ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9876
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
06z HWRF, 100 mph hurricane into Big Bend area...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9876
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139713
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1773
- Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Where does that storm come from off the east coast on the euro? On the gfs it looks like a low develops on the southern portion of the trough with moisture from 95L but it doesn't look like it's related to 95L.
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9876
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re:
gatorcane wrote:00Z Euro shows the area heading towards Florida at 192 hours but not strong. The front gets it:
I think the run finishes going over Lake Okeechobee and out to sea...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06Z GFDL - does nothing with it
0Z CMC- weak- TX
EURO- weak strung out caught in the trop- FL
06 GFS- strung out multiple lows along the front-
06Z NAVGEM- weak into FL
well the good thing is it doesnt look like its going to turn major on anyone. Well thats what the guidance is saying right now anyway.... I exclude the HWRF since it is jacked on intensity since it was turned on.
0Z CMC- weak- TX
EURO- weak strung out caught in the trop- FL
06 GFS- strung out multiple lows along the front-
06Z NAVGEM- weak into FL
well the good thing is it doesnt look like its going to turn major on anyone. Well thats what the guidance is saying right now anyway.... I exclude the HWRF since it is jacked on intensity since it was turned on.
0 likes
Re:
HURAKAN wrote:since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models
I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.
Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before
Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Didn't yesterday's euro runs show this a more developed storm and hit south LA?
This looks like its shaping up to be gulf invest from august part 2. Think it got up to 70/80% crossing the yucatan and front came down and strung it out.
Rock think I will go on record with 80/20 strung out mess vs organized tropical storm.
This looks like its shaping up to be gulf invest from august part 2. Think it got up to 70/80% crossing the yucatan and front came down and strung it out.
Rock think I will go on record with 80/20 strung out mess vs organized tropical storm.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6617
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Re:
Great post, thanks for putting that together.
blp wrote:HURAKAN wrote:since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models
I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.
Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before
Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9876
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Re:
blp wrote:HURAKAN wrote:since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models
I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.
Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before
Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.
If you include Oct tracks, there are a few that move E or ENE across the GOM...IMO, it seems like an Oct pattern already...Graphic below is Sept/Oct tracks:
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2312
- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9788
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re:
xcool22 wrote:ukmet 12z take to new Orleans
Actually it is the 0z UKMet which takes 95L into southeastern Lousiana, skirting it really, and into the northeastern Gulf Coast. System moving west-southwest to east-northeast. 12z Ukie isn't out yet.
0 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Blown Away wrote:blp wrote:HURAKAN wrote:since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models
I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.
Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before
Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.
If you include Oct tracks, there are a few that move E or ENE across the GOM...IMO, it seems like an Oct pattern already...Graphic below is Sept/Oct tracks:
Agreed Blown Away on October pattern possibly more likely. Not real sure about the map provided but I remember Gabrielle well coming off the tip of the Yucatan and hitting us around the same time as 9/11 from 2001. The last Major to hit the Tampa area was from that very same area. Not saying it will be a major but anything coming from South and West of us always gets my attention.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12Z intensity forecasts have also dropped off....only few make it up to cat 1 now.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
caneman wrote:
Agreed Blown Away on October pattern possibly more likely. Not real sure about the map provided but I remember Gabrielle well coming off the tip of the Yucatan and hitting us around the same time as 9/11 from 2001. The last Major to hit the Tampa area was from that very same area. Not saying it will be a major but anything coming from South and West of us always gets my attention.
The 1921 major hurricane that hit Tampa orginated in the W. Carribean and was from 20-30 OCT. Gabrielle in 2001 formed in the Eastern Gulf just off the West coast of Florida. Yes if you include October then the probabilities increase. I not saying it could not happen since we have seen stranger things before, it's just that it would be a historic first with regards to the climatological record.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 6 guests