ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Time_Zone]

70 mph TS at 11am

From Discussion:

CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME.

Wow shear ? hmm interesting.

[jinftl]

perhaps from Manuel?

70 mph TS at 11am

From Discussion:

CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME.

Wow shear ? hmm interesting.

[CrazyC83]

Shear has been pretty high yet Ingrid has still strengthened...so I dunno. We shall see.

[Time_Zone]

perhaps from Manuel?

70 mph TS at 11am

From Discussion:

CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME.

Wow shear ? hmm interesting.

Not sure, looks like Manuel isn't really having any negative affects on Ingrid right now. I'll take the NHC's word on it, but that sounds very surprising to me.

[Bailey1777]

morning everyone.....when will next recon be on scene?

[brunota2003]

I respect your opinion but with all due respect I don't really consider a 25KT increase in 24 or so hours to be "slow and steady development" considering the threshold for RI is 30 KTS in 24.

The 30 KT is NOT the classical definition. It is a proxy used in operations since ops focuses on wind and not pressure

RI is something very rare... and EI is even rarer

I just looked at a couple AMS papers that used wind. One defined it as 30 knots in a day is Rapid Intensification, and 40 knots is "Very Rapid Intensification". While I agree there is no "standard" definition, I disagree with the use of pressure. If the pressure rapidly drops from 1000 mb to 980 mb, but the winds don't catch up before landfall, then wind won't be so bad for those on the ground. In reverse, if winds go from 65 knots to 100 knots, the degree of damage is significantly more! So do you go with pressure, which in the end has almost zero affect on someone's boat or house (excluding pressure driven winds by a nearby cold front or high pressure, which is NOT directly related to the TC itself), or do you use wind, which is what really destroys property and kills people?

I'm not arguing the reasoning behind why they use pressure, it can be "cleaner", but how many times have we seen a rapid drop in pressure and it takes 4 to 6 hours for the winds to catch up? As someone who has lived in a hurricane zone, I'd be much more worried about that 30 knot, or even 25 knot, jump in wind speed, than a 10 mb pressure fall.

[Alyono]

I respect your opinion but with all due respect I don't really consider a 25KT increase in 24 or so hours to be "slow and steady development" considering the threshold for RI is 30 KTS in 24.

The 30 KT is NOT the classical definition. It is a proxy used in operations since ops focuses on wind and not pressure

RI is something very rare... and EI is even rarer

I just looked at a couple AMS papers that used wind. One defined it as 30 knots in a day is Rapid Intensification, and 40 knots is "Very Rapid Intensification". While I agree there is no "standard" definition, I disagree with the use of pressure. If the pressure rapidly drops from 1000 mb to 980 mb, but the winds don't catch up before landfall, then wind won't be so bad for those on the ground. In reverse, if winds go from 65 knots to 100 knots, the degree of damage is significantly more! So do you go with pressure, which in the end has almost zero affect on someone's boat or house (excluding pressure driven winds by a nearby cold front or high pressure, which is NOT directly related to the TC itself), or do you use wind, which is what really destroys property and kills people?

I'm not arguing the reasoning behind why they use pressure, it can be "cleaner", but how many times have we seen a rapid drop in pressure and it takes 4 to 6 hours for the winds to catch up? As someone who has lived in a hurricane zone, I'd be much more worried about that 30 knot, or even 25 knot, jump in wind speed, than a 10 mb pressure fall.

when talking about a low pressure system, intensity is defined as pressure. The wind can be due to several other factors (such as pressure gradient and convective activity). Thus, for using RI, IMO, the pressure definition is the one to use

[Alyono]

As for the shear, SHIPS already has 19 KT over it now. GFS seems to be overdoing the impacts of Manuel. Manuel is not the big hurricane the models have been showing and it is moving farther away from Ingrid

[ROCK]

have to agree with Alyono on this one. 2007 Humberto come to mind.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Notice how Manuel is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning while the landfall for Ingrid has been pushed back significantly to Tuesday morning. It does not make logical sense for Ingrid to be sheared after tomorrow morning, if its even going to be, since Manuel will be inland by then.

This isn't going to be a 70kt peak IMO.

[cycloneye]

morning everyone.....when will next recon be on scene?

Next NOAA plane:

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 43--
A. 14/2100Z
B. NOAA3 0910A INGRID
C. 14/1800Z
D. 20.9N 95.8W
E. 14/2030Z TO 14/2330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Next Air Force plane:

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 70--
A. 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1010A INGRID
C. 14/2100Z
D. 21.3N 96.0W
E. 14/2300Z TO 15/0300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

The first one should be getting there around 4 PM CDT and the second one around 7 PM CDT.

[Bailey1777]

is that an attempt at an eye at 21.0N 94.5W?

[Bailey1777]

thanks cycloneeye.

[cycloneye]

Tampico cam.

[HurricaneDREW92]

is that an attempt at an eye at 21.0N 94.5W?

Looks like it

[SouthDadeFish]

In regards to the RI discussion, I would say the standard definition for RI is a maximum sustained wind speed increase of 30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period. A frequently referenced paper that established this threshold was the Kaplan and DeMaria paper (2003):

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434%282003%29018%3C1093:LCORIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

They found a 30 knot increase to correlate approximately to the 95th percentile of over-water 24 hour TC intensity change in the Atlantic. Yes there are other definitions, but the NHC likes this one from what I've gathered.

Also, about the shear:

I just looked at the 06Z GFS 200mb wind forecast and I really can't tell where this discussed shear is... The upper-level environment looks favorable for strengthening actually with a beautiful outflow channel developing NE of where Ingrid would be in about 24 hours. An upper-level anticyclone is entrenched over the western Gulf for the next 72 hours. As long as upwelling of colder waters beneath Ingrid isn't an issue (due to the slow forward speed), strengthening would be expected according to the GFS upper-air forecast. Now, this is just one model and much can change, but I too am very skeptical of the 70 knot forecast.

Note: Just checked the fresh 12Z and conditions again look very favorable for intensification, minus the possibility of upwelling.

[SouthDadeFish]

Fresh microwave pass shows what may be a partial eyewall forming to the NE of the center:

[Macrocane]

For me defining inensity in terms of pressure is useless, at least to warn people, pressure doesn't make any damage but winds do, if that's the official definition of intenisty it must been changed IMO, Isidore was not stronger than Lili in 2003 yet it had a lowest pressure .

Back on topic, Ingird is deepening at a fast pace even if it's not rapid, I don't see to much shear, juts land interaction.

[Alyono]

well... a storm with a lower pressure and a lower peak wind may in fact be the more destructive storm.

The reason... the lower pressure/wind storm would be larger and you would have strong winds over a large area. This can produce very large tidal surges as evidenced by Isaac and Sandy

[crownweather]

The NAVGEM model's forecast of a very large tropical cyclone in the northern Gulf that Rock posted a couple of days ago is one that is making me take pause given how well organized Ingrid looks. I am extremely skeptical of that sort of a track, but given the favorable conditions ahead of Ingrid (contrary to what NHC's discussion pointed towards), wouldn't a larger storm in overall size plus the intensity to back it up take longer to make that turn towards the west. I always thought so.