18Z GFS Better Initilization

[MWatkins]

So far the 18Z GFS looks like it was better initialized...Isabel through 72 hours is faster and to the north of the previous track...still too weak in the model though.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078s.gif

MW

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

MWatkins.....What chance to we have of being hit here in S.C......your opinion only.....Percentage wise.....0%-100%??

[hurricanedude]

the further north, the better chance of EAST COAST hit and less a THREAT to GOM.....still Miami Beach to Va Beach need to watch this!!

[wow]

well, the GFS is already further north compared to its last run. not looking good for the Southeast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

...also develops another major hurricane in the Atl

[windsurfer]

I see your map and don't understand it. I'm in Houston, please explain what I'm seeing as it relates to me.

[floydchaser]

That's a heck of a ridge the 18z GFS is pumping up over the East!

[wow]

That's a heck of a ridge the 18z GFS is pumping up over the East!

A little TOO strong, IMO. That setup would push Isabel into S FL and into the GOM.

[MWatkins]

The GFS is faster with the approach now (7 days from now instead of 10)...but guess what is sitting just off the coast at t+174

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_174s.gif

And on the coast 1 day later.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_192s.gif

MW

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

That is truly scary for Florida!!

[Stormsfury]

No ... the 18z GFS is indicating a potential stalling of Isabel over the Bahamas and Between SE FL and the Bahamas.. IMO, the wedging scenario from the North Atlantic High is plausible down the east of the Appalachains ... Looking at the Loop (run is only out to 174 hours), it follows strongly the NHC forecasted track with a WNW component with another turn back to the west (and a LOT like Andrew in 1992) ...

I will post the 18z GFS animated loop when it's completed...

SF

[bayouwxman]

Windsurfer...

The links that wow posted are 500 millibar maps. 500 millibars is approximately 18,000 feet up and this level of the atmosphere is important in steering major weather systems.

The maps don't tell you a whole lot about Houston in relation to Isabel because it's just too soon in the period. The maps are forecasts for Monday and show a general steering pattern that would probably keep Isabel moving west through Monday.

However, the maps also show us a "trough" and associated cold front that is forecast to push through your neck of the woods around that time. That trough could possibly have an influence on Isabel's future...too soon to tell.

Hope that helps...

[Tommedic]

Mike.. hasn't each run seemed to get a little further north and historically wouldn't that mean after about 3-4 days there could be an exponential increase in Northerly position based on new runs each day? Just a question.

Also noted that TWC now telling SE Coast they are now at risk..

[windsurfer]

Thanks. That helps me understand that a little better. I'm learning.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes the 18Z GFS and todays EURO point to a Florida landfall. Long week ahead:):)