ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like it could be inland in about 6 hours.

Agree. Whatever is possibly left of this looks to move inland sometime tonight. Guess its not to early to write this system off now

[Portastorm]

Looks like it could be inland in about 6 hours.

Agree. Whatever is possibly left of this looks to move inland sometime tonight. Guess its not to early to write this system off now

Well, the National Hurricane Center doesn't appear to be agree with you nor your analysis. I'd be a bit careful about flying that ROFLAMO emoticon around too much at this point. But we can all check back tomorrow morning and see if anything has moved inland.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

95L is a mess right now but circulation is getting near convection.

[Hammy]

Looks like it could be inland in about 6 hours.

Agree. Whatever is possibly left of this looks to move inland sometime tonight. Guess its not to early to write this system off now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-rgb-long.html
looking at movement, this probably won't be moving inland anytime tonight or tomorrow morning, as it appears to be moving WNW and seems to only be a half degree further west than it was seven hours ago, which if it keeps that pace, would still be slightly offshore by late tomorrow afternoon.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like it could be inland in about 6 hours.

Agree. Whatever is possibly left of this looks to move inland sometime tonight. Guess its not to early to write this system off now

Well, the National Hurricane Center doesn't appear to be agree with you nor your analysis. I'd be a bit careful about flying that ROFLAMO emoticon around too much at this point. But we can all check back tomorrow morning and see if anything has moved inland.

Not laughing at the fact about moving inland. Moreso laughing about how disorganized and ripped up it is today and even less models show this developing now. That's what's funny.

[MGC]

95L will have a difficult time organizing the next couple of days. The uppper air invironment is just not condusive to TC formation. Like others have posted here, I also think the outflow from Manual is the cause of the dry air pocket currently over the western GOM. I also disagree with JB, waters are plenty warm for TC genesis in the BOC. I would expect the NHC to slowly lower the chances of formation over the coming days......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ROCK]

agree....the 12Z CMC likes it and at 162hr hits the upper TX coast (Freeport).

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_28.png

the 12Z EURO sort of likes it....pretty sure this is 95L.....meanders in the SGOM and gets real close to TX.

[Portastorm]

Not laughing at the fact about moving inland. Moreso laughing about how disorganized and ripped up it is today and even less models show this developing now. That's what's funny.

Well, to give proper credit, you were right about the lack of organization on 95L. Many of us yesterday afternoon felt it would ramp up. It obviously hasn't.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon.

Good thing I only said development chances today were 99.99999%, as it looks like it's going to be the 0.00001% that wins out. No development today.

Knew I should have taken a bet on that.

[ROCK]

what's more important really (mods move this to wherever) is that the models all point a return to a typical TC season pattern with high pressure sitting off the EC...opens the GOM to whatever maybe lurking in the carib..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

what's more important really (mods move this to wherever) is that the models all point a return to a typical TC season pattern with high pressure sitting off the EC...opens the GOM to whatever maybe lurking in the carib..

But the million dollar question is will anything take advantage of it and how long will it last? Looking at models, really showing much of nothing rest of the month.

But on a more positive note we had two storms roll through here this afternoon and dropped an inch of rain with hopefully 95 contributing more this weekend.

[TJRE]

HPC day 1-3 QPF est


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[HurricaneTracker2031]

my graphical forecast for 95L: http://goo.gl/IMmHq9


95L's LLC is getting closer to convection.... I think it will develop Saturday as a TD/TS

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

I know NHC likes to maintain continuity but leaving this area at 60% seems way too bullish now.

Probably could have easily moved this from 70-80% to about 10-20% but that change would be too drastic.

Have to admit, a bit surprised about this one. Thought it would take off more than it did.

2013 looks to have taken another victim!

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Yup GatorCane

[tropicwatch]

The LLC sure seems more defined this afternoon than it did this morning.<br>

[PauleinHouston]

Interesting snippet from NWS Houston this afternoon re: 95L

FXUS64 KHGX 192104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS OBVIOUSLY ARRIVED. ONGOING PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF...BUT NOT DISSIPATE...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EVEN
DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE SEEN ON SAT PIX SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THERE.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...VERY DEEP MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW PRECIP TO EXPAND INLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NRN PARTS OF SE TX LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVENING AND START PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL. QUITE CONCERNED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM-
LIVINGSTON LINE FROM 6PM-6AM AS SEVERAL MODELS POINTING TOWARD
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS AREA CAN TAKE A BUNCH OF RAINFALL
THOUGH - ASSUMING IT ALL DOESN`T FALL AT ONCE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.

MODELS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT THAT WHAT WE WERE LOOKING AT YDAY AT
THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOW EXTREMELY LOW AS TO TIMING (**AND
IF**) THE DRIER AIR/FRONT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AT
ALL. HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN FOR NOW AND EXTENDED RAINFALL THRU A
GOOD PART OF THE DAY SAT AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES.

CIRCULATION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS THERE AND STILL ANTICIPATE A
NW MOVEMENT OF OFF THE LOWER TX COAST ON SAT. NOT SO SURE WE`LL
SEE MUCH FROM THE DEVELOPMENT STANDPOINT IN THE SHORT TERM. BUT
WHAT`S WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON IS THIS: ENERGY/PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS TO PASS IT BY LEAVING A LINGERING CLOUDS & TROF/BOUNDARY
NEAR THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS CIRCULATION COULD BE HANGING OUT
OFF THE TX COAST ALONG THIS MESS. WHAT HAPPENS FROM THERE IS
ANYONES GUESS. BUT I DON`T LIKE THAT ECMWF, CANADIAN, NAM12 ALL
SHOWING SOME FORM OF THIS. EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES INTO MIDWEEK THAT
CAN BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED. 47

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO down to 50%-50%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...THIS LOW STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH....AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013092000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 951W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[ozonepete]

Maybe this factor that JB says in tweet was the cause of 95L weakening.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m

Ingrid left alot of cool water in her wake, probably limiting 95L

he is dead flat wrong.

Waters never cooled below 26C. The issue is the atmosphere has been quite hostile. The models had a major upper air bust. I suspect Manuel is the culprit once again

I have to agree here. A TC has to be a strong hurricane (cat 2 or better) to upwell cold water. A cat 1 can cause upwelling of cold water if it stalls out over a patch of water for 2 days or more, but otherwise, Bastardi is all wet here. I'm amazed he would say something like that. He's supposed to be knowledgeable about tropical cyclones and that is basic TC physics.