Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WeatherEmperor]

Tweet from Local NWS Office in Miami, FL:

@NWSMiami: 2001: 1st Atlantic #hurricane Erin on 9/9, but saw 9 hurricanes, including 4 majors! Way too early to write this season off! #flwx
(9/5/13 @7:21pm)

I seriously don't care what some of the statistics may say on similar seasons with the same situation, I got a gut feeling that this season is just going to be as worthless and pathetic from here on out just like it has been so far. Forecasters and meteorologists IMO should be looking into why this season is behaving the way it is and stop saying there is still a chance it could end up as active as predicted, cause so far it's not looking like that is going to happen and it would be a miracle if it does, especially for some of us who like to track actual well organized storms. This season will most likely be one of those seasons that forecasters that make predictions will need to research into to discover why even though there were several strong factors pointing towards an possibly active season, there still must have been a thing or two missing that led to these pathetic short lived storms.

So instead of manning up and admitting the forecast very well could be a massive bust like Phil klotzbach did, which I greatly commend him for doing, they have to go all the way back to '01 to make a case for not writing the season off.

+1 on this big time. Klotzbach was the first to admit that people just dont know as much about tropical cyclones as people think they do. Why cant more people come out and just admit that they are human and there is still much to learn in tropical meteorology? Instead, they resort to the archives and pull up hurricane seasons from the past and say "see it happened in this season so it can happen in this season" or something along those lines. Even worse, some people say that October could somehow produce a monster storm that could change the hurricane season and cause havoc. Im trying to understand what about this hurricane season so far makes them believe this could happen? What factors or conditions we have seen so far would make this possible? Why would conditions all of a sudden change from now into Oct/Nov? The thing is, there is no momentum for tropical cyclones to form right now. Just like sports teams use momentum to get on a roll, so would mother nature. There is no momentum in the Atlantic basin right now. Conditions are not favorable with dry air, shear, etc.

Having said all that, nobody should EVER say that the season is over. It is definitely possible to have a late season monster like a Wilma or a Mitch. What I am saying is that this hurricane season so far ( which was predicted to be very active with very high risk for the US coast for strikes...and oh btw the "lid" was supposed to have come off by now...but still hasnt) hasnt given me ANY reason to believe that all of a sudden come Oct or Nov or whatever month and time, the Atlantic is just going to do a complete 180 and blow up a monster hurricane to cause massive destruction potentially. Despite all the favorable factors that showed it would be active by now, still there is little going on. Listen, a monster hurricane still can happen...its just that the odds are against it big time...given what we are seeing. 2013 just has a mind of its own...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[hurricaneCW]

Now I'm not sure if all the forecasters and agencies are going to feel humbled or embarrassed if the season never turns around. It would definitely be embarrassing knowing how far back we still are with making forecasts. The way the hurricane season forecasts are created or formulated may have to be done completely differently.

It's a good learning experience and good for research, so that might help with future predictions. Now perhaps they'll take dry air into account much more than usual and the different layers measuring the saturation and RH of the air mass.

I think shear and especially dry air should be studied a lot more closely with less emphasis placed on having above normal SST's because warm waters are useless if the environment is unfavorable for storms to form and maintain themselves.

It seems that every time no El Niño is forecast that forecasters go above normal for the season since Atlantic SST anomalies are usually always a bit above normal to the point where the above normal SST's are a constant.

[ninel conde]

lets never forget that a dominant east coast trof pattern will limit development in the gom/west carib which limits numbers and landfalls. when i make a preseason forecast thats the first thing i look at.

[ninel conde]

kudos also to JB for admitting his forecast was an unmitagated disaster. i think ther is a herd mentality with the pros. when the first major organization comes out with an active forecast then all the others will start seeing only positive factors and stop looking for negative ones. jb's march nonsense about how the 400 mb pattern was the reason this season would be severe ended up nonsense.

not that anyone will care, but right now i see no reason to conclude the texas ridge will not be dominant again next season which will mean the 5th year of a wnw flow well into the west atlantic limiting landfalls and cutting off the gom/west carib. the ony way it will be dislodged is for a strong el nino to form, which would also kill off cane season.

[tolakram]

kudos also to JB for admitting his forecast was an unmitagated disaster. i think ther is a herd mentality with the pros. when the first major organization comes out with an active forecast then all the others will start seeing only positive factors and stop looking for negative ones. jb's march nonsense about how the 400 mb pattern was the reason this season would be severe ended up nonsense.

not that anyone will care, but right now i see no reason to conclude the texas ridge will not be dominant again next season which will mean the 5th year of a wnw flow well into the west atlantic limiting landfalls and cutting off the gom/west carib. the ony way it will be dislodged is for a strong el nino to form, which would also kill off cane season.

How in the world can you make anything but an uneducated random guess about conditions next season?

Also, did I miss JB throwing in the towel on this season?

[ninel conde]

kudos also to JB for admitting his forecast was an unmitagated disaster. i think ther is a herd mentality with the pros. when the first major organization comes out with an active forecast then all the others will start seeing only positive factors and stop looking for negative ones. jb's march nonsense about how the 400 mb pattern was the reason this season would be severe ended up nonsense.

not that anyone will care, but right now i see no reason to conclude the texas ridge will not be dominant again next season which will mean the 5th year of a wnw flow well into the west atlantic limiting landfalls and cutting off the gom/west carib. the ony way it will be dislodged is for a strong el nino to form, which would also kill off cane season.

How in the world can you make anything but an uneducated random guess about conditions next season?

Also, did I miss JB throwing in the towel on this season?

here he admits he way overforecasted ACE.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4 Sep

If something is going to beat me ( ACE way overforecasted this year) I am going to find out why and not let it beat me again

the texas ridge has been locked in for years now. i have seen some forecasts for an elnino to form and indeed looks possible for next season. if its strong enough it could replace the texas ridge.

[ninel conde]

i see TWC is also on a countdown to the record.

[Ntxw]

Anything about next season is educated guessing . I think an El Nino would be beneficial. We can start moistening up the Pacific which would then spread across the globe. Sure the Atlantic might suffer for one more year but there is usually a couple of quality storms even during the strongest El Ninos. Tropics have been stagnant with Ninas and cold neutrals, weather happens when there is a change in air mass, time to add some atmospheric heat down there!

[NDG]

This is pathetic, just 4 days from the peak of the season and with barely 3 lemons that none look promising to develop within 5 days. The MJO has not helped much so far.

[WeatherGuesser]

This is pathetic, just 4 days ....

Six days (or less) for some sort of record. I'm all for that.

[blp]

Update: here is our map so far this season.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2013/track.gif

[tolakram]

It might be fun to review some of the text products from 1999 forward at this page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#monthly

More than just lines on a map you can read descriptions of some of the past storms and seasons. Lots of encounters with shear, poor conditions, degeneration, regeneration, etc. Major hurricanes developing from "season ending" troughs ... you get the idea. I wonder what conversation here would be like in 2002, the last season with a really late hurricane. Hopefully the idea that anything close to 2005 will probably not happen in our lifetimes is starting to sink in. Explanations as to why this season has been so slow when forecast to be above normal are all over the place right now. A few days ago Africa was dead, wave train was dead. Now the wave train is active but storms are drying up. Cold Indian Ocean, globally low tropical activity, dry air, low instability, MJO incoherence, etc, etc.

We all get into some kind of group think when discussing the season. 5 days ago there was a chance, a tropical storm forms and dissipates quickly and boom, the season is over for some of us. I'm right there with you, don't get me wrong. In reality, nothing much has changed in 5 days except a low pressure area qualified for identification using our currently accepted scheme, got a name, and poofed.

I fully expect this season to end with what is considered above normal activity for the more recent Atlantic Hurricane seasons. I'll gladly eat crow if it ends up being a complete dud, and lives are saved.

Average (1981–2010) 12.1 6.4 2.7

We are at 7, 0, 0

My poll numbers are 16/9/3 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=114862

I think these are wrong, since every storm from here on out must be a hurricane, but I still like 16 storms.

I'll go with 16/6/2

I still think there's a chance for something silly like 20/6/2 simply because, like it or not, a lot of storms that might not have developed, or more likely might not have been seen, are counted these days. Better accuracy IMO. Another reason storm numbers don't mean that much to me.

[andrewsurvivor]

Although the season has turned out quiescent thus far, we still have our riskiest time in many areas as storms born closer to home can get caught up in frontal boundries ala Wilma type storms. I wouldn't call it season cancel or let your guard down yet. We know it just takes one to cause havoc. For now, as much as we all enjoy tracking storms, lets also be thankful there have been no catastrophic events.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue posted an interesting interactive ACE chart on Twitter. Note how rapidly ACE typically ramps up around mid September:

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

[CrazyC83]

Although the season has turned out quiescent thus far, we still have our riskiest time in many areas as storms born closer to home can get caught up in frontal boundries ala Wilma type storms. I wouldn't call it season cancel or let your guard down yet. We know it just takes one to cause havoc. For now, as much as we all enjoy tracking storms, lets also be thankful there have been no catastrophic events.

So true, and the SAL is not normally a concern by then as Cape Verde would be shutting down anyway. I highly doubt CV is going to produce anything this season unless a surprise break occurs.

[ROCK]

what does a Texas ridge have to do with anything pertaining to landfalls? you could just as well say the opposite. doesnt make any sense...IMO

[cycloneye]

Fizzling Gabrielle continues a quiet Hurricane season so far

Another articule about this theme of slow Atlantic activity. Here Dr William Gray talks briefly about this.

“We’ve had seven named storms but they’ve been little, very weak systems, really nothing,” said William Gray, a Colorado State University climatologist who pioneered the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting.

Those pre-season projections have become increasingly accurate but they have missed the mark to date. Gray and colleague Phil Klotzbach had forecast 18 named storms with nine hurricanes and four major storms this year. A host of university and government experts had expected roughly similar numbers and another active season.

“Everybody is pretty well busted,” said Gray, with a chuckle. “The atmosphere is a very difficult thing to predict. You can predict a lot of it but there are some things that happen that defy our best knowledge and this looks like it’s one of those seasons.’’

[NDG]

Very interesting that Dr Gray is starting to admit that his season forecast could very well be a bust.
Back paddling by the the forecasters has started, better late than never.

[Ntxw]

For fun, I decided to look at the CPC super-ensemble product (this being the GFS ensembles) analogs for long range, Sept 12-16 period. This is something I like to use during winter to see what years featured a similar pattern not sure about accuracy regarding tropical season. It's interesting that 2002 is on there, we're looking to tie or break the record possibly. 2008 is the one above average season on this list, 1966 being the near average one and the rest are all dead seasons (in terms of count and ACE.)

So 20% of them were near or above normal seasons, 80% below normal.



Disclaimer: this was just for fun and is subject to high variability, you're looking at a period when guidance is generally clueless and should only be considered for trends. The product also is only offering the pattern at 500mb.

[ninel conde]

what does a Texas ridge have to do with anything pertaining to landfalls? you could just as well say the opposite. doesnt make any sense...IMO

has everything to do with it. a texas ridge means a wnw flow across the east coast which either kills or blocks landfalls. thats pretty self evident. a texas ridge means low pressure over new england. finally a texas ridge, as we have had the last 5 years, to a large extent blocks landfalls north of 25n in the gom. i can say with almost 100% certainty had a west atlantic ridge been dominant the last 5 years several major hurricanes would have landfalled in the US.


joe bastardi continues to offer hope!!

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

360 hour GFS has 4 obvious storms, 2 suspect areas including 1 near se coast pic.twitter.com/iG6apXQCP9