Has anyone noticed...

[ncweatherwizard]

That the SHIPS model takes Isabel down to 71kts in 120 hours. Wonder what that's based on... :?

[slosh]

I can never remember - which model accounts for lloss of intensity due to landfall and which ones do not?

[rainydaze]

Maybe it's based on luck

[ameriwx2003]

Yes the SHIPS intensity model has been doing that since at least yesterday morning.. I am not sure on any reasoning, Though The SHIPS maybe weakening it due to to this: This was in a TPC discussion 2 days ago.

SST ANALYSES SHOW THAT ISABEL WILL BE PASSING OVER THE
COOL WAKE OF FABIAN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
RESTRICTION OF THE OUTFLOW BY THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EVEN IF THAT LOW DOES NOT COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
APPRECIABLY AFFECT THE TRACK. IT IS ALSO QUITE RARE FOR STORMS TO
MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS FOR FIVE DAYS. EVEN WITH THIS
ADJUSTMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GFDL AND SHIPS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/di ... .012.shtml?

[JCT777]

I can understand SOME level of weakening for Isabel - based on the TPC discussion. But down to 71 KTS? I don't think so.

[ameriwx2003]

John.. Oh I agree... The SHIPS intensity forecast is out to lunch:):)

[JetMaxx]

I honestly don't see it....the GFDL is an enviromental sensitive model and it weakens Isabel slightly -- but then has it strengthening again at the 4 and 5 day forecast point...which is climatologically normal for a westward moving hurricane north of Hispanola in September (remember how Floyd explosively deepened over the warm waters east of the Bahamas?).

I was being conservative when forecasting 140 mph near Nassau on my 7 day forecast last night. I honestly believe it could be stronger :o

[beenthru6]

JetMaxx, that is a very seriously scary scenario. I am a novice at meteorology, (although it does fascinate me) and was wondering what, if any effect the gulf stream has on a hurricanes direction once it gets there (into the gulf stream). I have been through 6 canes that have affected the Myrtle Beach area, and some of those were originally forecast to hit Fla, but emded up in se NC and surrounding area. BTW, I am really learning a bunch from all of you here!

[ncweatherwizard]

Gulf stream doesn't have an effect on movement; just happens that some troughs push storms parallel to the coast at the last minute, and thus up the Gulf Stream.

[beenthru6]

Thanks for answering my question Weatherwizard!

[Derek Ortt]

Explained this last evening, technical issue in the model, not one to be paid much attention to

[Hurrilurker]

I can never remember - which model accounts for lloss of intensity due to landfall and which ones do not?

If I'm not mistaken, DSHIPS takes land interaction into account, while SHIPS does not.

[slosh]

Thanks Hurrilurker