ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

The shear is already showing up, over the last several hours the stronger storms that had formed were blown off to the east and weakened, and a dry slot appears to be opening up immediately to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rbtop-long.html

I don't think so Hammy. And I know you are a good observer and know what you are talking about. But look again at those loops. The tops of those thunderstorm were not blown off to the east; they really look like they simply deflated due to DMIN.

I can see what you're talking about better on the water vapor after checking it, as the western point of the convection hasn't really gone east much, and also that the northern extent of the cirrus canopy has extended northward by a decent amount in the last few hours.

That's what I see.

[cycloneye]

Interesting excerpt from discussion.

THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA...
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS
STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LARGER THAN USUAL.

[Annie Oakley]

RGV....I wish you would send this to the weather editor of the Brownsville Herald................that's an awesome summary report and very informative.

[ozonepete]

Slowly organizing. Convection already starting to come back and don't see any significant shearing right now (some slight shear of MLC off to the NE of the LLC but not very much). DMAX early this coming morning could be impressive. Won't be surprised if there's a really big blow-up of thunderstorms right over the center.

[HurriGuy]

stationary right now

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Slowly organizing. Convection already starting to come back and don't see any significant shearing right now (some slight shear of MLC off to the NE of the LLC but not very much). DMAX early this coming morning could be impressive. Won't be surprised if there's a really big blow-up of thunderstorms right over the center.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-09-130315_zps8461bb2d.jpg

Nice banding features developing there.

[RL3AO]

Looks better than Humberto did after advisory #2. Nice banding features combined with the LLC right near the center of convection. Could be an interesting few days to watch.

[Hammy]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/ingrid13/Ingrid_12-14Sep13_alva.gif
If that's the center where I think it is this looks like its further west than thought, moving WSW at a decent clip could be onshore within 24 hours.

[GCANE]

Right on queue, DMAX flare starting up right over the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL102013&starting_image=2013AL10_4KMSRBDC_201309130432.jpg

20 mins ago, rain rate was moderate. Watching to see if this develops into a hot tower.

[GCANE]

Latest core temp sat estimate, 6 hrs ago, was at 3C with a 1C boundary-layer inversion.

Obviously, the inversion was inhibiting convection at the time.

With the cooler upper troposphere temps now occurring at DMAX, enhancing parcel lift and the fact that a convective flare is underway, it is likely the inversion is broken.

The 3C core temp could cause this to ramp quickly.

[GCANE]

200mb vorticity has improved dramatically over this in the last 24 hrs and especially the last 3.

This is allowing the vorticity column to expand vertically and stack better.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.GIF

[Hammy]

after seeing the latest Euro run, I can't help but think Bret in 1999 which was in similar location/setup the morning after forming

Just going to throw this out there, a bit of food concerning the track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/dis/NAL0399.003.html

[RL3AO]

Some CDG (-80C) pixels on IR.

[Time_Zone]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/ingrid13/Ingrid_12-14Sep13_alva.gif
If that's the center where I think it is this looks like its further west than thought, moving WSW at a decent clip could be onshore within 24 hours.

Wouldn't count on it.

[Alyono]

will probably see little change in intensity today. SHIPS has shear increasing to nearly 25 KT

No outflow west of the system. What we have is a divergent, but sheared upper wind pattern, NO anti-cyclone

[ninel conde]

i have often noticed these extreme south BOC lows move onshore sooner than expected.

[Alyono]

center is only 30 miles from the coast of Mexico

any deviation to the west or the south could result in a landfall at any time

[ScottNAtlanta]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/ingrid13/Ingrid_12-14Sep13_alva.gif
If that's the center where I think it is this looks like its further west than thought, moving WSW at a decent clip could be onshore within 24 hours.

The latest recon center fix is 19°19'N 95°06'W (19.3167N 95.1W) which is further than 30 miles
...and I might add that Bastardi is still calling for Cat2 at La Pesca

[Alyono]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/ingrid13/Ingrid_12-14Sep13_alva.gif
If that's the center where I think it is this looks like its further west than thought, moving WSW at a decent clip could be onshore within 24 hours.

The latest recon center fix is 19°19'N 95°06'W (19.3167N 95.1W) which is further than 30 miles
...and I might add that Bastardi is still calling for Cat2 at La Pesca

ok... its 35 miles north of the coast of Mexico

[ScottNAtlanta]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/ingrid13/Ingrid_12-14Sep13_alva.gif
If that's the center where I think it is this looks like its further west than thought, moving WSW at a decent clip could be onshore within 24 hours.

The latest recon center fix is 19°19'N 95°06'W (19.3167N 95.1W) which is further than 30 miles
...and I might add that Bastardi is still calling for Cat2 at La Pesca

ok... its 35 miles north of the coast of Mexico

I'm looking at the recon data on Google Earth, and the coordinates transmitted are not the same as where its plotting. Its like WAY off. It doesn't even look like they have flown thru where they have the vortex located
(just saw your post at recon discussion...those are some hefty comm problems...posted there)