ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 12z buries it in BOC

[HouTXmetro]

Things surely change quick in the tropics.

[TexWx]

Is 93L moving a little to the SW now?

[Hammy]

Just to point out, both Fernand and Barry were in this very same position, and if I recall the models showed little to no emergence in the Bay of Campeche. For some reason systems like to take a swing northwest in this area, and the models have consistently underdeveloped things in the Gulf this year--Andrea was only shown to peak at 40kts, Barry not even making it into Gulf once over land, Fernand as a weak depression, and TD8 was not shown as developing at all.

[Stormcenter]

This invest watching thing has worn me out already. I'm personally looking forward to the first real cold front.

[PauleinHouston]

Is 93L moving a little to the SW now?

Here's a link to Belize's hydromet site radar: http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop
Definitely can see the circulation, but hard to tell what sort of movement is going on.

[Wx_Warrior]

This invest watching thing has worn me out already. I'm personally looking forward to the first real cold front.

Hopefully sooner, rather than later

[Tireman4]

This invest watching thing has worn me out already. I'm personally looking forward to the first real cold front.

Hopefully sooner, rather than later

AMEN!!!

[Dave]

Off topic for a second...doing my best to get a cold front into ya'all in Texas but you may have to unlock a door for us to do that! I've got 40 to 45 F on Saturday morning....say hello to a taste of fall.



Now back to the tropics!

[Tireman4]

Off topic for a second...doing my best to get a cold front into ya'all in Texas but you may have to unlock a door for us to do that! I've got 40 to 45 F on Saturday morning....say hello to a taste of fall.



Now back to the tropics!

Oh great Dave. You flash us then leave. Great. Sigh....LOL. We do want the front. Now. Back to the tropics....

[Dave]

Off topic for a second...doing my best to get a cold front into ya'all in Texas but you may have to unlock a door for us to do that! I've got 40 to 45 F on Saturday morning....say hello to a taste of fall.



Now back to the tropics!

Oh great Dave. You flash us then leave. Great. Sigh....LOL. We do want the front. Now. Back to the tropics....

Haven't left yet! LOL Just thought I'd toss that into the mix...throw a key under the front door mat if nothing else.

[Extratropical94]

Lots of recon missions planned for 93L as of today's TCPOD:

Code: Select all

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--          FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71--
       A. 12/1800Z                     A. 13/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST           B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1515Z                     C. 13/0900Z
       D. 19.5N 93.0W                  D. 19.5N 94.0W
       E. 12/1745Z TO 12/2100Z         E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1530
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT             F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES AS
       LONG AS SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.     
    3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE GLOBAL HAWK MISSION FOR 13/1100Z INTO
        HURRICANE HUMBERTO OR BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM.

[Dave]

that's what I get for trying to drop a cold front on all of you huh! I'll be around tomorrow.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: that's what I get for trying to drop a cold front on all of you huh! I'll be around tomorrow.

What are your highs supposed to be this week Dave?

[cycloneye]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOMORROW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOWS SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FAR ENOUGH FROM LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE VERY SLOWLY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Dave]

:uarrow: that's what I get for trying to drop a cold front on all of you huh! I'll be around tomorrow.

What are your highs supposed to be this week Dave?

Today 90, Thursday 84, Friday & Saturday 69 with overnight lows dropping into the 40 to 45 range.

[Portastorm]

Off topic, gents. Let's keep focused on 93L please. Thanks!

[Extratropical94]

:uarrow: that's what I get for trying to drop a cold front on all of you huh! I'll be around tomorrow.

I'll help out aswell. By the way, I'd love to send some of our weather here to Texas cause we're definitely not in need of cold fronts... highs in the lower 50s and raining, I guess it's already fall here.

Back on topic, on the last few frames I somehow still see a due west motion, not at 18N as BT suggests but more at 18.3/18.4 N. That might of course just be the mid-level rotation and I'm totally clueless what a possible LLC/broad surface spin underneath that CDO could do.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Hurricane_Luis]

Centre North east of the Belize-Mexico border

Invest 93L

[Dave]

:uarrow:

Off topic, gents. Let's keep focused on 93L please. Thanks!

Busted!! Back to the tropics....but even a mod has to do it once in awhile!