WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
21:00 UTC.
WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A
STEADY DECLINE IN DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
DEFINED WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE INFLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPACTED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOUR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM MATCHES UP WITH THE DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEE-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING
LAND INTERACTIONS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A STEADY DECLINE THROUGH
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A
STEADY DECLINE IN DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
DEFINED WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE INFLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPACTED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOUR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM MATCHES UP WITH THE DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEE-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING
LAND INTERACTIONS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A STEADY DECLINE THROUGH
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
The fact that its eye has long obscured doesn't aid dvorak numbers for Usagi at all
We have to wait till landfall to see if there's any available observation helps determine the actual intensity
We have to wait till landfall to see if there's any available observation helps determine the actual intensity
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- 'CaneFreak
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Eye is warming again...a nice burst of -60 to -80 cloud tops the past 6 hours or so...that's worrisome...however, I do wonder if this will miss Hong Kong to the north a bit...current forecast has it a little further north and I am wondering if this trend will continue...has to go due west at this point to impact Hong Kong directly and the current satellite loops still show a wnw motion...hmmmm...
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
If track does trend more north it will cause more impact on Shenzhen than HongKong
Very similar:
Usagi
Dujuan
Very similar:
Usagi
Dujuan
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
00z Best Track stays at 100kts.
17W USAGI 130922 0000 21.8N 117.9E WPAC 100 948
17W USAGI 130922 0000 21.8N 117.9E WPAC 100 948
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
latest visible loop... looks like it's strengthening again
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
T5.5 from JTWC
TPPN11 PGTW 220032
A. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI)
B. 21/2332Z
C. 21.8N
D. 117.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1956Z 21.5N 118.5E MMHS
21/2101Z 21.5N 118.4E SSMS
BERMEA
TPPN11 PGTW 220032
A. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI)
B. 21/2332Z
C. 21.8N
D. 117.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1956Z 21.5N 118.5E MMHS
21/2101Z 21.5N 118.4E SSMS
BERMEA
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
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- brunota2003
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
CPA to hong kong- 17 miles...
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- brunota2003
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I saw this on twitter:
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... _china.gif
Looks like the outer eye is starting to shrink! Strengthening?
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... _china.gif
Looks like the outer eye is starting to shrink! Strengthening?
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Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
- 'CaneFreak
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Re:
The core almost always tightens up for most tropical cyclones when they approach land as the friction begins to increase. I think it is holding its own or maybe even beginning to slightly weaken a bit as expected. We have almost lost all of the -80 C cloud tops as of this writing.
brunota2003 wrote:I saw this on twitter:
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... _china.gif
Looks like the outer eye is starting to shrink! Strengthening?
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- brunota2003
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Re: Re:
'CaneFreak wrote:The core almost always tightens up for most tropical cyclones when they approach land as the friction begins to increase. I think it is holding its own or maybe even beginning to slightly weaken a bit as expected. We have almost lost all of the -80 C cloud tops as of this writing.
While the greys have disappeared on AVN, the eye has warmed and become more distinct, both on IR and Visible!
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Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon
bad news...strengthening is occuring...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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