ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Ummm, steering currents suppose to break down anytime soon? This thing looks like it's racing towards to coast and will be inland in a day or two if the center is where I think it is based on Vis Loop. Just on the western edge of the blob.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Sanibel]

Appears to be getting its sea legs back and forming. Moving fast though.

[Houstonia]

A couple of questions that might be borderline off-topic.

1) is recon scheduled?
2) where is recon plane leaving from?
3) what does recon plane look like?

I was walking into work just now and saw a massive plane flying pretty low over downtown and heading towards the Gulf. It didn't look like a passenger plane - looked more military. It could have been flying to Ellington Field, but I'm wondering if it's doing recon.

[Extratropical94]

A couple of questions that might be borderline off-topic.

1) is recon scheduled?
2) where is recon plane leaving from?
3) what does recon plane look like?

I was walking into work just now and saw a massive plane flying pretty low over downtown and heading towards the Gulf. It didn't look like a passenger plane - looked more military. It could have been flying to Ellington Field, but I'm wondering if it's doing recon.

Scheduled to leave four minutes ago (15:15 UTC) from Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi.

I believe they look like this:

[RL3AO]

A couple of questions that might be borderline off-topic.

1) is recon scheduled?
2) where is recon plane leaving from?
3) what does recon plane look like?

I was walking into work just now and saw a massive plane flying pretty low over downtown and heading towards the Gulf. It didn't look like a passenger plane - looked more military. It could have been flying to Ellington Field, but I'm wondering if it's doing recon.

It left from Keesler AFB in Bilouxi, MS. If thats where you are near, then yep, that was probably what you saw as they took off in the past hour.

[cycloneye]

Officially,recon will fly this afternoon.

[Houstonia]

A couple of questions that might be borderline off-topic.

1) is recon scheduled?
2) where is recon plane leaving from?
3) what does recon plane look like?

I was walking into work just now and saw a massive plane flying pretty low over downtown and heading towards the Gulf. It didn't look like a passenger plane - looked more military. It could have been flying to Ellington Field, but I'm wondering if it's doing recon.

It left from Keesler AFB in Bilouxi, MS. If thats where you are near, then yep, that was probably what you saw as they took off in the past hour.

Kinda looks like the plane I saw, but I'm in downtown Houston, so I doubt it was that plane.
thank you!

[ROCK]

your right... the LLC is on the western edge....its in a hurry...

[cycloneye]

Todays discussion of 93L by Dr Jeff Masters.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico

[Portastorm]

The system also appears to my untrained eye to be moving quickly w-nw but are we sure we aren't focusing on an MLC or one of several LLCs? Reason I pose this is because every pro met including NHC have talked this morning about a slow motion and collapsing steering currents. How could they be THAT wrong?

[Time_Zone]

sure look like it moving in a hurry to me as well.

Might not be as strong as I feared if it continue moving so quickly

[Alyono]

the faster motion sure has my attention. May be partially an illusion, however as the convection wraps around the center

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

If I had to guess looking at the water vapor loop sped up, the ULL over Texas seems to be dropping south relatively quickly. Once it gets to the west of this system, that would slow down the forward speed. IMO....to my eye it doesn't appear to be moving to rapidly.

ALL PERSONAL OPINIONS. OFFICIAL FORECASTING BY NHC.

[Time_Zone]

the faster motion sure has my attention. May be partially an illusion, however as the convection wraps around the center

Guess we'll find out when recon gets there whats really going on!

[ROCK]

maybe its making a loop? I see the low level clouds wrapping to the wnw edge...

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091212/gfs_mslpa_watl.html

GFS is obviously confused. Four days in the BOC? I wouldn't even call that a forward speed. More like a drift.

[HurriGuy]

maybe its making a loop? I see the low level clouds wrapping to the wnw edge...

I was thinking about that. It is in the position where the GFS ensembles had it looping.

[wxman57]

:?: Just curious. I know everyone is discussing "landfall" location, but what will the storm do AND go after landfall? Will she continue west? Will she turn northward? And can we expect ANY moisture from her in TX AFTER landfall? All I have read is her possible landfall location and nothing on where she will go after landfall. Many tropical systems create havoc of flooding rains days after they have made landfall. Just wondring if we can POSSIBLY expect a piece of her later down the road. Thanks!

It appears that the ridge will remain over Texas through early next week. That would keep all the moisture from this storm well south of SE TX.

[Time_Zone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-bd.html

hmm....

[tropicwatch]

93L is under some heavy shear right now http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF that will keep it from ramping up for a little while.