Low Pressure in Western Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

Remains at 10% at 8 PM TWO.

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

yeah convection got blown off, however the fact there is convection means we still have plenty of convergence at the surface which is amazing for such a long lasting naked swirl. the first burs blown off but looks like another is starting. also it should be moving into a better upper environment to the west as seen on cimss

[Gustywind]

Remains at 10% at 8 PM TWO.

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

yeah convection got blown off, however the fact there is convection means we still have plenty of convergence at the surface which is amazing for such a long lasting naked swirl. the first burs blown off but looks like another is starting. also it should be moving into a better upper environment to the west as seen on cimss

Interresting comment Aric. So, you think that tonight we could see another big burst of convection closer to the Leewards? If i've well understand Aric, we should deal with at least with some showers but nothing more? I ask you that because, our Pro Met let us in green code meaning no real threat due to showers and tstorms.

Gustywind

[Aric Dunn]

yeah convection got blown off, however the fact there is convection means we still have plenty of convergence at the surface which is amazing for such a long lasting naked swirl. the first burs blown off but looks like another is starting. also it should be moving into a better upper environment to the west as seen on cimss

Interresting comment Aric. So, you think that tonight we could see another big burst of convection closer to the Leewards? If i've well understand Aric, we should deal with at least with some showers but nothing more? I ask you that because, our Pro Met let us in green code meaning no real threat due to showers and tstorms.

Gustywind

Right now thats all your looking at.. need to see what happens

[Gustywind]

yeah convection got blown off, however the fact there is convection means we still have plenty of convergence at the surface which is amazing for such a long lasting naked swirl. the first burs blown off but looks like another is starting. also it should be moving into a better upper environment to the west as seen on cimss

Interresting comment Aric. So, you think that tonight we could see another big burst of convection closer to the Leewards? If i've well understand Aric, we should deal with at least with some showers but nothing more? I ask you that because, our Pro Met let us in green code meaning no real threat due to showers and tstorms.

Gustywind

Right now thats all your looking at.. need to see what happens

ok Thanks.

[CrazyC83]

This deserves to develop. It has survived a week in the most hostile conditions imaginable...

[HURAKAN]

This deserves to develop. It has survived a week in the most hostile conditions imaginable...

If it gets a break, I think it will. Usually these tough waves develop once conditions allow them.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is interesting, breaks the area into 2 lows with an area at about 68W while the other area is near Florida, while the 12zEuro is out around Bermuda with a weaker ridge so the moral to this is that if you have a convecting system it needs to be watched because if this finds a good environment it could explode rapidly and all you need as an example is Andrew in 1992

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

The 18zGFS is interesting, breaks the area into 2 lows with an area at about 68W while the other area is near Florida, while the 12zEuro is out around Bermuda with a weaker ridge so the moral to this is that if you have a convecting system it needs to be watched because if this finds a good environment it could explode rapidly and all you need as an example is Andrew in 1992

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Is this the storm that the most recent 18z & 00z runs of the GFS has been showing in the Bahamas around 300hrs. developing?

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is interesting, breaks the area into 2 lows with an area at about 68W while the other area is near Florida, while the 12zEuro is out around Bermuda with a weaker ridge so the moral to this is that if you have a convecting system it needs to be watched because if this finds a good environment it could explode rapidly and all you need as an example is Andrew in 1992

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Is this the storm that the most recent 18z & 00z runs of the GFS has been showing in the Bahamas around 300hrs. developing?

Im not sure, but it could be a mix of this and the monsoon trough

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[lester]

LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 23m

Sleeper system in the Atlantic looks better this morning pic.twitter.com/tCN0k8a5wY

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD.

A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 19N64W TO 11N59W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 24N65W 18N62W
TO 15N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-
16N BETWEEN 53W-62W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN DOMINICA AND
SAINT LUCIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOST OF THE ATLC.

[Aric Dunn]

closed persistent convection ( though limited... ) I wonder what that means...

[gatorcane]

Looks like development chances have increased. When this was 98L a week ago, I expected this to make a run at development down the road and looks like that is what might happening. Right now the GFS and ECMWF don't develop this into anything significant and both models keep this east of the CONUS, though the GFS is further to the west.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Decent circulation given the conditions...

[floridasun78]

area tiny models support gfs very little support it look maybe td on last run but kill it

[chaser1]

closed persistent convection ( though limited... ) I wonder what that means...

...that it has a nice mid to low level vorticity, but fighting for its (puny sized) life? LOL

Looks decent on this a.m.'s Vis. satellite but boy, is it sure having to deal with the same 2013 MDR curse dry air (not to mention present upper level northerly shear). In spite of the shear, if this thing had the moisture field that 93L has, I be betting big time that this would soon develop. What is most interesting to me though is how this feature has seemed to have dropped in latitude a bit over the last few days while slowly moving westward. The GFS 200mb does seem to indicate that if this feature can push west a bit further upper air would almost certainly improve. At present the nearly cut off upper level low at about 25N & 45W is throwing down some pretty stiff northerly flow over this nearly naked system, but that looks to change fairly soon. Per the GFS this a.m., this upper level low looks to shoot to the NW and its energy pulled into the westerlies nearly 15 degrees further away in about 48 hours. Even by this evening it would seem to me that the upper level flow over this feature should improve a bit. Providing that this feature can remain south of 20N while moving westward, it seems to me that the primary issue than will be dry air. Not sure if it can overcome the stable air issues but given the falling pressures along with its own persistence thus far AND warmer SST's ahead, i'd say that this would seem to be something that P.R. and the northern islands certainly have on their radar.

[HurrMark]

I don't see anything on the GFS. I see a little low level vorticity that disappears after four days, but that is about it.

That said, I do not see anything threatening the US for the next couple of weeks. That east coast trough, which has more or less been semi-permanent virtually every season since 2006, will not go away, and anything coming close to the western Atlantic will easily recurve. Maybe in a couple of weeks the pattern will change, but then you are getting close to October. I am not going to be surprised if we make it through another year without not just a major hurricane (8 in a row), but any kind of hurricane striking the US (which would make it 6 out of the last 14).

[chaser1]

I don't see anything on the GFS. I see a little low level vorticity that disappears after four days, but that is about it.

That said, I do not see anything threatening the US for the next couple of weeks. That east coast trough, which has more or less been semi-permanent virtually every season since 2006, will not go away, and anything coming close to the western Atlantic will easily recurve. Maybe in a couple of weeks the pattern will change, but then you are getting close to October. I am not going to be surprised if we make it through another year without not just a major hurricane (8 in a row), but any kind of hurricane striking the US (which would make it 6 out of the last 14).

Well, I kind of agree but also disagree with a couple things you mentioned. True, that the GFS does not develop this small system, but model support could just as easily change and the 0Z GFS & CMC runs tonight could just as easily start to show some development. Of course that is conjecture and just remains to be seen if upper level conditions truly do improve enough for this to take advantage of.

While I probably would tend to agree that it would seem difficult for the Conus to be impacted by an approaching hurricane from the Southeast, I certainly don't think that this is out of the question. If you look at the 500mb levels, the GFS shows increasing ridging across the tropical Atlantic which builds west over time. At about 130 hours you do not see a trough off the Conus E. Coast, but ridging instead. In fact, there is generally ridging in place through at least 200 hours. Now, 3 days is not an eternity however it is "a window". Often times this is exactly why and how the Southeast does receive impact from the Southeast even in between troughs.

I think the bigger issue than simply the "trough-ridge, trough-ridge setup", is also the displacement of the present W. Atlantic ridging over the tropical regions. This new surging ridge forecast to spread westward seems to be displaced farther south than normal. The orientation & strength of the ridging would seem to have a hard time right now carrying a hurricane West or WNW unless another "bubble high" over or east of the Bahamas were to suddenly be a bit stronger in between troughs and thus potentially continue to push a storm WNW'ward.

Where I disagree with you however is the potential risk to the SE Conus. This present set up could certainly allow a Caribbean borne system to develop and move generally northward and I think Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas and potentially even up to the Carolina's are still very much at risk of a system approaching from the south. I am guessing that their might be a 4 week window for this potential risk. Might be interesting to see if this active monsoon low over/around Central America might be a trigger for any low dragging waves coming across N. South America to peculate, deepen and potentially move NNW or Northward.