ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#341 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:07 pm

Into a tropical depression or storm?
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#342 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:07 pm

Confirmed that this is either TD10 or TS Ingrid with the west wind found.
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Re: Re:

#343 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:08 pm

lester wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Recon finding TS level winds.

No west wind yet though...


They found some as of the latest ob. A renumber is imminent


The only TS winds were SFMR estimates that were twice as high as the FL winds. The highest 30-second average FL winds so far were in the 28 knot area, with one 30 knot reading as a 10-second gust. Unless the plane finds sustained winds of 35+ kts soon, this thing might not be a TS right now. TD10 is more likely for now IMO.

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Re: Re:

#344 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:12 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:this thing might not be a TS right now. TD10 is more likely for now IMO.


Very likely correct, but the possibility of a storm upgrade can't be discounted, a precedent seemed to be set with Gabrielle to use SMFR even if higher than flight winds.
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#345 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:14 pm

Doesn't seem to be moving very much right now.

Seems very poorly organized as well.
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#346 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:21 pm

To my eye, it looks like a LLC would be above 20N? Hard to tell.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#347 Postby pricetag56 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:21 pm

Hey I rarely come on here but IT follow what's going on sometimes can any one inform me of what's going on
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#348 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:23 pm

I see they are hinting at below 20N. I wouldn't discredit anything right now.
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#349 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:24 pm

It might just be me but i see storms moving to the east... maybe a sign of thunderstorms getting pulled into the circulation?


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Last edited by SeGaBob on Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#350 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:30 pm

Seems like recon found some TS force winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#351 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:34 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_usaf_zoom.png

Splotch of TS Winds found
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#352 Postby tailgater » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:35 pm

Recon hasn't found a LLC yet if their is one. But I agree it is close and supposedly plently of time over water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#353 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:35 pm

I see no reason why 93L is not being declared a TC right now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#354 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:36 pm

tailgater wrote:Recon hasn't found a LLC yet if their is one. But I agree it is close and supposedly plently of time over water.


...? Yes they did.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#355 Postby tailgater » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:37 pm

Where?
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#356 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:38 pm

It looks like an LLC to me based on that wind shift? With those winds, it would be TS Ingrid right away...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#357 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:38 pm

tailgater wrote:Recon hasn't found a LLC yet if their is one. But I agree it is close and supposedly plently of time over water.


huh? The LLC has clearly been found
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Re:

#358 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It looks like an LLC to me based on that wind shift? With those winds, it would be TS Ingrid right away...


Not even close to Ingrid! Even a 30 KT TD is pushing it based upon the data
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Re:

#359 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:39 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It looks like an LLC to me based on that wind shift? With those winds, it would be TS Ingrid right away...


Near 19.9N 92.9W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#360 Postby NONAME » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:39 pm

tailgater wrote:Where?


Image
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