ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

RainbowAppleJackDash · #501 Postby **RainbowAppleJackDash** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:34 pm

I think le Berto will reach 120ish knots. He might be eating dusty air at the moment but he has the time to restrengthen...?
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TropicalAnalystwx13 · #502 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:39 pm

Humberto has about 12 more hours to intensify before getting into cooler waters and a high shear environment. The fat lady isn't singing yet though. After 120 hours, there are indications that the system will get into warmer waters again and embed itself within a low shear environment. Both the GFS and ECMWF show re-intensification into a hurricane, and in fact, the ECMWF makes it a 972mb hurricane!

#503 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:42 pm

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 29.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Read 5 PM Discussion here.

Hammy · #504 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:45 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Humberto has about 12 more hours to intensify before getting into cooler waters and a high shear environment. The fat lady isn't singing yet though. After 120 hours, there are indications that the system will get into warmer waters again and embed itself within a low shear environment. Both the GFS and ECMWF show re-intensification into a hurricane, and in fact, the ECMWF makes it a 972mb hurricane!

gotta wonder if that plays out what the real-time intensity would be, as the Euro tends to be a little high on pressure.

ninel conde · #505 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:00 pm

due north is right into the dry air. we will see if it can survive.

#506 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:28 pm

Hmmm. Convection building with colder cloud tops even though it's at DMIN. Certainly makes more strengthening more likely. Has really grown in size as well which helps keep dry air out.

Hammy · #507 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:37 pm

Interesting comparison between yesterday and today to show just how much things can change in 24 hours.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013AL09/4KMIRIMG/2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309102130.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013AL09/4KMIRIMG/2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309112045.GIF

#508 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:32 pm

Biggest, strongest TC of the season so far. A lot of convection for DMIN time.

HurricaneDREW92 · #509 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:15 pm

Storm parades north...what a beauty

#510 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:26 pm

Yeah. Has consistently held on to nice closed banding. Keeps the dry air out. And there's two more strong waves behind it.

Gustywind · #511 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:32 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Yeah. Has consistently held on to nice closed banding. Keeps the dry air out. And there's two more strong waves behind it.

Is that a sign that things could heating up during the next couple of days? :double:

#512 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:33 pm

Well, Mother Nature made us wait seemingly forever, but she has finally given us a full fledged hurricane to track in the Atlantic basin.

Humberto has become a large and rather formidable tropical cyclone. It looks as if will be around for quite some time to come. I will be interested to see what happens in about 5 days after the storm finishes traverses over cooler SSTs and moves into the Central Atlantic.

hurricanes1234 · #513 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:36 pm

Storm parades north...what a beauty

What does this mean? :ggreen:

#514 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:40 pm

Gustywind wrote:
ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Yeah. Has consistently held on to nice closed banding. Keeps the dry air out. And there's two more strong waves behind it.

Is that a sign that things could heating up during the next couple of days?

Looks that way, gusty. All of the global models have a TS in the western GOM this weekend (NAVGEM has a hurricane) and something coming off of Africa early next week. Looks like the heart of the season is starting to fire.

Gustywind · #515 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:51 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Yeah. Has consistently held on to nice closed banding. Keeps the dry air out. And there's two more strong waves behind it.

Is that a sign that things could heating up during the next couple of days?

Looks that way, gusty. All of the global models have a TS in the western GOM this weekend (NAVGEM has a hurricane) and something coming off of Africa early next week. Looks like the heart of the season is starting to fire.

Looks like , given your statement, agree with that. After a "strange short lull", things are changing now. Thanks for these nice infos Ozonepete (as usual). I think that Cycloneye and the others carib friends, monitor closely all these twaves as IMO any feature could be a potential threat for any land mass area .... as we're in the peak of the season. Let's wait an see...

#516 Postby **Caribwxgirl** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:52 pm

Hammy wrote:Interesting comparison between yesterday and today to show just how much things can change in 24 hours.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013AL09/4KMIRIMG/2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309102130.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013AL09/4KMIRIMG/2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309112045.GIF

Excellent comparison what a difference a day makes.

#517 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:00 pm

Watch the satellite loops - dry air is getting pulled in on the outermost western side of the circulation. Not so sure the circulation envelope will keep it out tonight.

#518 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:17 pm

I think it has about 12 hours to make a strengthening move with DMAX. After that, the dry air and cooler waters should slow it down and weaken it. At least that is my guess...

TheStormExpert · #519 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:32 pm

ozonepete wrote:Biggest, strongest TC of the season so far. A lot of convection for DMIN time.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sattroprgb2013-09-112145_zps770e5357.jpg

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/sattropavn2013-09-112145_zpsde2a14aa.jpg

Hurricane Humberto is definitely bigger in size than Texas! :double:

TheStormExpert · #520 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Sep 11, 2013 7:33 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Well, Mother Nature made us wait seemingly forever, but she has finally given us a full fledged hurricane to track in the Atlantic basin.

Humberto has become a large and rather formidable tropical cyclone. It looks as if will be around for quite some time to come. I will be interested to see what happens in about 5 days after the storm finishes traverses over cooler SSTs and moves into the Central Atlantic.

Maybe mother nature saved the best for last this season.

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