Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ConvergenceZone]

Heading to the peak, it appears that we should beat long term average in number of named storms. We would need only 5, and that well could happen by the end of the month or early October. While some late season hurricanes should form, I don't think we will get to 7 or 8. I also think ACE will surge, though I don't think it will approach numbers in the mid 100s that some called for. Only way that happens now is with a couple of weeks worth of ACE hogging energy (highly highly unlikely).

Yea, I have a hard time with the numbers meaning anything though. For example, you can have 20 tropical depressions forming, but it would be less than impressive due to the fact that they were only depressions, even though there were 20 of them...... I think the main argument here has been how difficult it's been for the storms to develop beyond the depression/weak storm phase....Even here going into the middle of September they are still struggling to develop.... I guess we will find out soon enough.....

[Hurricane_Luis]

great tweet from JB today. right now on sept08 there isnt a single tropical storm anywhere on earth. tropics are truly dead.

That's Interesting. But I reckon that happens quite a lot though.

[RL3AO]

great tweet from JB today. right now on sept08 there isnt a single tropical storm anywhere on earth. tropics are truly dead.

That's Interesting. But I reckon that happens quite a lot though.

Not in early September.

[psyclone]

great tweet from JB today. right now on sept08 there isnt a single tropical storm anywhere on earth. tropics are truly dead.

That's Interesting. But I reckon that happens quite a lot though.

This can't happen quite a lot, at least at this time of year. History shows a 90% likelihood of a named storm in that atlantic basin on sept 10 (that says nothing of the whole planet) so this is a remarkable stat. and since sept 10 is right around the corner, we'd better get a named storm soon in the atlantic or this sept 10 will sit among an elite set of historical losers.

[Steve]

Hey Zone. You make a very valid point. Numbers aren't everything. They do count, but they only tell part of the story. Very few tropical storms have impacts that compete with hurricanes, but we occasionally get that Allison (2 Ls I think) type storm. So far, flooding (with some exceptions in NE FL/S GA) and death (exceptions for a few flash flood deaths in Veracruz State and in rip currents in the NC Gulf) have been minimal. But like you said, due to difficulties with anything deepening once it got going, we are at zero hurricanes. My overall points on the remainder of the season right now, had I been clearer, are 1) I think we will beat long term averages in number of named storms, 2) I think we will be below average for number of hurricanes and probably IH storms, 3) I think we will be below long term averages for ACE although I think it will go up substantially from where it is now, and 4) there should be several more impacts to the islands and North America at large. Hope that was a little clearer of an explanation.

Disclaimer: this post is NOT official and represents only a summary of what I think heading into the peak.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That makes sense Steve. Anyway what are you doing posting, you should be at the game

[WeatherGuesser]

What if it's not a slower than expected season, but just a late starting season?

Spring was late.

Summer was late.

Where I am, the first two weeks of September are on track to be hotter than either July or August.

Could we have TCs in December and January instead of June and July? Wouldn't be completely unheard of.

[CrazyC83]

What if it's not a slower than expected season, but just a late starting season?

Spring was late.

Summer was late.

Where I am, the first two weeks of September are on track to be hotter than either July or August.

Could we have TCs in December and January instead of June and July? Wouldn't be completely unheard of.

If that is the case, November might have the strongest storm of the season if September this year = July most years.

[TheStormExpert]

What if it's not a slower than expected season, but just a late starting season?

Spring was late.

Summer was late.

Where I am, the first two weeks of September are on track to be hotter than either July or August.

Could we have TCs in December and January instead of June and July? Wouldn't be completely unheard of.

If that is the case, November might have the strongest storm of the season if September this year = July most years.

Just to add to this Winter was late too, especially here in the FL Peninsula. March was cooler than Dec.-Feb. combined!

[galaxy401]

What if it's not a slower than expected season, but just a late starting season?

Spring was late.

Summer was late.

Where I am, the first two weeks of September are on track to be hotter than either July or August.

Could we have TCs in December and January instead of June and July? Wouldn't be completely unheard of.

If that is the case, November might have the strongest storm of the season if September this year = July most years.

Just to add to this Winter was late too, especially here in the FL Peninsula. March was cooler than Dec.-Feb. combined!

Possibly. The weather here seems to be one month late. March was cold and it didn't feel like summer until July.

[CrazyC83]

It won't happen in 2013, but has there ever been a year with zero activity at all in September?

[HURAKAN]

about 57 hours from the record

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Going to be close. Think TD 9 might try its hardest to keep the streak alive but just have a gut feeling it will be just a little to late and the record will fall this week.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi says anyone following leon lett spiked the ball too soon. hurricane season isnt over yet.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h

The spiking of the ball at halftime of hurricane season may come back to Leon Lett people. Lets not get too cocky, pattern getting active

[Hurricane_Luis]

https://sphotos-a-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/1238110_612440472111747_1072577675_n.jpg

about 57 hours from the record

What time did Gustav become a hurricane?

[AJC3]

https://sphotos-a-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/1238110_612440472111747_1072577675_n.jpg

about 57 hours from the record

What time did Gustav become a hurricane?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002gustav.shtml

BT has:
11 / 0600 36.8 73.0 977 60 Tropical Storm
11 / 1200 38.0 70.8 971 70 Hurricane

so I would guess around 0900 UTC (500 AM EDT)

[AJC3]

https://sphotos-a-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/1238110_612440472111747_1072577675_n.jpg

about 57 hours from the record

What time did Gustav become a hurricane?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002gustav.shtml

BT has:
11 / 0600 36.8 73.0 977 60 Tropical Storm
11 / 1200 38.0 70.8 971 70 Hurricane

so I would guess around 0900 UTC (500 AM EDT)

[Hurricane_Luis]

https://sphotos-a-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/1238110_612440472111747_1072577675_n.jpg

about 57 hours from the record

What time did Gustav become a hurricane?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002gustav.shtml

BT has:
11 / 0600 36.8 73.0 977 60 Tropical Storm
11 / 1200 38.0 70.8 971 70 Hurricane

so I would guess around 0900 UTC (500 AM EDT)

Thanks. Countdown has begun (Providing humberto doesn't Rapidly strengthen)
By the way, you posted that twice.

[WeatherGuesser]

What are we, somewhere around 40 hours now and ticking .........

[Extratropical94]

The report says [...]Gustav became the 2002 season's first hurricane just before 1200 UTC[...]

So we have 39 hours left.

Timer
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/ge ... +Hurricane