ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I will be very very surprised if this is not our first hurricane. Its a rapidly organizing system.

[hurricanes1234]

I think it'll be a hurricane sometime tomorrow, it's rapidly organizing. It's ok to have doubts given how the season has gone but you can't tell me this storm won't become a hurricane based on what it's been doing and how well modeled it was.

Exactly, and you can see some kind of difference between this system and previous ones. No system in this area thus far in 2013 has started off as rapidly and well-organised as this, so a hurricane further out is definitely a possibility.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

They may need at least a Hurricane Watch for the Cape Verde islands if that is the case. Can't remember ever seeing that...

[Hammy]

It is another case of looking better on satellite than it actually is. Center is east off all the deep convection, and there is no sign of it wrapping back around under strong easterly shear. Like the rest of the storms this season, there is a well defined MLC but the surface remains disorganized.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

It is another case of looking better on satellite than it actually is. Center is east off all the deep convection, and there is no sign of it wrapping back around under strong easterly shear. Like the rest of the storms this season, there is a well defined MLC but the surface remains disorganized.

How much east of the convection is it?

[Hammy]

It is another case of looking better on satellite than it actually is. Center is east off all the deep convection, and there is no sign of it wrapping back around under strong easterly shear. Like the rest of the storms this season, there is a well defined MLC but the surface remains disorganized.

How much east of the convection is it?

about 13N/20W at the time of this image http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/ATL/91L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20130908.1745.goes13.x.vis1km_high.91LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-131N-190W.100pc.jpg

[hurricanes1234]

I'm now seeing it. It is pretty far east. How much shear is that, 20 knots? Again, 2013...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

I'm now seeing it. It is pretty far east. How much shear is that, 20 knots? Again, 2013...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

map doesn't quite go all the way east but about 20kts looks like that's about right
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Easterly shear for a disturbance is not unexpected; in fact, it's to be expected.

2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PRAIA, CAPE VERDE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OVSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLOSED CIRCULATION IS PRESENT. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AS THE
FEATURE MOVES INTO AN AREA OF LOWER WIND SHEAR.

No reason to suggest this system won't gradually -- if not rapidly -- organize and become the season's first hurricane over the coming days.

[Nate-Gillson]

I will be very very surprised if this is not our first hurricane. Its a rapidly organizing system.

Houston, we have a problem.

Yeah, this thing looks WAAY too good to be just an invest. >_>

[Chris_in_Tampa]

map doesn't quite go all the way east but about 20kts looks like that's about right

Deep-Layer Wind Shear - East Atlantic:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

24hr Shear Tendency - East Atlantic:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

To get there in the future, visit:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

On the map under "Regional Real-Time Products", hover over the green background over "East Atlantic/Africa". Then click "Winds & Analyses". Then in the menu at the top you can choose "Wind Shear" or "Shear Tendency".

[HurricaneDREW92]

80MPH

[cycloneye]

Forecast to become the first hurricane of 2013 season.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

[Nate-Gillson]

Adv is out. It's a fish zzzzzzz.

[cycloneye]

Adv is out. It's a fish zzzzzzz.

It doesn't matter as it will be the first hurricane to track no matter where it goes.

[Nate-Gillson]

Adv is out. It's a fish zzzzzzz.

It doesn't matter as it will be the first hurricane to track no matter where it goes.

I know. Just wanted to say that it's a fish.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Adv is out. It's a fish zzzzzzz.

You never know. It's 2013

[RL3AO]

Adv is out. It's a fish zzzzzzz.

It doesn't matter as it will be the first hurricane to track no matter where it goes.

I know. Just wanted to say that it's a fish.

Cape Verde says hi...

[Nate-Gillson]

Cape Verde says hi...

Whoops! Forgot about those islands. xD Which means I'm wrong.

[WeatherGuesser]

Just hope it holds off until Thursday.