Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

[Dean4Storms]

Last FIM9 run has a possible hurricane in the central Gulf turning NNE at the end of its run.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim9_jet:&runTime=2013092800&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

[jlauderdal]

ajc3 had a clever write up this am for the extended thus my bear watch...go to melbourne nws disco to see his work

[northjaxpro]

I am going to take a wait and see approach with this potential system. The 2013 Atlantic season has been such a huge tease as many systems have croaked due to hostile conditions.

I'll check back Monday to see what the models are showing, but based on the set-up the models are displaying for next week, maybe, just maybe, we may FINALLY have a system to really monitor.

[Sanibel]

This time of year you can get a cold front in the Gulf that shunts the tropical air into the SW Caribbean. I've seen this breed storms before, however in 2013 who knows.

[HurricaneBelle]

The track (but not of course the intensity) suggested by the 00Z GFS is quite reminiscent of the infamous 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane, developed near Panama/Honduras, drifted NNW and then bent NNE and NE toward Florida.

[blp]

The 12z GFS starts getting area going in 42 hrs. Looks like a solid TS on the model around landfall. Could be stronger since it will be going over a primed area. Makes landfall just south of Tampa in 126hrs. The trend has been stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems that the only models not developing this are the NAVGEM and ECMWF which is highly unlikely with the convection down there, the GFS and FIM models seem to be getting a better grasp of the convection in the Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z GFS starts getting area going in 42 hrs. Looks like a solid TS on the model around landfall. Could be stronger since it will be going over a primed area. Makes landfall just south of Tampa in 126hrs. The trend has been stronger.

Right now it looks somewhere between FL Panhandle to Key West. FL is in play. ECM, FIM9, NAVGEM further west before turning NE with the GFS and GGEM further east into extreme SE Gulf before the turn NE.

[Riptide]

This is the only storm this season where I think it has a good shot of becoming a major. Not to scare anyone but this looks like a prime opportunity due to the return of the MJO and surrounding moist environment. One aspect going against it is time.

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Looking more defined on the latest GFS

[Blown Away]

Here is the run down...


12z GFS has possible TS off SW Florida coast in 5 days...


12z GEM/Canadian has possible TD/TS off SW Florida in 5 days...


12z FIM has possible TD/TS off SW Florida coast in 8-9 days...


TAFB has a developed low in 72 hours moving NW...


WPC has a low off the Yucatan in 6 days...

[AtlanticWind]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

[jlauderdal]

This is the only storm this season where I think it has a good shot of becoming a major. Not to scare anyone but this looks like a prime opportunity due to the return of the MJO and surrounding moist environment. One aspect going against it is time.

another aspect is zero model support

[johngaltfla]

Not what we need this time of year. This is the prime season for Florida GOM hurricanes and I really hope this takes the eastern route but I have my doubts looking at the models and some of the forecasts.

[jlauderdal]

Not what we need this time of year. This is the prime season for Florida GOM hurricanes and I really hope this takes the eastern route but I have my doubts looking at the models and some of the forecasts.

look at the euro if you want to calm your nerves

[Alyono]

that run indicates that the FIM has really backed off of its earlier run. The overall trend appears to be little change, not a better defined TS

[floridasun78]

so you think this other area dont form ? i see alot you have nov 30 here already

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro is not there yet but it has come closer to the idea of the GFS so it looks like the Euro is coming aboard with this too so unless something unforeseen happens this will probably be a go for development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post some images of the 12z Euro?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[blp]

No high resolution yet. Low resolution is further east over central gulf then Low crossing Florida.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013092812!!/