Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ROCK]

Texas ridge didnt block IKE...

[ninel conde]

Texas ridge did block IKE...

US landfalls are way down the last 5 years, especially when you consider this is supposed to be the active period, like 40's and 50's thru 1964. just just a fact.

[MGC]

Texas ridge didn't block Isacc either. It is rather remarkable that there has not been a major hurricane landfall in the US since Wilma in 2005. The past two seasons have witnessed very unfavorable conditions in the MDR. I still think there could be a burst of activity late September and early October. The MJO changing to a favorable phase has done little. IMO, the MJO is way over rated in aiding TC genesis......MGC

[Sanibel]

Something's got to give. That deep IR with Gabrielle shows there's plenty of energy there to tap.


Probably a Caribbean system that forms and moves north.

[Steve H.]

There is so much heat energy in the basin that something has to pop. I think (IMO) that we will see a monster before the season is done.

[Hurricaneman]

There is so much heat energy in the basin that something has to pop. I think (IMO) that we will see a monster before the season is done.

As has been said before all it takes is one major hurricane to make a season historic, look at 1992 for example. 1992 only had 1 major hurricane and it completely destroyed the southern suburbs of Miami.

[ConvergenceZone]

There is so much heat energy in the basin that something has to pop. I think (IMO) that we will see a monster before the season is done.

As has been said before all it takes is one major hurricane to make a season historic, look at 1992 for example. 1992 only had 1 major hurricane and it completely destroyed the southern suburbs of Miami.

Yep, totally agree there, although I think we can all finally agree now that in all likelihood the numbers are going to be significantly lower than what was forecast.
That's not to say that there couldn't be a bunch of weak storms or depressions popping up, but I think we just have to admit that the conditions just aren't there this year for lots of sudden development.

disclaimer: this is only my opinion based only on many years of watching the tropics

[ninel conde]

instability back above normal.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

[TheStormExpert]

According to this graphic Wind Shear in the Tropical Atlantic (MDR) is about normal.



Caribbean Wind Shear is below normal to well below normal.



GoM Wind Shear is below normal.



East Coast Wind Shear is about normal.



And finally Subtropical Atlantic Wind Shear is about normal.

[TheStormExpert]

instability back above normal.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

The Caribbean and East Coast are the only two areas in the N. Atlantic that have below normal instability at the moment.

[Cyclenall]

:darrow: According to this graphic Wind Shear in the Tropical Atlantic (MDR) is about normal.

Its good that you posted those, I wonder what CrazyC83 thinks of this since he exclaimed the Atlantic had just "a wall of shear."

Why is it that it seems in this thread the same information is repeated over and over again non-stop? "It only takes one" must be a record for one thread alone. More stunningly, the same users post the same thing twice within a week or so.

Coming back to those 5 stats I was tracking here, today marks yet another insanely pathetic milestone that if was told to me years ago, I'd never believe it. The main one I'm interested in is the no major hurricanes so far in the western hemisphere or Epac and Atlantic for all intents and purposes. I started tracking this near late July and I'm shocked its held up to now but a little part of me could see this coming. The current record that I know of for the longest without a major for both basins is 1981 at Sept.3 for the TC formation and Sept.7 for when Hurricane Floyd became a major in the Atlantic. Today is September 7th so because Floyd became a major at 00z, we already beat 1981 for the latest forming major hurricane in both basins! Also remember 1977 didn't even have this, 1977 is actually better than 1981. Now we're truly in uncharted territory with this stat, since reliable Epac records only go back to 1971 so in a general sense we've beaten the modern record today, hooray! If we bring all Epac records into the fold which goes back to 1949, the last year to have no majors in either basin was 1968 where no majors occurred in both basins for the whole year. The Epac records look shoddy here but I wonder how certain it is that a major did not form since they likely would have caught it, the categories and TS's are all set at the same value so the intensity values are not accurate. Regardless, it appears the best we can do now is tie 1968 as I think a major would have been recorded but I can't say for sure. We have vastly more data-sets and instruments today than back in 68 so we can gather never before seen condition sets that brought about this horrid absence of 100 knot hurricanes. In case anyone is getting the idea that we're tied with 1968 for overall northern hemisphere activity (lack of major 100 knot TCs) think again, looking at the 1968 Wpac typhoon season blows our current one to hell and back again. The Wpac already had 6 100 knot+ typhoons with two of those being CAT5s. We're only at 2 100 knot+ typhoons that got to CAT4. Another indicator we're in completely historical waters now and 2013 is a year likely unique in tropical cyclone records. This could mean we see something occur during the next part of 2013 that has never been recorded before and I'm curious to see if something extraordinary that does not fall in the quiet category, occurs later on.

No hurricanes in this Atlantic: This is the one everyone is focusing on right now, including the NWS and TWC. There are a few records depending on how accurate you want to be including the modern one (goes back to 1944). We are just days away from breaking the modern record, in a season that was suppose to be way above average in every way during a neutral year. The magic date for this is September 11 at 12z. I don't have the other dates if you include the whole data-set for the Atlantic but I think it was either October 5 or never. That was back when tropical cyclones were easily missed so its not really something to go on.

ACE Atlantic: Since 1950, we're about to enter record low territory. Again, since this season was suppose to be very active and is a non-El-Nino, this is insane. I think we're around 8.5 or 9 but we're competing with the strongest El-Nino years at this point. The magic number is 18 set back in 1983 so if we're below that by the end, its a record. I wouldn't be surprised if we've already dropped below the 20% mark for ACE. The ACE for the rest of the basins are also very low and taking an average of all of them would be interesting to see and compare.

No Majors in just the Atlantic: There hasn't been a year in the Atlantic without one since 1994, an El-Nino year and during the last gasp of the -AMO. This isn't that insane of a stat but considering the setup, if we go the rest of the year without one it will be historic and unheard of. On a side note, we haven't seen a CAT4 since Hurricane Ophelia in 2011 on October 2 at 00z.

No Major Hurricane Landfalls on the US mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 to date: Yep, this one is definitely still going lol.

Here is the order in which various stats are from most ridiculous to least corresponding to this season: No Hurricanes in the Atlantic, ACE Atlantic, No Major Hurricanes in either the Epac or Atlantic, No Majors in just the Atlantic, and No Major Hurricane Landfalls on the US mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 to date. I'll check again September 2 to see where these stats stand.

[Ntxw]

Atlantic has fallen to 19% of normal ACE and we still probably have not bottomed out yet.

[HURAKAN]

Atlantic has fallen to 19% of normal ACE and we still probably have not bottomed out yet.

do you have a link for the ACE percentage?

[Ntxw]

do you have a link for the ACE percentage?

There's no link that I know of . I use Dr Ryan Maue's page for ACE count and average and just do the simple math for it. I try to update ACE/percentage for every basin in the NHEM from that page to the ACE thread we have every Monday.

/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115140&start=20

[cycloneye]

More analysis at hyperlink below by the experts Dr Jeff Masters and Phil Klotzbach. What Dr Masters mentions about the Brazil factor is interesting.

The experts discuss about why the 2013 Atlantic season is a record breaking dud one

[Hurricaneman]

More analysis at hyperlink below by the experts Dr Jeff Masters and Phil Klotzbach. What Dr Masters mentions about the Brazil factor is interesting.

The experts discuss about why the 2013 Atlantic season is a record breaking dud one

Maybe South American drought may have to be implemented as a forecast tool in the future

[tolakram]

I can't believe that would bring down global activity, though.

[psyclone]

remember when the NHC famously said the 2005 hurricane season has no interest in climatology (I think this was july of that year...perhaps in a dennis or Emily advisory)? Well I suppose the same thing is true (just in reverse) of the 2013 season. I remind folks that the latter half of sept through October is historically the most dangerous time for the Florida peninsula but with conditions so pin drop quiet thus far no one cares and frankly I agree with them. should conditions change there's ample time to do what's needed but until then...there's just no trouble in paradise.

[SFLcane]

The MDR has been too dry; also, systems coming off of Africa have come off at too high of a latitude (i.e., north of 16N where the air is even drier and westerly shear is strong) or too low of a latitude (i.e., south of 12N where easterly shear is strong). The atmosphere has only been moist enough to support persistent convection in the southwestern GulfMex. It's that simple.

Unfortunately, we will have hurricanes before the season ends because the favorable conditions in the GulfMex/Bay of Campeche will gradually shift eastward into the Caribbean Sea by October.

[Ntxw]

The MDR has been too dry; also, systems coming off of Africa have come off at too high of a latitude (i.e., north of 16N where the air is even drier and westerly shear is strong) or too low of a latitude (i.e., south of 12N where easterly shear is strong). The atmosphere has only been moist enough to support persistent convection in the southwestern GulfMex. It's that simple.

Those are all good reasons but I don't think it's that simple. For just the Atlantic itself it may be contributing and making it the worst basin of all between the big 3 but as Tolakram said there is a problem globally that those things doesn't explain.