Convection South of Gulf of Tehuantepec
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hurricanes1234
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Convection South of Gulf of Tehuantepec
There is an area of thunderstorms to the south of the Tehuantepec Gulf. Does anyone think this will form? I'll post an image later.
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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hurricanes1234
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Re: Convection South of Gulf of Tehuantepec
I am just guessing this is a "flared-up" part of the ITCZ in this basin. Everything, except for warm water, is against it. I personally think this season in the ePac is pretty much done, unless the MJO can come and change around the pattern significantly. No known type of tropical cyclone can survive that moisture-starved, sinking air and wind shear.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Yellow Evan
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hurricanes1234
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Area of Interest Expected to Form in Pacific
This is the thread for an area of low pressure expected to form near the southwestern coast of Mexico. It is the area that has been meandering south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As usual, what is the model support? A TS or hurricane?
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO LAND IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. WHEN THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW TO LAND IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. WHEN THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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supercane4867
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Re: Area of Interest Expected to Form in Pacific
00z ECMWF only develop this into a depression but has a TS coming after it
Not much on the GFS though
Not much on the GFS though
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Hurricaneman
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