2013 Atl season ends at 13/2/0 or will be more thru end?

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,instead of doing the monthly polls that I have done this season,I am creating this poll to see how the members vote on how will this 2013 Atlantic season will end. If any member wants to comment about how this season will end and if the season will have a major cane go ahead. The poll will close on September 30 at 5:38 PM EDT.

I voted for three.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Three sounds reasonable. Got my vote. All storms though. No more hurricanes.

[Ntxw]

I vote 3 more named systems. 2 in October and 1 November. I also see that the NAO is about to tank. This is a little troubling, the past 2 Octobers featured a tanking -NAO and something came into the East Coast. Don't know if it will work the same way but that would be my area to watch for last best threat to the US coastline.

[Andrew92]

I may be bullish knowing how quite it's been but I'm going with five. I think we will get Jerry pretty soon looking at the models but probably won't be overly strong. I also think a couple of Caribbean and subtropical-latitude storms each will also form in October. But only two or three become hurricanes, with maybe one major.

-Andrew92

[Frank P]

Three..

[tolakram]

4

[ninel conde]

i hope it ends now as my updated forecast was 9/2/0. neg nao is beginning to take control which should make things even more negative. 1 or 2 weak storms possible.

[JtSmarts]

12/4/0

[lilybeth]

I vote for four more with 2 hurricanes and one major.

[hurricanes1234]

Currently, I would only expect about 3-4 named storms for the rest of the season, but no major hurricanes. Maybe one Category 2, or possibly even a 115 mph Category 3, but nothing higher. Conditions this year don't seem to support intense hurricanes.

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[Hurricane Jed]

Apparently some outlooks have projected an active October. Personally I'm happy as is. We received a good amount of rainfall from Manuel, so personally I am good as far as tropical weather is concerned.

[euro6208]

looks like the MJO won't return to the western hemisphere until the first half of october...

very quiet period ahead and i say 2 more weak tropical storms, one in october and another in november...

[dexterlabio]

Was there really a non-El Nino year (especially a cool neutral year) that exhibited very low activity? It just seems so odd to think about it unless we all declare this season as an anomaly (the "inverse" anomaly to that of 2005). For now I think there will be three more tropical cyclones before the year ends: 1 moderate tropical storm (Jerry), a major hurricane (Karen), and another weak tropical storm (Lorenzo).


Some models are showing a possible TS off Cape Verde, and that could be Jerry. I don't expect it to become a hurricane though, given the hostile environment and the Atlantic being in the dry phase of MJO. Things may change when the MJO pulse arrives in the Caribbean (maybe last week of October). The untapped energy in the area might support a hurricane, and the fact that it will be on MJO life support gives a likelihood of a strong system out of this one, possibly a major. It's odd to think that there won't be at least one significant hurricane for a non-Nino year, so I give this possibility. Lastly, another weak TS will apear in November to finish the season the way it started.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

i hope it ends now as my updated forecast was 9/2/0. neg nao is beginning to take control which should make things even more negative. 1 or 2 weak storms possible.

Where do you get that the negative NAO is unfavorable for development?

[ninel conde]

i hope it ends now as my updated forecast was 9/2/0. neg nao is beginning to take control which should make things even more negative. 1 or 2 weak storms possible.

Where do you get that the negative NAO is unfavorable for development?

neg NAO is always unfavorable for landfalls which is why landfalls are down since the neg NAO has dominated the last 4 seasons. this time of year especially the neg NAO stops development for several reasons. it forces stronger and stronger fronts moving off the east coast and causes a strong east coast trof which kills in close development anywhere except the extreme south BOC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

i hope it ends now as my updated forecast was 9/2/0. neg nao is beginning to take control which should make things even more negative. 1 or 2 weak storms possible.

Where do you get that the negative NAO is unfavorable for development?

neg NAO is always unfavorable for landfalls which is why landfalls are down since the neg NAO has dominated the last 4 seasons. this time of year especially the neg NAO stops development for several reasons. it forces stronger and stronger fronts moving off the east coast and causes a strong east coast trof which kills in close development anywhere except the extreme south BOC.

It's not as simple as negative NAO = out to sea, positive NAO = landfalls. In fact, the NAO is practically useless when dealing with Atlantic hurricane tracks; it's definitely beneficial for winter systems though. Many big storms for the USA have come during the negative NAO, but again, it's really a moot point. It depends on the placement of highs and lows just as much as it does intensity (the NAO just describes a pressure difference).

[northtxboy]

I went with 6 or more. 6 hurricanes 2 becomming majors and 2 more tropical storms.

[TheStormExpert]

I put 2 more storms, either both in October before the season quickly shuts down, or one in October and another in early-mid November. Option one seems more likely IMO though. Odds of one of these two storms becoming a hurricane are slim.

[CrazyC83]

I think we get two more spurts of storms (perhaps 2-3 in each) in early October with the MJO and at the end of October into early November assuming the MJO returns. Outside of those, perhaps 1 or 2 more storms - probably late season storms of subtropical origins.

[CrazyC83]

Was there really a non-El Nino year (especially a cool neutral year) that exhibited very low activity? It just seems so odd to think about it unless we all declare this season as an anomaly (the "inverse" anomaly to that of 2005). For now I think there will be three more tropical cyclones before the year ends: 1 moderate tropical storm (Jerry), a major hurricane (Karen), and another weak tropical storm (Lorenzo).


Some models are showing a possible TS off Cape Verde, and that could be Jerry. I don't expect it to become a hurricane though, given the hostile environment and the Atlantic being in the dry phase of MJO. Things may change when the MJO pulse arrives in the Caribbean (maybe last week of October). The untapped energy in the area might support a hurricane, and the fact that it will be on MJO life support gives a likelihood of a strong system out of this one, possibly a major. It's odd to think that there won't be at least one significant hurricane for a non-Nino year, so I give this possibility. Lastly, another weak TS will apear in November to finish the season the way it started.

Except for a strong El Nino in 1972-73, it was pretty similar in most of the 1970s. This was in the early satellite era, but a few storms may be mis-classified due to the fact they hadn't got Dvorak figured out yet, so maybe add 1 to 3 additional storms most years in reality.

1970: 10/5/2 (weak La Nina)
1971: 13/6/1 (weak La Nina)
1972: 7/3/0 (strong El Nino)
1973: 8/4/1 (transition to strong La Nina) <--- oddity!!!! shouldn't it have been like 1995, 1998 or 2010?
1974: 11/4/2 (cool Neutral)
1975: 9/6/3 (moderate La Nina) <--- somewhat like 1996 and 1999
1976: 10/6/2 (warm Neutral)
1977: 6/5/1 (warm Neutral) <--- really low for such
1978: 12/5/2 (cool Neutral)
1979: 9/5/2 (warm Neutral)