ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Early this afternoon it appears that Ingrid wants to make a stop in Veracruz, Mexico. If she doesn't do a right turn shortly ... she'll be making landfall there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-vis-long.html

[Rgv20]

Indeed Ingrid is very close...The 1PM advisory just came in and the NHC has it Nearly Stationary and at 95.4W, a slow drift to the N should begin soon.

[vbhoutex]

Portastorm, I think what you are seeing is the convection moving back over the VERY SLOW MOVING TO STATIONARY center as the shear is relaxing over Ingrid. I am still going with a more Northerly landfall based on both the models and the expected strengthening of Ingrid. IOW stronger TC tend to track further N. Am I thinking it will landfall in TX? Not at this time. With the very weak steering currents in that area, I am tending to think we may end up with a coastal hugger for a while before actual landfall occurs. To me one of the big questions with Ingrid is how fast, if she does, will she strengthen?(upwelling may well come into play here) That and the possible, I repeat possible, eroding of the Western edge of the ridge are the biggest flies in the ointment of forecasting Ingrid. Glad that is not my job!!

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Indeed Ingrid is very close...The 1PM advisory just came in and the NHC has it Nearly Stationary and at 95.4W, a slow drift to the N should begin soon.

Appears to be moving WSW if anything, would have to almost move northeast to keep with NHC track.

[Time_Zone]

:uarrow: Indeed Ingrid is very close...The 1PM advisory just came in and the NHC has it Nearly Stationary and at 95.4W, a slow drift to the N should begin soon.

Appears to be moving WSW if anything, would have to almost move northeast to keep with NHC track.

Drifting WSW? As far as I can tell it's not moving at all. I sure don't see anything close to a WSW movement.

Seems like you just want this thing to crash into land judging by all of your recent posts. I'd be surprised if it happens.

[wxman57]

It's just wobbling around. Look for a northerly motion to begin tonight. Still thinking hurricane at landfall, a bit north of Tampico.

[vbhoutex]

And now that I have looked at both the radar and the visible sat loops again, I must revise my thoughts a little bit. Starting to think that I am correct about the convection and thinking that indeed there is a SSLLOOWW WSW or SW drift which could be the beginning of a loop. Ingrid is going to be a tough one to forecast imo, but the longer she plays around down there she is less likely to strengthen even with good conditions because upwelling will quickly come into play.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 10, 2013091318, , BEST, 0, 194N, 953W, 40, 999, TS

[Bailey1777]

man.....you can hear the echo in here. Wxman57 even going in,in northern mex. couldnt the precip. get stretched far east of the center and give much of coastal texas some rain?

[wxman57]

man.....you can hear the echo in here. Wxman57 even going in,in northern mex. couldnt the precip. get stretched far east of the center and give much of coastal texas some rain?

Maybe a little for the lower valley (very lower). Nothing for mid to upper coast. Ridge dominates.

[South Texas Storms]

man.....you can hear the echo in here. Wxman57 even going in,in northern mex. couldnt the precip. get stretched far east of the center and give much of coastal texas some rain?

Maybe a little for the lower valley (very lower). Nothing for mid to upper coast. Ridge dominates.

You don't think the 0z and 6z GFS runs will verify wxman? Those runs were great as they gave me and Porta at least an inch of rain. 12z is awful though...

[Bailey1777]

that sucks but thanks for the reality check......

[wxman57]

that sucks but thanks for the reality check......

12Z Euro and 12Z GFS now in good agreement on landfall a little north of Tampico. Euro shifted about 70 miles farther south since 00z.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop:



My Unofficial Track:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Bailey1777]

looks to be lifting a little north now....come on everyone even without a direct hit we still have a ts to talk about.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Latest Saved Loop:

http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/7135/r31.gif

My Unofficial Track:

http://img541.imageshack.us/img541/5412/304q.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

You started your center too far east. That's not where it's at.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Lets see what RECON finds

[Alyono]

shear is increasing quite a bit now. I think the intensification we saw earlier today is over for the time being. Should begin to intensify again tomorrow

[cycloneye]

shear is increasing quite a bit now. I think the intensification we saw earlier today is over for the time being. Should begin to intensify again tomorrow

The shear is from outflow of TD 13-E/Manuel?

[Portastorm]

(sigh) ... I don't know ... I may be seeing things but it does seem to me like Ingrid is starting to move northwest, finally. Bailey1777 may be on to something. Or we're both nuts!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rgb-short.html