Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #41 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:27 pm

Why are we using the ECMWF to determine if this is going to develop or not? How many times does it need to be said that the ECMWF has terrible skill in indicating development of weak tropical cyclones? Use the GFS.

Hurricaneman · #42 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:36 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are we using the ECMWF to determine if this is going to develop or not? How many times does it need to be said that the ECMWF has terrible skill in indicating development of weak tropical cyclones? Use the GFS.

Looking a model tracks, they all pretty much landfall in the same spot around Tampa so that would be interesting in its own right

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#43 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 3:00 pm

Even though convection is firing off due to heavy shear, this already has some good looking outflow with it.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

Two ULLs already plugging in poleward outflow channels

One at 31N 72W and the other at 26N 56W.

If continues like this, should get vorticity down to the surface in a couple days and have an anti-cyclone over it.

Gotta remember, upper troposphere is now cooling down which is aiding parcel lift and generating strong convection.

Same effect like DMAX, only 24 / 7.

floridasun78 · #44 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 3:46 pm

GCANE wrote:Even though convection is firing off due to heavy shear, this already has some good looking outflow with it.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

Two ULLs already plugging in poleward outflow channels

One at 31N 72W and the other at 26N 56W.

If continues like this, should get vorticity down to the surface in a couple days and have an anti-cyclone over it.

Gotta remember, upper troposphere is now cooling down which is aiding parcel lift and generating strong convection.

Same effect like DMAX, only 24 / 7.

dont see any thing on map sw Caribbean

#45 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 3:51 pm

FIM9 further west than GFS, GGEM.

Around a 50kt Tropical Storm toward the central FL Panhandle.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim9_jet:&runTime=2013092812&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

#46 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 3:55 pm

And look what is approaching the Bahamas from the SE at the end of this run.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2013092812&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

#47 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 3:57 pm

floridasun78 wrote:dont see any thing on map sw Caribbean

This is 200mb.

Good convection south of Haiti

#48 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:03 pm

Cyclonic convergence on MIMIC-TPW. Seems to be centered about 14N 78W

blp · #49 Postby **blp** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:15 pm

12z Euro high resolution now inline with GFS and CMC. Still a weak TS but it has been getting stronger on each run.

blp · #50 Postby **blp** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:21 pm

12z UKMET showing the low at 72 hrs. I think we have good consensus now on something getting going soon.

Hurricaneman · #51 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:36 pm

I think they may task recon for Monday if this still looks good later

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Hurricaneman · #52 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:13 pm

The 18zGFS is weaker and to the east towards the Key West heading north on the spine of the Peninsula of Florida.

Heres a review of trends

GFS seems to be weaker
FIM is weaker
Euro is stronger
Canadian is stronger
NAVGEM seems to be holding steady

so if you use a model blend there is no clear trend so well see if this goes the way of the FIM and GFS with weaker with each run or towards the Euro and Canadian with a stronger system with each run

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#53 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:13 pm

18z GFS has a weak TS over South Florida

Whatever developes can't see more then a messy sheared tc affecting fl.

#54 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:13 pm

Latest GFS has system further east over south florida.

Hurricaneman · #55 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:15 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Latest GFS has system further east over south florida.

seems to develop where the convection is and not where the best vorticity is which is why you really need a low to form for more accurate model runs

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#56 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:39 pm

Hurricaneman · #57 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:45 pm

This looks like it will get invest status in mere hours with it organizing like it is, but its still a wave at the moment

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#58 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:50 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:Latest GFS has system further east over south florida.

seems to develop where the convection is and not where the best vorticity is which is why you really need a low to form for more accurate model runs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yep, there has been very little consistency in strength and landfall...panhandle to cuba in play

#59 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:57 pm

boca · #60 Postby **boca** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:14 pm

It looks like the whole area is lifting up towards Haiti but I know its not the case til the low actually forms.

Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

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