ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Looks healthy but it also still looks like a TS - due to location no recon available so any upgrade is going to be based on what the satellite meteorologist is seeing...

Microwave and ASCAT passes are also available.

[CrazyC83]

Most recent microwave pass. Partial eyewall trying to form.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the satellite estimates and microwave, I'd still go with 60 kt. Not enough to suggest a hurricane at this time...I'd want to see T4.0 which it doesn't appear to be.

[Hammy]

Starting to have the Dorian/Erin look to it
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309101145.GIF

I'm only seeing a very tiny area of storms in the otherwise dried-up center at the moment. The curse of 2013 continues

[galaxy401]

Starting to have the Dorian/Erin look to it
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309101145.GIF

I'm only seeing a very tiny area of storms in the otherwise dried-up center at the moment. The curse of 2013 continues

Or it could just be d-min. Let's wait and see before you quickly write this off.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks healthy but it also still looks like a TS - due to location no recon available so any upgrade is going to be based on what the satellite meteorologist is seeing...

Microwave and ASCAT passes are also available.

You know, if it gets within a couple of hours and they don't have compelling support, I almost wish they'd hold off intentionally to make the record. I know that's not how they work, but still .....

'Course then, maybe one of the other two will screw things up, eh?

[CrazyC83]

10/1800 UTC 14.7N 27.8W T3.5/3.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[tolakram]

Starting to have the Dorian/Erin look to it
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309101145.GIF

I'm only seeing a very tiny area of storms in the otherwise dried-up center at the moment. The curse of 2013 continues

How are you analyzing the dry air? I see lack of convection at the moment, but I don't know the reason.

[cycloneye]

10/1800 UTC 14.7N 27.8W T3.5/3.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

The clock is ticking.

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to ... T12&p0=%3A

[cycloneye]

Up to 60kts on 18z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2013091018, , BEST, 0, 147N, 279W, 60, 993, TS

[Hammy]

Starting to have the Dorian/Erin look to it
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309101145.GIF

I'm only seeing a very tiny area of storms in the otherwise dried-up center at the moment. The curse of 2013 continues

How are you analyzing the dry air? I see lack of convection at the moment, but I don't know the reason.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_16KMGWVP_201309090015.GIF

I think I pointed this out originally yesterday, the dry air has continued to push south towards Humberto, and as it's gotten closer the convection has decreased. And the high clouds on the northern extent of the outflow seem to be pushing south with it, so based on this, it appears that dry air is getting entrained into the circulation, as well as light northerly shear.

the above post is the personal opinion of the poster, and not official.

[Macrocane]

I don't think it's dry air, just a D-min. Let's wait if convection doesn't fire up again in a couple of hours I will believe it ingested dry air.

[tolakram]

I think I pointed this out originally yesterday, the dry air has continued to push south towards Humberto, and as it's gotten closer the convection has decreased. And the high clouds on the northern extent of the outflow seem to be pushing south with it, so based on this, it appears that dry air is getting entrained into the circulation, as well as light northerly shear.

the above post is the personal opinion of the poster, and not official.

Thanks.

I see the dry air moving closer but I don't see it making it to the system or showing up on MIMIC-TPW. The latest euro run still has this deepening over the next 48 hours, something it never did with our last duds. This is why I suspect it's just a pulse.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Just now coming into range.

18:45Z

[Aric Dunn]

new microwave image.. showing a small eye now they will likely do 70 or 75 at 5pm

[SeGaBob]

I hope it's 70 because we just HAVE to break the record.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Countdown to record: 12 hours 35 minuites 25 seconds (As of 20:25 UTC 10/9/13)

Just a note: the record is at 9:00am tomorrow morning.

[HURAKAN]

The record is at 12Z tomorrow, which means that we're still over 16 hours from reaching it.

[hurricanes1234]

Doesn't this look like a hurricane?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank2]

Rats - looks like we're going to have a hurricane just short of the record, or as Fred Mertz would say, "That's life"...

P.S. That giant TIFF photo posted above caused my computer to hang up for a few minutues...

LOL