chaser1 wrote:
Where I disagree with you however is the potential risk to the SE Conus. This present set up could certainly allow a Caribbean borne system to develop and move generally northward and I think Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas and potentially even up to the Carolina's are still very much at risk of a system approaching from the south. I am guessing that their might be a 4 week window for this potential risk. Might be interesting to see if this active monsoon low over/around Central America might be a trigger for any low dragging waves coming across N. South America to peculate, deepen and potentially move NNW or Northward. [/color]
If you look at the 200 mb winds forecasted, for virtually the entire GFS run they are from west to east across even the southern part of Florida, and pretty strong at that. Unless it is a weak sheared system, there is no way for anything to make it that far from the east.
It is true that something could form in the Caribbean ala Wilma and move northeastward over west Florida. But with the Texas ridge holding its grip, that might not be feasible.
The Mexican coast is definitely the hot spot this year...no question about it.
