ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[ROCK]

Good thing I only said development chances today were 99.99999%, as it looks like it's going to be the 0.00001% that wins out. No development today.

always leave yourself an out just in case....

[cycloneye]

Maybe this factor that JB says in tweet was the cause of 95L weakening.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m

Ingrid left alot of cool water in her wake, probably limiting 95L

[otowntiger]

Well the models really started backing off development yesterday - think only the crazy canadian develops anything of it now. Something about the tropical atmosphere thats keeping a lid on things this year. The long range GFS does show another western caribbean system in week 2 but I'm sure that phantom stuff right now. Oh well, next?

I still think that October will produce a Hurricane in the Western Caribbean and there is so much untapped warm water that it wouldn't surprise me to see a major storm before all is said and done.

given the way this season is playing out I'd be very surprised.

[cycloneye]

Down to 60% - 60%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED SOME TODAY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[otowntiger]

Good thing I only said development chances today were 99.99999%, as it looks like it's going to be the 0.00001% that wins out. No development today.

This has certainly been an unpredictable season.

[CourierPR]

Maybe this factor that JB says in tweet was the cause of 95L weakening.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m

Ingrid left alot of cool water in her wake, probably limiting 95L

He also said in another tweet that 95L's shape is not conducive for development.

[stormlover2013]

wonder if the cmc could be right doesn't start development until sunday.

[Frank2]

That shear map looks impressive - looks like early November instead of mid September...

My guess is that the season is about done (never say never, though)...

[Sanibel]

That shear map looks impressive - looks like early November instead of mid September...

My guess is that the season is about done (never say never, though)...

Sometimes early shear means no shear in October.

[Stormcenter]

It just needs some convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html

[Frank P]

Agree Stormcenter... To me it still has quite the vigorous low level swirl.. I have given up on so many in the past this year I think I am not ready to give up on 95L just yet...

[Alyono]

Maybe this factor that JB says in tweet was the cause of 95L weakening.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m

Ingrid left alot of cool water in her wake, probably limiting 95L

he is dead flat wrong.

Waters never cooled below 26C. The issue is the atmosphere has been quite hostile. The models had a major upper air bust. I suspect Manuel is the culprit once again

[Frank P]

Center of Circulation in red... trying to develop a feederband out of the south

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like it could be inland in about 6 hours.

[ROCK]

I am not sure it ill be inland anytime soon. Looks like its drifting now...but yes nice feeder band setting up south and west....draw that in the circulation and might be able to lift off some.

[poof121]

Given the troubles 95L is having right now, is there any chance that SE Louisiana might not get as much rain as originally forecast this weekend? I am planning on moving this weekend.

[Stormcenter]

I believe the bulk of the rain SE LA. is anticipating this weekend is mostly related to the approaching cold front and not 95L. IMO

Given the troubles 95L is having right now, is there any chance that SE Louisiana might not get as much rain as originally forecast this weekend? I am planning on moving this weekend.

[TJRE]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

TAFB 72 hrs cast
Possible -Dissipating-Tropical Cyclone
Heavens to Mergatroid



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Portastorm]

I believe the bulk of the rain SE LA. is anticipating this weekend is mostly related to the approaching cold front and not 95L. IMO

Given the troubles 95L is having right now, is there any chance that SE Louisiana might not get as much rain as originally forecast this weekend? I am planning on moving this weekend.

Actually, it is a combination of both. The front and associated trough will draw up moisture from the Gulf ... some of it obviously related to 95L.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My thoughts with 95L: http://goo.gl/RDiycn

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