ATL: INGRID - Models
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- gatorcane
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The reason why it is drifting north is because the ridge hasn't built yet over the Southern United States. Now look at 30 hours from now at the 500MB flow and that huge ridge to the north. The hurricane won't go north through that. Not a Texas storm - this is going to Mexico. The NAVGEM is useful to find out where it won't go
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Re: Re:
LaBreeze wrote:crownweather wrote:NAVGEM also landfalls in about 48 hours and loops southward into BOC before coming back north and regenerating into a TS. Makes a 2nd landfall late next week on the Louisiana coast. Gotta love it.
How crazy is that?! That NAVGEM is something else.
well considering the navgem is very similar to the EURO I would not discount the solution.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
I'm also hearing about the possibility of a "ghost" of Ingrid hanging out in the BOC after she goes in to Mexico. Anyone else hearing this?
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
LaBreeze wrote:I'm also hearing about the possibility of a "ghost" of Ingrid hanging out in the BOC after she goes in to Mexico. Anyone else hearing this?
That could be a possibility as I see the ECMWF showing this ghost forming the past several runs. The latest couple of runs of the ECMWF sends that ghost ENE towards Florida. This is being discussed in the Global Model Discussions thread.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
The NAVGEM is useful to find out where it won't go
Pretty good gatorcane
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- Rgv20
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18zGFS came in line with a faster movement of Hurricane Ingrid...making landfall by Monday Morning North of Tampico.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
gatorcane wrote:LaBreeze wrote:I'm also hearing about the possibility of a "ghost" of Ingrid hanging out in the BOC after she goes in to Mexico. Anyone else hearing this?
That could be a possibility as I see the ECMWF showing this ghost forming the past several runs. The latest couple of runs of the ECMWF sends that ghost ENE towards Florida. This is being discussed in the Global Model Discussions thread.
the NAVGEM looks just like the EURO except for final landfall. So you are discounting the EURO also?
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- Rgv20
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The 12zCMC is forecasting some serious flooding for NE Mexico just South of the Border. A huge swath of 10+ inches of rain in the next 5 days.
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- Rgv20
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Spaghetti Models trended a bit north tonight...going to be interesting how much latitude Ingrid gains before making the turn west.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
18Z NAVGEM redevelops Ingrids leftovers into a TS and it heads towards Texas....BAM!! let it be written let it be done!!!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
12Z EURO Ensembles means....pretty NAVGEMish if you ask me...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
yes it could be....the 0Z GFS is more south with landfall but turns her around and back into the BOC where she started at 52hrs.....
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Re:
BigB0882 wrote:This possible loop scenario could be interesting.
Please explain the loop scenario. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
ROCK wrote:18Z NAVGEM redevelops Ingrids leftovers into a TS and it heads towards Texas....BAM!! let it be written let it be done!!!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png
Isn't this "leftover" the talked about "ghost" on Ingrid that is expected to shoot off to the NE toward Florida?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
LaBreeze wrote:ROCK wrote:18Z NAVGEM redevelops Ingrids leftovers into a TS and it heads towards Texas....BAM!! let it be written let it be done!!!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png
Isn't this "leftover" the talked about "ghost" on Ingrid that is expected to shoot off to the NE toward Florida?
yes this is her.....GFS is showing her in the BOC again at 66hrs...I would be to sure about FL just yet...
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... P&hour=066
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models
What do you mean, Rock? Do you think that it may turn and hit Mexico again?
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