ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

Hammy · #861 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:26 pm

Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

#862 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:30 pm

Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

The 986 was with 27 kt of wind, so it is probably 983 or 984.

#863 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:31 pm

Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

Oooh you are really going against the tide Hammy.

I hope you didn't put another $5 on this, lol. This will easily make cat 2 as Manuel goes inland and fizzles. The rumors of Ingrid's death by shear have been going on for 2 days now but have been greatly exaggerated so far.

Hammy · #864 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:33 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

Oooh you are really going against the tide Hammy. I hope you didn't put another $5 on this, lol. This will easily make cat 2 as Manuel goes inland and fizzles. The rumors of Ingrid's death by shear have been going on for 2 days now but have been greatly exaggerated so far.

Nah I've only got $1 going this time :wink:

MaineWeatherNut · #865 Postby **MaineWeatherNut** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:34 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

Oooh you are really going against the tide Hammy. I hope you didn't put another $5 on this, lol. This will easily make cat 2 as Manuel goes inland and fizzles. The rumors of Ingrid's death by shear have been going on for 2 days now but have been greatly exaggerated so far.

lol Yeah. She wouldn't be putting up a nice area of -80c cloud tops if they were being blown off by shear.

#866 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:34 pm

Does anyone has information about when was the last time that two Hurricanes made landfall on opposite sides of Mexico almost the same time?

#867 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:37 pm

That may be, but it's heading into nearly 30 kts of shear, and I think the latest GFS run has finally realized how hostile conditions are getting. I think it will burst here a few more hours and then get pretty well ripped to shreads.

We shall see.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#868 Postby **Buck** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:37 pm

Ingrid's really dared to be different from the other, lesser Bay of Campeche storms this year. At least she is still pretty small in size.

Annie Oakley · #869 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:40 pm

Texas loves The National Hurricane Center.

#870 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:41 pm

Outflow from intensifying TS Manuel is the culprit.

#871 Postby **Buck** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:42 pm

Here is a population density map of Mexico for reference.

#872 Postby **lester** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:51 pm

Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

still probably ~983-ish with the 27 kt wind found

#873 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:18 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:Texas loves The National Hurricane Center.

So does Brooklyn! (And New York too, lol.)

#874 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:23 pm

tolakram wrote:That may be, but it's heading into nearly 30 kts of shear, and I think the latest GFS run has finally realized how hostile conditions are getting. I think it will burst here a few more hours and then get pretty well ripped to shreads.

We shall see.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It won't ever get into that high shear zone Mark. That shear is to the northeast of it and it will soon turn west into a lower shear area. I think most important is that most of the models have overestimated the shear so far for this system - surprise, surprise. It's still the most difficult atmospheric factor for the models as well as the forecasters and I always take the shear forecasts (and the current analysis) with a BIG grain of salt. Just not enough data over the water.

#875 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:Does anyone has information about when was the last time that two Hurricanes made landfall on opposite sides of Mexico almost the same time?

I don't, but Manuel is not a hurricane and not forecast to make it to one, I believe.

#876 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:27 pm

MaineWeatherNut wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

Oooh you are really going against the tide Hammy. I hope you didn't put another $5 on this, lol. This will easily make cat 2 as Manuel goes inland and fizzles. The rumors of Ingrid's death by shear have been going on for 2 days now but have been greatly exaggerated so far.

lol Yeah. She wouldn't be putting up a nice area of -80c cloud tops if they were being blown off by shear.

Well I've seen Hurricanes put up -80C cloud tops that soon got blown off by shear, but that sure isn't happening right now. :wink:

There is a huge blowup of those tops right over the center and they don't seem to be getting blown off at all. Once again, shear forecasts and analysis are very faulty over water.

TheStormExpert · #877 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:32 pm

This has to be one of the ugliest looking hurricanes I have ever seen! :lol:

Annie Oakley · #878 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:33 pm

Texas loves OZ in Brooklyn.

#879 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:33 pm

Hammy wrote:Pressure is up to 986 mb based on last VDM, and looks like its being hit with pretty strong shear at the moment. I'm not seeing this getting any stronger and in fact will probably level off if not steadily weaken from here until landfall.

shear is likely to decrease quite a bit after 24 hours. This should strike as a cane

#880 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:33 pm

it's a cat 1... not a 5. It isn't going to look textbook

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