Bailey1777 wrote:hey wxman 57 sure looks like this system may not gain any latitude and continue west into mexico on southern side of cone.......thoughts?
Probably not.
ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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bbadon
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not sure whether this should go here or model thread, but given the location this morning, what happens if the current circulation ends up on land today? Would that circulation weaken allowing a center relocation further offshore. If I remember some of the models were toying with that type of scenario yesterday.
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
bbadon wrote:Not sure whether this should go here or model thread, but given the location this morning, what happens if the current circulation ends up on land today? Would that circulation weaken allowing a center relocation further offshore. If I remember some of the models were toying with that type of scenario yesterday.
You're in the right thread. No worries.
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
12Z GFS is a bit farther north of Tampico. Possibly far enough north to give south TX a little rain.
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS is a bit farther north of Tampico. Possibly far enough north to give south TX a little rain.
I found the first 60 hours of the 12z GFS op run track to be a bit sketchy. Due north or even north-northeast? Really?!
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS is a bit farther north of Tampico. Possibly far enough north to give south TX a little rain.
Assuming it takes a track that far north (as indicated by the GFS) Any chance this could get close to becoming a hurricane, or is that looking unlikely at this point?
Answers welcome from anyone
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Portastorm wrote:wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS is a bit farther north of Tampico. Possibly far enough north to give south TX a little rain.
I found the first 60 hours of the 12z GFS op run track to be a bit sketchy. Due north or even north-northeast? Really?!
Such a track is possible. It's really just wobbling around now. The upper low that was over south TX has moved SW to northern Mexico.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
25 frame visible, only a single bad frame. Speed it up for full effect. 
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Slow moving storms are hard to forecast on where they will go. I think Ingrid could go further north and even closer to Texas.
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MGC
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shear has really looked to has picked up a good bit. ULL and outflow from new TD in Pacific has worked against Ingrid. Another dud tropical cyclone?.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ptarmigan wrote:Slow moving storms are hard to forecast on where they will go. I think Ingrid could go further north and even closer to Texas.
Depends on the ridge and how strong it is...NAM weaker than GFS but that's not saying a lot
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ROCK wrote:
Depends on the ridge and how strong it is...NAM weaker than GFS but that's not saying a lot
The ridge makes it really difficult to forecast.
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Question: What does this dropping south do for Ingrid? I it going to influence the track at all?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MGC wrote:Shear has really looked to has picked up a good bit. ULL and outflow from new TD in Pacific has worked against Ingrid. Another dud tropical cyclone?.....MGC
looks the opposite to me. The UL is moving to the west and the winds are starting to switch from SW to southerly. This is increasing upper divergence over the system
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Rgv20
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Joe Bastardi in his blog still predicts Ingrid to make landfall in La Pesca, Mexico (Midway between Tampico and Brownsville) as a 95 kt storm.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MGC wrote:Shear has really looked to has picked up a good bit. ULL and outflow from new TD in Pacific has worked against Ingrid. Another dud tropical cyclone?.....MGC
Hmmm? Looks like the shear issue is just about gone.
What gives you such an impression?
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