Texas Fall 2013

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article! Rain chances will be returning to Texas this weekend!
http://www.examiner.com/article/rain-ch ... is-weekend

[weatherdude1108]

After this week, Summer temps behind us!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH GULF RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY MORNING PRODUCING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE COUNTRY...THE SEA-BREEZE...AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN PASSES THROUGH
ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND POSSIBLY PROPAGATING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 06Z-18 SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO AVERAGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AREAWIDE...AND A FEW SPOTS
MAY RECEIVE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HILL COUNTRY.SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT MUCH DRIER...AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER STRING OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL
NIGHTS...AND MILD DAYS NEXT WORKWEEK. BASED ON THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH THIS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...IT APPEARS
THE LAST OF THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE SEASON WILL BE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

May be a bit off topic, but im in the market for a new weather station since mine isnt sending the temp to the home station anymore.

Im willing to spend up to $150-$200 for a good one. One that sends data to my mac, or pc would be awesome too so i can see the data 24 hours a day. Any suggestions?

[weatherdude1108]

May be a bit off topic, but im in the market for a new weather station since mine isnt sending the temp to the home station anymore.

Im willing to spend up to $150-$200 for a good one. One that sends data to my mac, or pc would be awesome too so i can see the data 24 hours a day. Any suggestions?

Sorry to keep off topic, but that brings up my weather station issue. It stopped receiving rainfall data. It picks up the temperature, humidity, and wind, but not the rain. It started a couple weeks ago. It started working on its own before the last rain last week, then stopped once the rain was done. It's a Lacrosse. I tried resynching several times. Worked fine with everything except rain. I haven't even had it a year! Christmas present. I put an email into them. Anyway, hope the cold and rain comes back!

[Ntxw]

Im willing to spend up to $150-$200 for a good one. One that sends data to my mac, or pc would be awesome too so i can see the data 24 hours a day. Any suggestions?

For the price and reliability I think an Ambient weather station may be your cup of tea.

http://www.ambientweather.com/amws2080.html

If budget is not an issue and you are willing to put a little more investment for quality, one of the Davis instrument stations are the best way to go IMO.

======

Back on topic, models still showing half inch to one inch + rainfall totals later this weekend. Here is the latest HPC map.

[weatherdude1108]

Nice! We need to keep the soils moist and Red Flag Warnings at bay this Fall/Winter. That would be preferable!

[ravyrn]

We may need to add an s and name this thread Texas Falls 2013. There are a lot of dead trees from the drought of 2011 around here. I was eating dinner on the porch outside cause it's pretty nice out in the evenings now. In the 20 minutes I was relaxing on the porch, I heard two trees fall. Then had to run an errand after dark and on my way to town, there's a tree across the highway. It's a backwoods farm to market road and luckily no one was coming the other way and I was able to swerve and miss it. It was right after a hill so no way of seeing it til you hit the crest of the hill, going 55mph, with not much reaction time going 55mph. I really hope no one wrecked into it. I called the Sheriff's office to report it. They didn't have anyone there when I came back home and it was still across the road. My saw it broke but I found a traffic cone in my shop so I went and placed it at the top of the hill so people will hopefully slow down for that and then see the tree. Thankfully our burn ban has been lifted. Got so many limbs piled up from my walking trails across my 16 acres. I'll be having one heck of a bonfire the first evening that hits into the 40s.

[Portastorm]

We may need to add an s and name this thread Texas Falls 2013. There are a lot of dead trees from the drought of 2011 around here. I was eating dinner on the porch outside cause it's pretty nice out in the evenings now. In the 20 minutes I was relaxing on the porch, I heard two trees fall. Then had to run an errand after dark and on my way to town, there's a tree across the highway. It's a backwoods farm to market road and luckily no one was coming the other way and I was able to swerve and miss it. It was right after a hill so no way of seeing it til you hit the crest of the hill, going 55mph, with not much reaction time going 55mph. I really hope no one wrecked into it. I called the Sheriff's office to report it. They didn't have anyone there when I came back home and it was still across the road. My saw it broke but I found a traffic cone in my shop so I went and placed it at the top of the hill so people will hopefully slow down for that and then see the tree. Thankfully our burn ban has been lifted. Got so many limbs piled up from my walking trails across my 16 acres. I'll be having one heck of a bonfire the first evening that hits into the 40s.

Interesting you should mention this ... I was talking to someone at my office about dead trees as a result of the drought. They were telling me that the City of Austin had to stop picking up/cutting dead trees because it blew through its budget for said task about halfway through the budget year. If that is the case here in Austin, I'm sure that tale is being repeated in many communities around the state. Sad stuff. All the more reason why we need a few Nino years!

[Ntxw]

So compared to what they showed over the weekend, the trend has been wetter for late this weekend. I've been puzzled as to why with such dry air in place and return flow not arriving soon enough even though 2+ pwats are good but still. Well I think the answer is down in the EPAC off the SW Mexican coast. Invest 92E!



Chances of it becoming a Hurricane is actually small. But if it does that will definitely lengthen the duration of rain. Even if it doesn't get named, odds are the trough will still pull up moisture from it to some degree anyway. Should be a feature for us to keep an eye on next several days.

[weatherdude1108]

You just provided music to my eyes!

[Tireman4]

I know it is Fall, but........

95 yesterday as a high

Today and tomorrow, 95...yeesh...I know the front is coming. I get that, but good gosh almighty.....


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... kMg9n_hdAd

[Ntxw]

I know it is Fall, but........

95 yesterday as a high

Today and tomorrow, 95...yeesh...I know the front is coming. I get that, but good gosh almighty.....

DFW and Houston are in top 5 hottest Septembers ever. Regardless of what happens the last week we're going to finish either tying with 2005 (hottest for both) or just below it. Can't find the records for Austin or San Antonio but either way 2013 is the summer that was delayed not denied. Analog composite held well showing warmer fall.

[Portastorm]

I did a little research. Currently, Austin (KATT, Camp Mabry) has a monthly average temperature for September 2013 of 84.4. That would tie the all-time record average high for the month. So it appears we would be in keeping with Houston and DFW.

[weatherdude1108]

Rain chances for the Austin and metro area have bumped up from 30% to 50% for Saturday night and to 40% Sunday. Hill Country to I35 showing the most QPF.!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT... THE
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND THIS COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS TO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-35 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE STILL EXPECT
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL TREND RAIN CHANCES UPWARD SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN IT/S RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER... AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE 25/12Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN...
THE COLD FRONT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WE WON/T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. WE DID OPT TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL AREAS ON
SUNDAY AND WILL THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT APPEAR GREATEST
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY INTO WILLIAMSON COUNTY WHERE AROUND 1 INCH
IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE... AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 2" ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose corroberates the ewx rain forecast:

Most of today’s forecast models are showing the potential for some nice totals of rain this weekend. This afternoon’s National Weather Service rainfall forecast indicates the highest totals this weekend will occur across the Hill Country, with amounts close to 2 inches. Totals of 0.5-1 inch are shown for areas east of Interstate 35.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[gboudx]

I'm loving the look of the DFW NWS graphic showing a wide swath of 2" rain this weekend. We should get more runoff into the area lakes if this pans out, since the ground soaked up most of what fell last week.

[srainhoutx]

Typhoon Pabuk remnants screaming across the Pacific Ocean are a sign the westerly's are about to kick in. Usually these Western Pacific storms moving E wreak havoc with the guidance and I suspect this storm will be no different. There are indications that a very deep trough will be carved out across the Western US as the system moves toward the Pacific NW bringing significant low elevation rains and higher elevation snow totals. My hunch is the second week of October may bring that first legitimate shot of colder air to Texas as the jet stream buckles and drops a bit further S than the Canadian border. We will see.

[Ntxw]

Aggiecutter will be nearing 10+ inches this month if the forecast holds true. 4-5+ for DFW, Austin, and Houston to complete September that would make it one of the few above normal precip months this year.

HPC

[Ntxw]

I've been holding off for consistent model support, what srain noted is very likely to happen the second week into October (5th or so). Wxman57: < >. I can sense Tireman4 is tingling with joy!

True, blue fall front

[Ellsey]

Is that a choir of chilly fall weather angels I hear singing?