ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This could get very interesting to watch get ready

[midnight8]

Until the models start to agree more this will be interesting to watch. I'm not ready by any means to even hazard a guess except to say the surface fuel is there for this thing to pop.

For us here on the Texas Gulf Coast the gas cans have been pulled out of hibernation but not filled yet.

Asked Kerry Cooper local Met if there was a chance of us being impacted in SE TX and he responded with 1 word. "No"

[ozonepete]

All systems go now. Nice hot tower popping off the coast.

[stormlover2013]

I know coop real well he isn't going to say maybe or yes he will say no untill something finally develops And then go from there

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, 95L is beginning to fire up. As Ozonepete alluded to above, nice hot tower building near the LLC. I think we will see this named tomorrow easily.

[ozonepete]

Has a lot of oceanic heat potential ahead of it.

[psyclone]

I agree with those that contend the system likely won't escape the BOC. I do think a plume of tropical moisture will advect northeastward ahead of the approaching front and deliver solid (and possibly heavy) rains over the southeast US including Florida with nothing west of New Orleans and remain convinced this will be a non event, tropical cyclone speaking, stateside. It certainly could be an issue wherever it eventually lands in Mexico assuming that's the way things play out.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Conditions generally are favorable for the formation of jerry next few days BUT once that trof digs into the gulf it's came over as upper level winds will increase pretty dramatically in the order 40-50kts. jerry is very likely to get entrained into cold front and get strung out . Looks like a rainy system for Florida the way things look to me.

[stormkite]

Wise men say only fools rush in.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TJRE]

TPW

ROLLIN AND TUMBLIN

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ronjon]

How about this possibility of a track that mirrors a 65 mph tropical storm in 1932.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/6/track.gif

[tropicwatch]

How about this possibility of a track that mirrors a 65 mph tropical storm in 1932.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/6/track.gif

Not out of the realm of possibility. I am not sold on the hanging around in the SW GOM or BOC for a week this time of year. But of course this year has proven to be somewhat unusual with the amount of shear and the difficulty of these systems getting there act together.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 203N, 920W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[wxman57]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon. Probably stays a TS. Moves to near Tampico Friday evening, stalls, then drifts south as the front approaches and sends dry air down the coast of MX. Tracks SE into northern BoC then NE-ENE along front toward Florida. May not be much of a storm by the time it arrives in FL, though. Could completely merge with the front by then.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon. Probably stays a TS. Moves to near Tampico Friday evening, stalls, then drifts south as the front approaches and sends dry air down the coast of MX. Tracks SE into northern BoC then NE-ENE along front toward Florida. May not be much of a storm by the time it arrives in FL, though. Could completely merge with the front by then.

not likely 2 b a TS ANYTIME soon. maybe in the 120hr frame

[Zanthe]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon. Probably stays a TS. Moves to near Tampico Friday evening, stalls, then drifts south as the front approaches and sends dry air down the coast of MX. Tracks SE into northern BoC then NE-ENE along front toward Florida. May not be much of a storm by the time it arrives in FL, though. Could completely merge with the front by then.

not likely 2 b a TS ANYTIME soon. maybe in the 120hr frame

Why do you say that, Drew? NHL says 70% Chance that it is well before the 120 hour frame.

[ozonepete]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon. Probably stays a TS. Moves to near Tampico Friday evening, stalls, then drifts south as the front approaches and sends dry air down the coast of MX. Tracks SE into northern BoC then NE-ENE along front toward Florida. May not be much of a storm by the time it arrives in FL, though. Could completely merge with the front by then.

not likely 2 b a TS ANYTIME soon. maybe in the 120hr frame

What data are you basing that on?

[psyclone]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon. Probably stays a TS. Moves to near Tampico Friday evening, stalls, then drifts south as the front approaches and sends dry air down the coast of MX. Tracks SE into northern BoC then NE-ENE along front toward Florida. May not be much of a storm by the time it arrives in FL, though. Could completely merge with the front by then.

that sounds like a very reasonable scenario. the system looks like it's developing right now with deep convection bursting and impressive outflow. a renumber within the next 12 hours seems probable at this point.

[blp]

I'm still thinking about 99.999999% Jerry by tomorrow afternoon. Probably stays a TS. Moves to near Tampico Friday evening, stalls, then drifts south as the front approaches and sends dry air down the coast of MX. Tracks SE into northern BoC then NE-ENE along front toward Florida. May not be much of a storm by the time it arrives in FL, though. Could completely merge with the front by then.

I agree there is nothing to keep this down in the short term and in the long term it will be quite hard for it to maintain its structure with the front screaming across the gulf. The models are just having a hard time with the interaction with the front.