ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[jeff]

If in fact it gets sheared...from the upper level TUTT dropping SSW out of TX over the next 24hours then that does raise a potential possibility of center re-locations to the NE/E and a more stair stepping movement pattern likely to the right of the current guidance. But it would have to be sheared enough to expose the center and the broad center would need to consolidate some first. We have seen that many times in the Gulf before, but not often for a system this deep in the BOC

[Nikki]

If in fact it gets sheared...from the upper level TUTT dropping SSW out of TX over the next 24hours then that does raise a potential possibility of center re-locations to the NE/E and a more stair stepping movement pattern likely to the right of the current guidance. But it would have to be sheared enough to expose the center and the broad center would need to consolidate some first. We have seen that many times in the Gulf before, but not often for a system this deep in the BOC

Thank you for this insight! This is very interesting, because wouldn't this mean it would come inland more North and maybe give South Texas some beneficial rain fall? (I am a total novice here)

[Sanibel]

You have to admit it isn't looking good.

[ROCK]

agree...also models do not at least in my years of study forsee center relos...

[jeff]

If in fact it gets sheared...from the upper level TUTT dropping SSW out of TX over the next 24hours then that does raise a potential possibility of center re-locations to the NE/E and a more stair stepping movement pattern likely to the right of the current guidance. But it would have to be sheared enough to expose the center and the broad center would need to consolidate some first. We have seen that many times in the Gulf before, but not often for a system this deep in the BOC

Thank you for this insight! This is very interesting, because wouldn't this mean it would come inland more North and maybe give South Texas some beneficial rain fall? (I am a total novice here)

It is possible...S TX is within the 5 day error cone so even a direct impact is possible although not likely at the moment. Remember that the error cone does not indicate potential impacts. There will likely be some banding into S TX and maybe even the coastal bend. I do think S TX will get some good rains out of this...big question is how much falls on the MX side of the Rio Grande and comes pouring out of the mountains into the river with little to no warning until it reaches the river. Lots has been done since the great flooding from Alex in 2010.

[Nikki]

If in fact it gets sheared...from the upper level TUTT dropping SSW out of TX over the next 24hours then that does raise a potential possibility of center re-locations to the NE/E and a more stair stepping movement pattern likely to the right of the current guidance. But it would have to be sheared enough to expose the center and the broad center would need to consolidate some first. We have seen that many times in the Gulf before, but not often for a system this deep in the BOC

Thank you for this insight! This is very interesting, because wouldn't this mean it would come inland more North and maybe give South Texas some beneficial rain fall? (I am a total novice here)

It is possible...S TX is within the 5 day error cone so even a direct impact is possible although not likely at the moment. Remember that the error cone does not indicate potential impacts. There will likely be some banding into S TX and maybe even the coastal bend. I do think S TX will get some good rains out of this...big question is how much falls on the MX side of the Rio Grande and comes pouring out of the mountains into the river with little to no warning until it reaches the river. Lots has been done since the great flooding from Alex in 2010.

I hope enough has been done so that everyone is better protected, I remember Alex all too well. Again, thank you for your insight and explanation!!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why did everybody become so pessimistic with this all of a sudden? Haven't we learned not to jump the gun?

I don't see any signs of shear being an issue for much longer. The upper-level low providing the less than ideal upper-air conditions is backing southwest and an analysis of the upper-level winds already indicates upper-level ridging building overhead. The GFS keeps a well-defined anticyclone with the system up to landfall.

The 0z SHIPS now brings 10L to Cat 1 intensity prior to landfall in ~96 hours.

[hurricaneCW]

Why did everybody become so pessimistic with this all of a sudden? Haven't we learned not to jump the gun?

I don't see any signs of shear being an issue for much longer. The upper-level low providing the less than ideal upper-air conditions is backing southwest and an analysis of the upper-level winds already indicates upper-level ridging building overhead. The GFS keeps a well-defined anticyclone with the system up to landfall.

The 0z SHIPS now brings 10L to Cat 1 intensity prior to landfall in ~96 hours.

Agree. I'm willing to bet it blows up around D-MAX and really rapidly organizes.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why did everybody become so pessimistic with this all of a sudden? Haven't we learned not to jump the gun?

I don't see any signs of shear being an issue for much longer. The upper-level low providing the less than ideal upper-air conditions is backing southwest and an analysis of the upper-level winds already indicates upper-level ridging building overhead. The GFS keeps a well-defined anticyclone with the system up to landfall.

The 0z SHIPS now brings 10L to Cat 1 intensity prior to landfall in ~96 hours.

Agree. I'm willing to bet it blows up around D-MAX and really rapidly organizes.

I don't think it's going to rapidly organize quite so soon, it needs to build an inner core -- this takes time with broad lows. I do think that DMAX should be very beneficial though...should push it to minimal tropical storm status at least.

[Alyono]

SHIPS has the shear increasing to 21 KT tomorrow evening. However, it does decrease after that

Intensification should really begin in earnest on Saturday

[ozonepete]

You have to admit it isn't looking good.

For a Cat 1 or Tropical Storm it's not looking good! I don't understand why you would say it doesn't look good for a tropical depression. Think back on some of the TDs that have gotten designated. It's got really good overall circular symmetry and a very apparent low and mid level circulation with quite decent convection for DMIN and very good upper outflow on the northern and eastern sides already. Looks quite good to me.

[hurricaneCW]

Why did everybody become so pessimistic with this all of a sudden? Haven't we learned not to jump the gun?

I don't see any signs of shear being an issue for much longer. The upper-level low providing the less than ideal upper-air conditions is backing southwest and an analysis of the upper-level winds already indicates upper-level ridging building overhead. The GFS keeps a well-defined anticyclone with the system up to landfall.

The 0z SHIPS now brings 10L to Cat 1 intensity prior to landfall in ~96 hours.

Agree. I'm willing to bet it blows up around D-MAX and really rapidly organizes.

I don't think it's going to rapidly organize quite so soon, it needs to build an inner core -- this takes time with broad lows. I do think that DMAX should be very beneficial though...should push it to minimal tropical storm status at least.

This is one location in the tropics where things have developed quickly so I do expect rapid development eventually. Obviously things can take time with a broader low and a larger system, but once the shear lets up anything's possible.

[ozonepete]

The shear is already showing up, over the last several hours the stronger storms that had formed were blown off to the east and weakened, and a dry slot appears to be opening up immediately to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rbtop-long.html

I don't think so Hammy. And I know you are a good observer and know what you are talking about. But look again at those loops. The tops of those thunderstorm were not blown off to the east; they really look like they simply deflated due to DMIN.

[Javlin]

The upper-level low providing the less than ideal upper-air conditions is backing southwest and an analysis of the upper-level winds already indicates upper-level ridging building overhead..

Looks like it took a nudge SE to me may have to wait till morning to see but if it did is it going to follow it's brethen up the E-coast?clouds are streaming W-E across the GOM also.watch the 24hr loop.....

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The upper-level low providing the less than ideal upper-air conditions is backing southwest and an analysis of the upper-level winds already indicates upper-level ridging building overhead..

Looks like it took a nudge SE to me may have to wait till morning to see but if it did is it going to follow it's brethen up the E-coast?clouds are streaming W-E across the GOM also.watch the 24hr loop.....

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

You can probably observe it a little better using this color scale: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

Of note, though convection has weakened, it appears the system has transitioned from more of a disorganized convective scene to a banding-like scene, especially to the northeast.

[Hammy]

The shear is already showing up, over the last several hours the stronger storms that had formed were blown off to the east and weakened, and a dry slot appears to be opening up immediately to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rbtop-long.html

I don't think so Hammy. And I know you are a good observer and know what you are talking about. But look again at those loops. The tops of those thunderstorm were not blown off to the east; they really look like they simply deflated due to DMIN.

I can see what you're talking about better on the water vapor after checking it, as the western point of the convection hasn't really gone east much, and also that the northern extent of the cirrus canopy has extended northward by a decent amount in the last few hours.

[Alyono]

Think the shear is from the EPAC system, not the upper low

[wxman57]

The only reason Brownsville is in the 5-day cone is because of that day 5 position well inland over central Mexico. The error circle at 5 days is much larger. It's not likely the storm would survive as a TS or TD very far inland, though. A 4-day track through landfall would have Brownsville well outside the cone. And remember, the cone is simply representative of a 5-yr 66.7% error, meaning 66.7% of the time, the CENTER of the storms over the past 5 years stayed within that cone area. It has nothing to do with any forecast confidence with this particular track.

That said, I am concerned about the storm possibly tracking inland 100 or so miles north of Tampico and possibly impacting some offshore clients east of Brownsville with 30-35 kt winds. But it appears that the ridge will be strong enough to turn the storm westward once it's around 21-22N. Probably a hurricane at landfall.

Looks fine tonight. The upper low to its north over south TX appears to be weakening and moving off to the west. Should take off in the next 24-36 hrs.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Read 10 PM CDT Discussion here.

[Rgv20]

Special Weather Statement out of the NWS in Brownsville

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
919 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

TXZ248>257-131000-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
919 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL IMPACTS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY AND THEN
START MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MOVING
INLAND ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COASTLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS STEADY SUPPLY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE OF MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE IMPACT OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS THE RAINFALL TOTALS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE URBAN
FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED
BY RECENT RAINS AND THOSE LOW LYING AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD TAKE THE TIME NOW AND CLEAR
DRAINAGE DITCHES...CANALS...CUT GRASSES AND REMOVE ITEMS THAT MAY
CUT OFF SEWER ACCESS. SOME PASTURES MAY FLOOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONTH.
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE LIVESTOCK OUT OF LOW LYING
AREAS TO HIGHER GROUND.

INCREASED SWELL ACTIVITY WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL THEN START TO
DIMINISH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE INCREASING SWELLS WILL
RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SURF WILL LIKELY
REACH OR EXCEED HEAD HEIGHT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SWIMMERS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE SURF WATERS
LATER THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN THE RIP
CURRENTS AND SURF CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE ROUGHEST AND MOST
DANGEROUS.

TIDES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS BY
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ELEVATED TIDES PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. THE
BREAKING GULF WAVES WILL LIKELY PUSH SEA WATER UP TO THE DUNES OF
PADRE ISLAND STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
BEACH EROSION. EXPECT PUBLIC BEACHES TO BE INACCESSIBLE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN INACCESSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. DO NOT PLAN ON DRIVING ON PUBLIC BEACHES
AFTER FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. RESIDENTS AND MARINERS ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND MARINE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

&&

FOR ALL YOUR LOCAL WEATHER NEEDS...GO TO

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV.

$$

SPEECE