ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Is the following statement somewhat realistic?
Humberto could begin to rapidly intensify tonight or tomorrow.

It's in the realm of possibility. If it stacks up overnight it has a very good chance to RI.

[hurricanes1234]

Is the following statement somewhat realistic?
Humberto could begin to rapidly intensify tonight or tomorrow.

It's in the realm of possibility. If it stacks up overnight it has a very good chance to RI.

This storm is probably saying to its previous siblings, which have come this way in 2013,“What was really wrong with them?”

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

Flagged 50kt+ winds

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

NHC will likely go 50kt because of the displaced center, but the low bias of ASCAT would suggest 55 knot maximum sustained winds.

[cycloneye]

Moving West to Westsouthwest? Or is only an ilusion on my part? Saved loop.

[SouthDadeFish]

Although ASCAT found stronger winds, center is more elongated... Perhaps getting pulled by the deeper convection? Maybe it will try and relocate a little bit more to the WSW.

[hurricanes1234]

No, it's not an illusion, I am seeing it as well. Will a more southerly track result in more strengthening?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galaxy401]

Moving West to Westsouthwest? Or is only an ilusion on my part? Saved loop.

I think it's just the convection moving southwest of the center. A recent microwave pass did show the convection southwest of the center compared to just west of it.

[hurricaneCW]

Moving West to Westsouthwest? Or is only an ilusion on my part? Saved loop.

I think it's just the convection moving southwest of the center. A recent microwave pass did show the convection southwest of the center compared to just west of it.

The center could very well relocate closer to the deep convection, so a SW relocation wouldn't surprise me. In fact it's very common in developing tropical systems so long as the shear isn't too overpowering. A relocation further south would give it more time in a favorable environment so the intensity could be a lot higher than forecast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Moving West to Westsouthwest? Or is only an ilusion on my part? Saved loop.

I think it's just the convection moving southwest of the center. A recent microwave pass did show the convection southwest of the center compared to just west of it.

The center could very well relocate closer to the deep convection, so a SW relocation wouldn't surprise me. In fact it's very common in developing tropical systems so long as the shear isn't too overpowering. A relocation further south would give it more time in a favorable environment so the intensity could be a lot higher than forecast.

What would a SW relocation mean as far as future track of the storm?

[gatorcane]

No sign of a turn at all yet. In fact looks more WSW but of course the shear is helping create that illusion. It should have been moving WNW already according to the models...should start to turn tomorrow based on the model guidance:

[Sanibel]

It might stumble if it suddenly gulps the dry air to its north.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

CIMSS-ADT says the center is becoming increasingly embedded within the central dense overcast. Final T# up to T3.0/45kt; raw up to T3.2.

[ozonepete]

CIMSS-ADT says the center is becoming increasingly embedded within the central dense overcast. Final T# up to T3.0/45kt; raw up to T3.2.

Yup. Slowly but surely the center is getting under the convection and vice versa (convection building over the center.) The trend is for strengthening as the last of the significant shear drops off.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Thanks, T13. So all of our data agree on the center location. It is gradually getting under the convection as forecast. With the very low shear ahead of it and dry air remaining north of it until Thursday this has very good conditions for strengthening.

Yep. I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of rapid intensification once an inner core becomes established either. The GFS seems to indicate this.

Here's mid-level dry air from CIMSS. So far none being ingested since it is hundreds of miles to the north and is moving westward rather than southward.

Makes sense...the storm is embedded within a large and deep moisture bubble. Relative humidity values as analyzed by SHIPS are above 75%. Dry air certainly not an issue.

But it is supposed to be making that sharp north turn which looks to be where the bulk of this mid-level dry air is?

[ozonepete]

But it is supposed to be making that sharp north turn which looks to be where the bulk of this mid-level dry air is?

It will take another 48 hours to get where the dry air is. That's a lot of time to ramp up.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 25.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Read 11 PM Discussion here

[CrazyC83]

I saw an unflagged 50+ barb there. I would go 55 kt based on that...

[hurricanes1234]

The NHC is forecasting a Category 2!

[ozonepete]

Regardless it only has 14 mph more in wind speed to reach hurricane. Hard to believe it won't before tomorrow night.