Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

Here is that Storm that our friend Alyono mentions.

Date: 09-13 OCT 1990
Tropical Storm MARCO
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 22.50 -79.50 10/09/12Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 22.70 -80.70 10/09/18Z 30 1002 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 23.50 -81.40 10/10/00Z 30 1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
4 24.10 -82.00 10/10/06Z 35 996 TROPICAL STORM
5 24.60 -82.40 10/10/12Z 40 998 TROPICAL STORM
6 25.20 -82.50 10/10/18Z 45 994 TROPICAL STORM
7 26.00 -82.60 10/11/00Z 50 993 TROPICAL STORM
8 26.70 -82.60 10/11/06Z 55 989 TROPICAL STORM
9 27.50 -82.80 10/11/12Z 50 994 TROPICAL STORM
10 28.30 -83.00 10/11/18Z 40 998 TROPICAL STORM
11 29.10 -83.10 10/12/00Z 30 999 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12 30.70 -83.00 10/12/06Z 20 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13 32.00 -83.00 10/12/12Z 20 1005 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
14 33.20 -82.60 10/12/18Z 15 1005 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
15 33.70 -81.90 10/13/00Z 15 1006 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
16 33.80 -81.50 10/13/06Z 15 1007 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
17 34.00 -81.00 10/13/12Z 15 1007 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

[blp]

ROFLOL...gone nuts huh? You call a 45 mph TS gone nuts? You guys are a riot.

Ok I need stir up more interest on this thread so here it goes. Check out the FIM it has gone nuts.

True, the graphic has an eye like feature with 45mph winds so it is a little misleading, but it is 2013 you got something better.

[floridasun78]

you think this be invest by sunday afternoon?

[cycloneye]

you think this be invest by sunday afternoon?

It could be one anytime especially if it gets to 20% or above in 48 hours.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My opinion on this carribean wave: http://goo.gl/TlvjgI
I say 20/40 at the moment


I agree with wxman57

[Sanibel]

Appears to be some twisting down there.

[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM much faster and brings a 1009 low into mid Texas coast now....hmmmm

[ROCK]

0z CMC now further west than last run

[GeneratorPower]

Well here in Fort Myers on the sunny SW Florida coast I can tell you we are in a flood situation right now. Ponding water all over Charlotte, Lee, and Collier counties. The drainage canals are higher than I've seen them. This weak TS into SW Florida could be a real problem. Wxman57, is this likely to be a high rainfall slow mover or maybe more of a dry swirl?

[GeneratorPower]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

...SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-MONDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A 500 MB TROUGH SIT OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. RADAR DETECTS SHOWERS
TRAVERSING CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT DUAL
POLARIZATION RADAR ESTIMATES DO NOT SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE
SHOWERS...AND THE MOTION IS TOWARDS THE WEST BETWEEN 10 AND 15
MPH. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY NOT PRESENT A FLOODING THREAT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...AREAS STILL SATURATED COULD SEE PONDING OF WATER OR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CURRENT INUNDATION.

NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AS THE WEEKEND
DRAWS TO A CLOSE...KEEPING A SIMILAR PATTERN. WHILE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...A 500 MB
LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHICH COULD OPEN
THE DOOR FOR INCREASING POPS ON MONDAY ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET FOR POPS...TWEAKED UPWARD WHERE
NEEDED. FOR TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED A MAV/MET BLEND WITH A NUDGE
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. CLOUD COVER WILL CREATE SOME UNCERTAINTY
OVER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH GUIDANCE HAD SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY/...
WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN U/L FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S. U/L RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
RANGE AS SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WILL CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM
AS 28/00 GFS HAS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND 27/12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FALL EACH DAY...AND GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THAT
HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEK THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WOULD BE HIGH. SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
IN ITS WAKE AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A L/W TROUGH WHICH WILL FINALLY DRY THE
REGION OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

[chaser1]

0Z GFS continues to bring a weak low into the S.E. Gulf and limps it towards S. Florida as yet another poster child of the underwhelming 2013 tropical atlantic hurricane season. Another flop?

Take a quick look at this link for the 84 hr. 200mb map - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

There is a very large upper anticyclone smack over the general N. Central Caribbean area from 66 hr's straight through at least 150 hr.'s. Based on the 0Z GFS run, the low trying to develop somehow remains consistently about 200 miles displaced to the West, then Northwest of the center of the upper high. 200 miles can be the difference between southerly shear and potentially optimum outflow conditions. Since it remains to be seen if this upper high will materialize exactly in the forecasted location, or where exactly might an area of low pressure finally develop, this set up looks to be one that could potentially develop into something eventful.

[AJC3]

wonder if Marco 1990 would be a good analogue

Slapped together some coarse H50 reanalyses from 10/9/90 through 10/12/90. H50 pattern doesn't look similar at all.

[AJC3]

Here's a little better one...20M color contours instead of 50M

[summersquall]

NHC 2 am: 20/40

1. AN SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROUGH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY.

[floridasun78]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN...LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. AN SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROUGH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY.

[Hurricaneman]

Will probably be an invest in the morning

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[chaser1]

wonder if Marco 1990 would be a good analogue

Slapped together some coarse H50 reanalyses from 10/9/90 through 10/12/90. H50 pattern doesn't look similar at all

What about higher up? Steering aside, I'd be curious how similar (or dissimilar) the upper level condition roughly compared.

[AJC3]

What about higher up? Steering aside, I'd be curious how similar (or dissimilar) the upper level condition roughly compared.

Ask and you shall receive...

Remember, these values are in ms-1, so roughly double the #'s to come up with kts.

[chaser1]

What about higher up? Steering aside, I'd be curious how similar (or dissimilar) the upper level condition roughly compared.

Ask and you shall receive...

Remember, these values are in ms-1, so roughly double the #'s to come up with kts.
http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/1381/2vd8.png

Well THANK YOU, service with a smile !

Whew, projecting out to 10/9 and then comparing to 1990 - What a distinction. In spite of the appearant split flow back in '90, our own piece of upper air hell looks pretty grueling. Come 10/9, we're looking to see 40 knot westerlies as far south as 25N and nearly stretching across the entire Atlantic to Africa. Hmmm, wait a minute? Seems to remind me of June.

[chaser1]

Well, I'm gonna go out on a (very narrow) limb and guess that this Caribb. low will be the highlight of the season. That cant happen unless the upper air is pretty aligned with good outflow. I'm guessing that this will develop south of Haiti & E. Cuba and will bring a ton of rain on the islands, S. Florida, and Bahamas before turning NE, remaining E. of Florida.

......................or then again...., perhaps this will move NW, remain sheared and come across S. Florida as a sheared weak low.