ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 50%-70%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IF IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FAR ENOUGH
FROM LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

Land interaction will likely be the decider for intensity. If it moves north and stays away from land for an extended period, I see no reason why we won't have Hurricane Ingrid, perhaps even the first major of 2013.

Have models trended south or do they still weaken the ridge?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

Land interaction will likely be the decider for intensity. If it moves north and stays away from land for an extended period, I see no reason why we won't have Hurricane Ingrid, perhaps even the first major of 2013.

Have models trended south or do they still weaken the ridge?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They have trended south today.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Land interaction will likely be the decider for intensity. If it moves north and stays away from land for an extended period, I see no reason why we won't have Hurricane Ingrid, perhaps even the first major of 2013.

Have models trended south or do they still weaken the ridge?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NAVGEM sends this towards Texas, GFS is into northern Mexico. I'd say the chances of a USA landfall have decreased since yesterday though. Doesn't mean southern Texas can't see impacts.

This is shaping up to be a bad situation for Mexico. Given the favorable upper air environment and established mid-level vortex that may work down to the surface before even emerging into the Bay of Campeche (onshore flow is diverted eastward just onshore which helps strengthen the southern side of circulations [one of the reasons why once TD 2...Barry...'s circulation became better defined over land]) this should have no problem developing very rapidly in the Bay of Campeche. The chances of this becoming a hurricane are quite high, if you ask me.

But I've been wrong before.

[Rgv20]

Land interaction will likely be the decider for intensity. If it moves north and stays away from land for an extended period, I see no reason why we won't have Hurricane Ingrid, perhaps even the first major of 2013.

Have models trended south or do they still weaken the ridge?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NAVGEM sends this towards Texas, GFS is into northern Mexico. I'd say the chances of a USA landfall have decreased since yesterday though. Doesn't mean southern Texas can't see impacts.

This is shaping up to be a bad situation for Mexico. Given the favorable upper air environment and established mid-level vortex that may work down to the surface before even emerging into the Bay of Campeche (onshore flow is diverted eastward just onshore which helps strengthen the southern side of circulations [one of the reasons why once TD 2...Barry...'s circulation became better defined over land]) this should have no problem developing very rapidly in the Bay of Campeche. The chances of this becoming a hurricane are quite high, if you ask me.

But I've been wrong before.

The only problem I see with 93L becoming a hurricane is the broad nature of this system but if it get going it can rapidly intensify (Ex: Hurricane Alex 2010)

[TheStormExpert]

New Video Discussion by Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan:
Storm Likely to Form in SW Gulf of Mexico – Will Threaten Mexico and Possibly Southern Texas
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2013/09/11/storm-likely-to-form-in-sw-gulf-of-mexico-will-threaten-mexico-and-possibly-southern-texas/

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2013091200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 898W, 25, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

Is now moving WNW at 285 degrees. This movement seals the deal about emerging to the water instead of staying overland.

LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 89.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Correct me if i'm wrong. Check out the water Vapor Loop. Is that an ULL forming or weakening in the SW Gulf/BOC. It also seems to be one over Texas and another near the Florida Panhandle region. I'm wondering what influence might these features have on 93L. Perhaps that's the reason why some of the models keep the feature in the BOC for a while.

[caneman]

Any chance that Northern part takes over? We'll see if it holds together.

[Dean4Storms]

Is now moving WNW at 285 degrees. This movement seals the deal about emerging to the water instead of staying overland.

LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 89.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

I was about to post that the lower level spin over the Yucatan is gaining latitude tonight big time. It might even be more like 290 degree's.

[tailgater]

Very unimpressive tonite. A good deal of shear right now.

[HouTXmetro]

Does anyone think chances may be lowered in next update? I know convection usually diminishes this time of night but it looks like shear is having an impact now as tailgator said.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone think chances may be lowered in next update? I know convection usually diminishes this time of night but it looks like shear is having an impact now as tailgator said.

could be. Of course a slower development increases the chance of a Mexico landfall....If it were to spin up real quick, then Texas might be under the gun.....

[HouTXmetro]

Does anyone think chances may be lowered in next update? I know convection usually diminishes this time of night but it looks like shear is having an impact now as tailgator said.

could be. Of course a slower development increases the chance of a Mexico landfall....If it were to spin up real quick, then Texas might be under the gun.....

Conversely I'd argue slower development gives the "coc" a better chance of relocating further North, that's assuming it slows down.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone think chances may be lowered in next update? I know convection usually diminishes this time of night but it looks like shear is having an impact now as tailgator said.

could be. Of course a slower development increases the chance of a Mexico landfall....If it were to spin up real quick, then Texas might be under the gun.....

Conversely I'd argue slower development gives the "coc" a better chance of relocating further North, that's assuming it slows down.

The slower it develops the more likely Texas will be threatened, the quicker it develops the more likely Mexico will be threatened.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 112300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3N 89.3W TO 19.1N 93.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
APPROXIMATELY 608NM SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE, TX. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE REMAINS ORGANIZED IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT NO SURFACE CIRCULATION IS APPARENT AT
THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 87 DEGREES
WILL FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 122300Z.//

[South Texas Storms]

NHC 1 am TWO: 60% - 80%

"SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES."

[Hammy]

I don't think I've seen a TCFA issued before for a system still over land.

[GCANE]

The ULL over Georgia's Atlantic coast will likely create a poleward outflow channel once this gets out over the water.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24