ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

SeGaBob · #381 Postby **SeGaBob** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:TD10 or Ingrid now? The SFMR from earlier supported 35-40 kt IMO...

TD10 now it seems...

#382 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:01 pm

the intensity forecast seems strange. A GOM system under light to moderate shear only reaching 50 KT after 4 days over the water?

#383 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:03 pm

Alyono wrote:the intensity forecast seems strange. A GOM system under light to moderate shear only reaching 50 KT after 4 days over the water?

Yeah, I don't know why they're being ultra-conservative here, especially since those in its potential path shouldn't be complacent. I'm sure the discussion will have the usual "could be stronger" weasel language in there.

SeGaBob · #384 Postby **SeGaBob** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:04 pm

If the conditions are "very favorable" one would think it gets stronger than 60mph...

#385 Postby **jeff** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:05 pm

50kt does seem low, but there is lots of disagreement in the intensity guidance from barely a TS to a cat 1. Broad nature could limit near term formation, but once an inner core forms I would say all bets are off. Slow motion could induce some degree of upwelling....but I don't think enough to stop development.

#386 Postby **Extratropical94** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:05 pm

And they say there's only a 9% chance of hurricane development??

davidiowx · #387 Postby **davidiowx** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:05 pm

Hello all. I have lurked a long time and this is my first time posting so hopefully I do this right?

NHC Track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 3W5_NL.gif

#388 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:07 pm

Interesting track movement ... almost 315, straight northwest.

Oh, and welcome davidiowx! Great to see you posting.

#389 Postby **Nikki** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:08 pm

davidiowx wrote:Hello all. I have lurked a long time and this is my first time posting so hopefully I do this right?

NHC Track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 3W5_NL.gif

That sure is quite a northerly track...seems odd.

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davidiowx · #390 Postby **davidiowx** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:08 pm

Yes it is, and it appears they have very little confidence in the track as well, given the size of uncertainty.

Hammy · #391 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:10 pm

On the note of upwelling, I have a question: Nate has been brought up a few times for having failed to strengthen past minimal hurricane due to it, but wasn't there plenty of cooler and drier air in the region that is not present here?

stormlover2013 · #392 Postby **stormlover2013** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:10 pm

Not odd with what euro showed

#393 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:10 pm

davidiowx wrote::uarrow:

Yes it is, and it appears they have very little confidence in the track as well, given the size of uncertainty.

Yep ... Brownsville folks take note ... you're in the cone!

#394 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:10 pm

Read 4 PM CDT Discussion here.

MaineWeatherNut · #395 Postby **MaineWeatherNut** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:12 pm

davidiowx wrote::uarrow:

Yes it is, and it appears they have very little confidence in the track as well, given the size of uncertainty.

They have no control over that. It does a loop there over several days which makes it look like there is larger area of uncertainty. It's all calculated based on their track record of forecasting over the last 10 years or so. They don't increase it or decrease it based on if their not sure about the forecast.

Time_Zone · #396 Postby **Time_Zone** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:13 pm

60 MPH peak?

Man, they better hope this thing doesn't under-go RI or they're going to have a lot of questions to answer from some folks in Mexico.

HurricaneDREW92 · #397 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:15 pm

Time_Zone wrote:60 MPH peak?

Man, they better hope this thing doesn't under-go RI or they're going to have a lot of questions to answer from some folks in Mexico.

Just going conservative. It's days out and intensity forecasts are uncertain. Anyway, you keep flip-floppin :lol:

Time_Zone · #398 Postby **Time_Zone** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:20 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:60 MPH peak?

Man, they better hope this thing doesn't under-go RI or they're going to have a lot of questions to answer from some folks in Mexico.

Just going conservative. It's days out and intensity forecasts are uncertain. Anyway, you keep flip-floppin

Currently i'm not all that impressed with TD10. But if it takes the track that the NHC has and spends all that time over water I find it hard to believe it wouldn't get its act together to become at least a Category 1. Then again....with the way this season has gone -_-

Hurricane_Luis · #399 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:33 pm

Forcast Track for Tropical Deppresion 10.

#400 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:36 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Not odd with what euro showed

if you use EC for intensity, you will fail every single time

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