Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ninel conde]

Thanks UStropic. If somebody would have said this season would look like that, they would of been laughed right off this forum.

i almost was when i lowered my numbers to 9/2/0 in late july and said that there would be no hurricane landfalls in the US due to the pattern change in aug that featured numerous trofs racing off the coast and saying there would be no major hurricanes. i also brought up 1993 as the best comparison to what this season would be, though we wont be seeing a major cane scrape hatteras.

[TheStormExpert]

I have a funny feeling just by looking at the Atlantic satellite that this season is about ready to shut down and end early. That big trough tracking across the eastern half of the U.S. is just one thing aiding my current thinking.

[tolakram]

Thanks UStropic. If somebody would have said this season would look like that, they would of been laughed right off this forum.

i almost was when i lowered my numbers to 9/2/0 in late july and said that there would be no hurricane landfalls in the US due to the pattern change in aug that featured numerous trofs racing off the coast and saying there would be no major hurricanes. i also brought up 1993 as the best comparison to what this season would be, though we wont be seeing a major cane scrape hatteras.

Not one of those things is the reason for a slow season or lack of a US hit. East coast hit, perhaps. Are you looking for a reversal of the upper tropospheric flow to end the season early, like 1993?

[hurricanes1234]

I have a funny feeling just by looking at the Atlantic satellite that this season is about ready to shut down and end early. That big trough tracking across the eastern half of the U.S. is just one thing aiding my current thinking.

I can't assure you that this would turn out true, but I can assure you that you're not alone in your thinking. I also think this season will end early, probably in early November (first day or two), for the absolute latest. Of course, I am not saying it will happen, but I can imagine an early end to 2013, maybe around mid to late October, maybe even earlier if storms cease to develop. That's just my current thought, which is always subject to change.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherGuesser]

If this last couple of years of odd weather has taught me anything, it's never say never.


Cool summers, warm winters, record rains and snows, late blizzards, Sandy, predictions of epic flooding on the Red River that didn't come true, Colorado floods, odd patterns on the Mississippi river, etc., etc., etc .


Come December, I'll believe we're in the clear.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have a funny feeling just by looking at the Atlantic satellite that this season is about ready to shut down and end early. That big trough tracking across the eastern half of the U.S. is just one thing aiding my current thinking.

We need to be careful when declaring the season a bust in mid-September. There's a reason it extends until the last day of November. The MJO has much more of an effect on tropical cyclone development in October and November so it could spark at least one major storm regardless of how the rest of the season has played out. Declaring a season a bust also gives a false sense of complacency...we know what happens then.

[Blown Away]

Globals showing hardly anything through Oct 7th, so we are looking pretty good at this point IMO...

[Hammy]

last year we had a bunch of hurricanes that struggled and only two barely became majors, this year we had a bunch of storms that struggled and only two managed to barely become hurricanes, there's part of me that can't help but wonder if next year will just be a bunch of struggling tropical depressions.

[Cyclenall]

Past the peak by over a week now and here is our current map for this year. Who would have thought it would have been this lackluster to date?

No one could have guessed. Something I'd love to know is who on this planet predicted or closely predicted what we have seen this season in the Atlantic? I have not a single person or entity that caught on to this in my mind. Everyone is eating crow by the boat-loads, everyone has egg on their faces, and the experts have been taken to a deep dark place they thought they'd never see with the advancements we've made in this science. How often can you say a prediction pretty much unanimously was the total opposite of the observed outcome?

last year we had a bunch of hurricanes that struggled and only two barely became majors, this year we had a bunch of storms that struggled and only two managed to barely become hurricanes, there's part of me that can't help but wonder if next year will just be a bunch of struggling tropical depressions.

I think your right . I challenge anyone to pick a year that had the lamest tropical cyclone activity ever that isn't 2013, nothing comes close to this bore...1997, 1994, 1993, 1983, 1981, 1977, 1968...doesn't touch 2013's epic fail as a whole. There were more interesting features to be observed in any of those listed compared to now.

If someone had informed me about this outcome, I would have never even paid attention to the tropics and just completely ignored it. I feel bad just for investing time in this raunchiness. I didn't learn squat, nothing interesting, nothing "fun", just fecal convection amidst dry air. People kept saying "wait another 2 weeks", well I've waited and its even worse than what we already had (Dorian!). The lid is a 1 ton cylinder block so it never popped off anywhere. The gyre that produced those storms should have never existed, poor performance for the peak of hurricane season in any set of conditions. Ingrid fell apart for no reason before it hit Mexico when it was suppose to do the opposite...can't reverse a season when that is all that has taken place. 95L was a lock to become the next hurricane in the Gulf but because it existed in 2013, instead it didn't even become a respectable Invest and never made it to TD status!!! I was even blown away by that after all this. That is why October will likely fail as well because I can't see anything to change this pattern of nothing. I already see record low amounts of activity on here too and everyone is quickly moving on. 1 week goes by with 1 new member, and 1 new page in the model thread in September!! The season has trolled us good.

[Hammy]

The years I've found with less activity than this were, 1968 being the last time prior to this year with nothing higher than Cat 2. And that will likely change because I believe Gladys is listed as a Cat 2 on the list of US landfalls in HURDAT. So we have to go back to 1925 for the last season that had no Cat 2, and also the last season to have two or less hurricanes. This is unquestionably the weakest season in the entire satellite era.

[WeatherGuesser]

This is unquestionably the weakest season in the entire satellite era.

With two full months to go.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, 2013 is definitely going to be labeled as "the year that wasn't."..... Again, this is great for the land areas, but gosh, at least it could have given us a couple of cat 3/cat 4 pure oceans spinners to track... I think it's kind of like how we had those few years where there was TOO much activity, now we seem to be entering a cycle of weak storms that struggle due to bad conditions.......The question of course is when will we break out of this cycle?

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: Globals showing hardly anything through Oct 7th, so we are looking pretty good at this point IMO...

6z GFS has a storm making landfall in Southwest Florida moving northeast on October 5th.

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http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gf ... ip_p24.gif [/url]

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http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gf ... ip_p24.gif [/url]

[ConvergenceZone]

*quote edited out by vbhoutex due to content*

I've had a couple of close relatives myself that have been in hurricanes and lost their homes... Luckily they were able to rebuild their homes, but they did choose the same area close to the coast because they love the area so much, so I'm crossing my fingers that it's not a deja vu with them again..... Anyway, I don't think that anyone thinks that we are free from anymore tropical storms this year, but looking at years past, usually when the conditions quiet down extremely quicky in late September in addition to weak atmospheric conditions(shear, lack of moisture etc) , it usually signifies an early end to the season.....True, anything is possible, and I'm sure everyone(including me) will glance at the maps from time to time to see if something just happened to somehow find ideal conditions ...., but we are playing the odds here, and there really isn't evidence otherwise....This year I'm not even paying much attention to the models, because they have been really really bad and all over the place, so even they are confused, LOL... But you never say never. Even a cat 5 is possible in November....., but again, just playing the odds here

[Yellow Evan]

I don't live in a real hurricane zone, but IMO it would take like 2 or 3 landfalling major's to make the AHS not a bust. And the odds of that happening are smaller than the season ending at 9-2-0.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is a thought for all of you:

It only takes one.

We only need one major hurricane landfall to make this season one for the record books. October is more than capable of allowing that. October frequently produces Caribbean monsters. Where they go from there remains to be seen.

Is it about total numbers or the one storm that changes your life forever? I can personally attest to the 1992 hurricane season.

Stay vigilant.

[Ntxw]

This is unquestionably the weakest season in the entire satellite era.

If the season ended today our ACE count would land us number 2 lowest behind 1983. However, 1983 did have Alicia which is formidable and arguably gave the quality to an otherwise shut down season. So statistically speaking it would not be the weakest season when accounting overall output as a whole. I think the odds are growing quickly as time passes for us to finish in the top 5-10 lowest. Top 5 lowest years were all turning on El Nino except 1983 which was coming out of a super Nino and all were during the -AMO. Those two factors alone makes 2013 quite anomalous and difficult to explain thus far.

I'm interested to find out how forecasters approach next season (and beyond) when the main factors typically used has faltered even when they mostly have been correct. Will they see 2013 as anomalous and revert back using those same factors or take a different approach?

On a personal note I'd like to make a comment about postings. I know people are frustrated either way (one side giving up one side not willing to give up). Lets try to keep things civil and respect other's opinions. Everyone has a right to it on this board and name calling or attacks really doesn't achieve anything for the betterment of understanding and information exchange. If you believe the season will end post reasons why and back it up with data, same goes for the other side.

[RL3AO]

2013 ACE

Usagi - 23.165
North Atlantic - 23.055

[psyclone]

Here is a thought for all of you:

It only takes one.

We only need one major hurricane landfall to make this season one for the record books. October is more than capable of allowing that. October frequently produces Caribbean monsters. Where they go from there remains to be seen.

Is it about total numbers or the one storm that changes your life forever? I can personally attest to the 1992 hurricane season.

Stay vigilant.

I completely concur. I dump my vigilance on Halloween (I just generally chuck june, july and November since they tend to produce little in the way of meaningful activity most seasons). But we can't forget about October even though we've had many recent snoozer Octobers. Folks especially in the Yucatan, Cuba, the Caymans, Florida and the Bahamas really need to keep an eye on that region and I certainly intend to. Having said all of that, I have no problem with anyone characterizing the season as a "bust" unless and until it decides to demonstrate something to the contrary. so far, in my view, it has been a colossal bust.

[WeatherEmperor]

2013 ACE

Usagi - 23.165
North Atlantic - 23.055

Thank you for posting this. That really puts things in perspective. Honestly, i had no clue the Atlantic Ace was THAT low. Who would of thought this was going to happen this year?

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