ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion
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- Rgv20
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Would not mind upping the totals especially in the Western Valley
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Hurricane Ingrid is forecast to make landfall Monday about 200 miles south of Brownsville. The threat of additional heavy rainfall will exist today and Monday, with still a good chance of rain Tuesday through Thursday. Rain chances will begin to taper off Friday and through the weekend. Heaviest rainfall is expected over the extreme Lower Valley with rainfall totals decreasing north and west. -Campbell-
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Hurricane Ingrid is forecast to make landfall Monday about 200 miles south of Brownsville. The threat of additional heavy rainfall will exist today and Monday, with still a good chance of rain Tuesday through Thursday. Rain chances will begin to taper off Friday and through the weekend. Heaviest rainfall is expected over the extreme Lower Valley with rainfall totals decreasing north and west. -Campbell-
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
Good luck! Those numbers are very encouraging. Though of course you'll need to worry about flooding.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
Clearly blocked to the west and so climbing north very slowly. I'm quite sure based on the satellite loops. And yes there is westerly shear there too which makes it hard to tell how much is steering and how much is shear, but I still think there has to be a track adjustment at 11PM.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
ROCK wrote:Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...
And from WV sat looks like ridge is breaking down over you in Texas. I am very curious what NHC says in discussion at 11 and in track forecast. God knows they always take a more conservative approach, which I totally agree with, but there has to be an adjustment north. (Yeah I know I've said this enough now, lol.)
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Re:
Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.
TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Hurricane_Earl_02_sept_1998_2028Z.jpg
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed hotlinked image
Reason: removed hotlinked image
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Re: Re:
HurricaneBill wrote:Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.
TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).
[ img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Hurricane_Earl_02_sept_1998_2028Z.jpg[/img]
That looks like Andrea from this year lol
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
HurricaneBill wrote:Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.
TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).
[img ]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Hurricane_Earl_02_sept_1998_2028Z.jpg[/img]
Ahhhh my eyes, my eyes!!!!!
In all seriousness though, Ingrid is looking very poor this evening.
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Re: Re:
HurricaneBill wrote:Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.
TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).
Try this, a heavily sheared major hurricane with little or no eyewall
That's Bonnie of 1998 and was a CAT3 at the time according to Best Track
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:ROCK wrote:Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...
And from WV sat looks like ridge is breaking down over you in Texas. I am very curious what NHC says in discussion at 11 and in track forecast. God knows they always take a more conservative approach, which I totally agree with, but there has to be an adjustment north. (Yeah I know I've said this enough now, lol.)
So this would make the landfall further North into Mexico?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
Yeah, supercane, there are literally dozens of examples, some quite recent, that make Ingrid look really good.
Last edited by ozonepete on Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
Nikki wrote:ozonepete wrote:ROCK wrote:Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...
And from WV sat looks like ridge is breaking down over you in Texas. I am very curious what NHC says in discussion at 11 and in track forecast. God knows they always take a more conservative approach, which I totally agree with, but there has to be an adjustment north. (Yeah I know I've said this enough now, lol.)
So this would make the landfall further North into Mexico?
Yes, absolutely. It all depends on when it turns west. That turn is getting overdue. We'll just have to wait for the NHC's explanation discussion at 11PM. They know better than any of us, including that they will say they are not sure what it's doing if they're not. This one is a real forecasting challenge now.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
So this would make the landfall further North into Mexico?[/quote]
Yes, absolutely. It all depends on when it turns west. That turn is getting overdue. We'll just have to wait for the NHC's explanation discussion at 11PM. They know better than any of us, including that they will say they are not sure what it's doing if they're not. This one is a real forecasting challenge now.[/quote]
I can honestly say I am glad I don't have to forecast these storms....I am glad it may move far enough away from Manuel not to affect the same area(s) he is affecting!
Yes, absolutely. It all depends on when it turns west. That turn is getting overdue. We'll just have to wait for the NHC's explanation discussion at 11PM. They know better than any of us, including that they will say they are not sure what it's doing if they're not. This one is a real forecasting challenge now.[/quote]
I can honestly say I am glad I don't have to forecast these storms....I am glad it may move far enough away from Manuel not to affect the same area(s) he is affecting!
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
I finally see some westward shift in the clouds over northern Mexico. So the turn should start soon, but it's going to come later than forecast earlier so the landfall will probably be shifted north of the last advisory.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks to moving about due west now from long range radar.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion
Live ir loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-94&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-94&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10
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