ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Portastorm]

I wonder if part of that "erratic motion" NHC speaks of in its TD10 discussions includes the center of the system moving back over land?

Looks like the Pacific system (90E) is making its presence felt down there.

[wxman57]

The westward location of the center this morning may mean a track shift farther southward toward Tampico, perhaps even south of there. It certainly decreases the risk (or benefit) to the lower TX coast.

[ninel conde]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/ingrid13/Ingrid_12-14Sep13_alva.gif
If that's the center where I think it is this looks like its further west than thought, moving WSW at a decent clip could be onshore within 24 hours.

The latest recon center fix is 19°19'N 95°06'W (19.3167N 95.1W) which is further than 30 miles
...and I might add that Bastardi is still calling for Cat2 at La Pesca

he said that yesterday. right now that seems unlikely based on recent data.

[wxman57]

12Z model consensus has shifted south to Tampico or a little south of Tampico with an ETA of Sunday before sunrise.

[Portastorm]

12Z model consensus has shifted south to Tampico or a little south of Tampico with an ETA of Sunday before sunrise.

That, sir, is all kinds of bad news ... for many reasons.

[Stormcenter]

We may still get some moisture from the remains of TD #10 next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013


&&

.LONG TERM...

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED MOVING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING AND LEAVING THE GULF
COAST IN A SOMEWHAT OF A ZONAL PATTERN WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE TO
TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH LOOKS TO BE REACHING INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE GULF WILL BE OPEN. HAVE KEPT
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY CHANCE POPS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADED WNW
TO NW INTO MEXICO. LOCAL IMPACTS WILL MEARLY BE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Alyono]

new sfmr winds may indicate storm These could be plausable

[Alyono]

may have conclusive proof of a TS now

[Time_Zone]

Looking much better today.

Should be a TS or very close

[davidiowx]

AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, M,

[CrazyC83]

Looking at all the data, I would have put the intensity at 45 kt with the SFMR readings.

[Bailey1777]

hey wxman 57 sure looks like this system may not gain any latitude and continue west into mexico on southern side of cone.......thoughts?

[tolakram]

This live loop is working fairly well this morning, just 2 dropped frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

I see what I think is the LLC very close to the coast.

[tolakram]

Cross post from the recon thread.

[Bailey1777]

man that is close to the coast.....if she doesnt turn north immediately or go stationary shes going inland fairly soon.

[Time_Zone]

Sure looks like she wants to commit suicide early

[JGrin87]

The westward location of the center this morning may mean a track shift farther southward toward Tampico, perhaps even south of there. It certainly decreases the risk (or benefit) to the lower TX coast.

Lol... like this ever had a chance of relieving us Texans...

Tropical Cyclones know better than to "mess with Texas." Tropical Cyclones only go to Texas to die.

[Bailey1777]

does anyone have the latest direction of movement and speed of movement?

[baytownwx]

Just wondering.... wasn't a few models showing this doing a little loop down there before moving north? Could this be what's happening?

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al102013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309131351
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INGRID, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2013, TS, O, 2013091012, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102013