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ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion
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Rgv20
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WPC forecasting some beneficial heavy rains for Deep South Texas (3-7 inches) in the next 5 days....Some 7-10 inches just south of the border!
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
FWIW...QPF 7 day a little more generous with moisture for coastal Texas!
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/29/ov0v.png/
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/29/ov0v.png/
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Rgv20
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Honestly I don't remember the last time we had a Flash Flood Watch! 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WILL TAKE THE TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HIGHLIGHT HAZARDS AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND...
TROPICAL STORM INGRID CONTINUES REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE FOR THE STORM TO APPROACH THE MOST SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS STATE IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPICO.
REITERATING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER (IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT
THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR AT THIS TIME RANGE/72 HOURS/ IS ABOUT
100 NM...AND AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS ARE AROUND 15KTS. SO EXPECT
FURTHER COURSE CORRECTIONS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THIS SYSTEM).
THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE REMAINS AROUND
20 PERCENT...IN IMMEDIATELY COASTAL CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY AND
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS YOU MOVE INLAND. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST
ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES. THE GRADIENT FROM INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL INCREASE OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING LONGER...LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WEST OF THE RGV TO DRIFT AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM. DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE IN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A HIGHER
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN THE DEVELOP OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF AND INLAND AREAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEST A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND IN FLUX OF RICH TROPICAL
AIR WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN. LATEST THINKING ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCES AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CLOSER TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. THIS REMAINS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC QPF
GUIDANCE. BY SUNDAY 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WILL BE ABOUT 3
INCHES PER HOUR SO WE ARE NOT EXPLICITLY FORECASTING A FLASH FLOOD
SCENARIO BUT THE POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND IF THINGS COME TOGETHER MORE SIGNIFICANT INLAND/FLASH
FLOODING. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WILL TAKE THE TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HIGHLIGHT HAZARDS AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND...
TROPICAL STORM INGRID CONTINUES REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE FOR THE STORM TO APPROACH THE MOST SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS STATE IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPICO.
REITERATING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER (IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT
THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR AT THIS TIME RANGE/72 HOURS/ IS ABOUT
100 NM...AND AVERAGE INTENSITY ERRORS ARE AROUND 15KTS. SO EXPECT
FURTHER COURSE CORRECTIONS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THIS SYSTEM).
THE PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE REMAINS AROUND
20 PERCENT...IN IMMEDIATELY COASTAL CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY AND
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AS YOU MOVE INLAND. RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST
ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES. THE GRADIENT FROM INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL INCREASE OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS AND KEEP GUSTY WINDS BLOWING LONGER...LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WEST OF THE RGV TO DRIFT AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG TERM. DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE IN AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A HIGHER
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN THE DEVELOP OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF AND INLAND AREAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEST A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND IN FLUX OF RICH TROPICAL
AIR WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN. LATEST THINKING ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRODUCES AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CLOSER TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
RANCHLANDS. THIS REMAINS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH WPC QPF
GUIDANCE. BY SUNDAY 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WILL BE ABOUT 3
INCHES PER HOUR SO WE ARE NOT EXPLICITLY FORECASTING A FLASH FLOOD
SCENARIO BUT THE POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND IF THINGS COME TOGETHER MORE SIGNIFICANT INLAND/FLASH
FLOODING. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
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HurricaneDREW92
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY
-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
My question about the shear is answered at 4 PM CDT discussion.
THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS
THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Portastorm wrote:(sigh) ... I don't know ... I may be seeing things but it does seem to me like Ingrid is starting to move northwest, finally. Bailey1777 may be on to something. Or we're both nuts!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rgb-short.html
Yeah....maybe a smudge in that last frame
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lrak
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
From CC TX
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...VERY WET AND STORMY
FORECAST FOR THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
OF INGRID WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NW GULF AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH PWATS IN 2.25-2.4"RANGE NOSING INTO THE MID TX COAST.
THIS VERY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND LEAVES
A WEAK STEERING FLOW OVER TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN-TUE TIME PERIOD WITH CHANCE
POPS NORTH OF THAT AREA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY UPDATED WPC QPF
OUTLOOK...DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE QPF
FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE 2-4" RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 5-7" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNDAY. THESE RAINS WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE A DENT IN THE
DROUGHT SITUATION BUT MAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON RESERVOIR LEVELS. STAY TUNED!
oh and surf is up
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...VERY WET AND STORMY
FORECAST FOR THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
OF INGRID WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NW GULF AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH PWATS IN 2.25-2.4"RANGE NOSING INTO THE MID TX COAST.
THIS VERY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND LEAVES
A WEAK STEERING FLOW OVER TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN-TUE TIME PERIOD WITH CHANCE
POPS NORTH OF THAT AREA. BASED ON THE RECENTLY UPDATED WPC QPF
OUTLOOK...DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE QPF
FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE 2-4" RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 5-7" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNDAY. THESE RAINS WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE A DENT IN THE
DROUGHT SITUATION BUT MAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON RESERVOIR LEVELS. STAY TUNED!
oh and surf is up
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AKA karl
Also
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My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurriGuy wrote:Portastorm wrote:(sigh) ... I don't know ... I may be seeing things but it does seem to me like Ingrid is starting to move northwest, finally. Bailey1777 may be on to something. Or we're both nuts!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rgb-short.html
Yeah....maybe a smudge in that last frame
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/
radar shows a hint of northwest movement as well. And I don't yet want to bring out the e-word yet, but it certainly seems to be getting better organized and wrapping a stronger band around on the western side.
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Bailey1777
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
nice pressure drop found by the recon
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 989.7 mb
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 989.7 mb
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Very cold cloud tops right now.
Looks to be intensifying
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re:
Time_Zone wrote:Huge pressure drop wow.
That can't be legit
It is. Dropsonde splashed with 993mb with 14kt surface winds.
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Re: Re:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Time_Zone wrote:Huge pressure drop wow.
That can't be legit
It is. Dropsonde splashed with 993mb with 14kt surface winds.
Wow that's kind of scary.
I hope for Mexico's sake this thing moves in asap.
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Rgv20
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Are air space restrictions preventing investigation of the SW quadrant?
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