ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

Where?

My point exactly where are the North winds

[MaineWeatherNut]

Where?

My point exactly where are the North winds

They haven't made a pass that would show north winds. They are doing the standard x pattern through the center.

[SeGaBob]

I think NHC might wait to issue a special advisory on TD10 at 7 or 8pm pending more data.



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Airboy]

I think the real center is where the recon are heading to now

[tropicwatch]

203900 1939N 09339W 9624 00363 0031 +233 +231 290002 003 011 008 00

Lowest pressure so far 1003 at 1939N 09339W

could indicate a center

[tailgater]

I think they may have found one now the pressures look right

[Alyono]

closer to 93.6W... which si in agreement with satellite. Just found a 1003mb low

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion regarding potential impacts on Deep South Texas.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE
FORECAST BECOME MORE TRICKY AND IMMINENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MEXICAN RADAR INDICATE SOME ORGANIZATION
OF THE DISTURBANCE. A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS IN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE AND SEE IF A DEPRESSION IS FORMING. OF COURSE THE
LATEST AND FUTURE FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT OF THE FUTURE TRACK
AND STRENGTHENING OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE TRACK WILL BE THE MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SET SHOP OVER TEXAS BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS
ONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ANOTHER ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER
LOUISIANA LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND IT MAY TAKE UP UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPICO. THE IMPACT WINDOW FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FIRST IMPACTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
COASTAL FLOODING COMING INTO PLAY AS THE PERSIST EAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND COMBINES WITH AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AND SEAS
BUILDING OVER 7 FEET. OVERWASH ON LOCAL BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE
ISSUED EARLY ON AS A LONG SWELL COULD ALLOW FOR BREAKERS OVER HEAD
HIGH.

RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY STARTING
OFF RATHER LOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN DRIER AIR PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE LOWER VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVENTUALLY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WIN OUT BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY
RAIN A GIVEN WITH ANY BANDING OF THE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT HAVE TO BE ISSUED WITH RECENT RAINS AND
THE PROJECTIONS OF WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE LOWER
AND MID VALLEY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND RANCH
LANDS. RAIN CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH ANTICIPATION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND
MONDAY. GFS SUGGEST OTHERWISE KEEPING SOME TYPE OF LOW OFF THE
MEXICAN COAST WHICH IS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO AS THE GENERAL
STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN THE SLOW W-NW
TRACK AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

[bbadon]

It may be tilted a little. The MLC may be up above 20N being tilted by the ULL over TX. The LLC is probably what they are finding now with the 1003 pressure and another wind shift.

Just my thoughts not a forecast.

[Hammy]

My point exactly where are the North winds

Comparing this with the ASCAT, the recon gives a better resolution, and checking the ASCAT afterwards it appears that the center is very elongated. There are probably north winds there given this, but probably 3-4 degrees to the west of where they are.

[SeGaBob]

A 1003mb measurement is equivalent to a minimal TS isn't it?

[MaineWeatherNut]

It may be tilted a little. The MLC may be up above 20N being tilted by the ULL over TX. The LLC is probably what they are finding now with the 1003 pressure and another wind shift.

Just my thoughts not a forecast disclaimer.

I highly doubt it's tilted. There's no shear that would tilt it considering the NHC says it's in a very Favorable environment which would not be the case if there was enough shear to tilt the system.

[Time_Zone]

Wow this thing is an absolute mess.

[pricetag56]

Wow this thing is an absolute mess.

Looks good to me

[SeGaBob]

Wow this thing is an absolute mess.

It seems to be getting better organized to me...

[stormlover2013]

U are acting like it looks horrible which it doesn't lol

[Zanthe]

Looking pretty good.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al102013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309122053
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wow this thing is an absolute mess.

It seems to be getting better organized to me...

Agree with TimeZone. It looked better when is was about to cross the Yucatan peninsula.

[CrazyC83]

TD10 or Ingrid now? The SFMR from earlier supported 35-40 kt IMO...