Low Pressure in Western Atlantic

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:23 am

This Tropical Wave is increasing in convection this morning and bears watching as it is moving right now into a more favorable UL environment. Also the ECM tracks a fairly significant Vort from this into the Bahamas in 10 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:28 am

Ahhh NHC

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:59 am

Is unclear if 98L will be reactivated for this wave so for now this thread remains open until further notice.

#4 Postby **SFLcane** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 8:21 am

European model bring it into the bahamas and tries somehwat to develope it but you can see another trof waiting to recurve it. For now conditions remain hostile

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:51 am

SFLcane wrote:European model bring it into the bahamas and tries somehwat to develope it but you can see another trof waiting to recurve it. For now conditions remain hostile

Yeah but that trough is out there at 240 hours and beyond. Way too early to say if the trough will get it or not.

Also too early to say if it will manage to develop but I think chances are going up it actually does when it gets further west in about a week.

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Gustywind · #6 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:22 am

Perturbed weather is anticipated tonight for Guadeloupe and Martinica. Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, numerous strong showers and even tstorms are expected tonight and till tommorow Thursday. Maybe a yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms? We will see, but for sure i will keep you informed if antyhing happens here

.

Gustywind

beoumont · #7 Postby **beoumont** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:31 am

Whatever it is, it sure has a unique looking WV "cloud" signature; appears possibly a result of convergence between two giant upper lows.

floridasun78 · #8 Postby **floridasun78** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:38 am

do it look moving sw but models got it east of bahamas few days???

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:39 pm

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AT TIME. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

#10 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:49 pm

12z GEM/CMC develops this area and recurves out to sea...

Gustywind · #11 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 1:47 pm

2 PM TWD.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY START GENERATING
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR E-NE CARIBBEAN AS SOON AS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

Aric Dunn · #12 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:15 pm

12z euro calling for development

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

#13 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:12z euro calling for development

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

Looks like a recurve, maybe Bermuda...I had a suspicion this area would eventually do something...

Aric Dunn · #14 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:32 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:12z euro calling for development

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

Looks like a recurve, maybe Bermuda...I had a suspicion this area would eventually do something...

yesterday it had it caught under that large ridge moving off east coast at end of run then move into northern bahamas to far out... but could be a threat.. maybe even to the islands if it can keep the convection at least in pulses till it can find a better environment.

Gustywind · #15 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:12z euro calling for development

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

Looks like a recurve, maybe Bermuda...I had a suspicion this area would eventually do something...

yesterday it had it caught under that large ridge moving off east coast at end of run then move into northern bahamas to far out... but could be a threat.. maybe even to the islands if it can keep the convection at least in pulses till it can find a better environment.

Thanks for that post Aric. What type of threat? Showers and tstorms or more? :roll:

Aric Dunn · #16 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:59 pm

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Looks like a recurve, maybe Bermuda...I had a suspicion this area would eventually do something...

yesterday it had it caught under that large ridge moving off east coast at end of run then move into northern bahamas to far out... but could be a threat.. maybe even to the islands if it can keep the convection at least in pulses till it can find a better environment.

Thanks for that post Aric. What type of threat? Showers and tstorms or more?

yeah, if it were to develop it would likely not be anything more than a td or weak TS .. would just expect rain wind...

Aric Dunn · #17 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:39 pm

nice burst of convection near and beginning to cover that circ... if that keeps doing that it will help tighten it up and nhc may up their chances this evening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Gustywind · #18 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:51 pm

Aric, thanks for your input.

#19 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:nice burst of convection near and beginning to cover that circ... if that keeps doing that it will help tighten it up and nhc may up their chances this evening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

I agree.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:28 pm

Remains at 10% at 8 PM TWO.

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Low Pressure in Western Atlantic

Low Pressure in Western Atlantic

Re: Tropical Wave near 55w

Re: Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles - 10% - 10%

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Re: Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles - 10% - 10%

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Re: Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles - 10% - 10%

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