Wave emerging Africa: (Is Invest 91L)

[Hurricaneman]

The model consensus is that this develops into a formidable tropical cyclone within 4 days and may need to be watched for in the Cape Verde region

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

The model consensus is that this develops into a formidable tropical cyclone within 4 days and may need to be watched for in the Cape Verde region

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Any link, models sat pic related to that twave? Thanks.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS recurves this at 40W as a sub 1000mb system at 165hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hyperstorm]

Yep, this is the wave that the GFS has been hinting at development for the last few days.

I feel confident that this system will be the one to end our hurricane drought in the Atlantic with the model showing it near hurricane strength by September 10th.

Interestingly, the GFS keeps it quite significant for at least 10 days.

[supercane4867]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

This is the big one that models have developed?

Could this be the Sandy of the eastern Atlantic? It seems to have strange ideas based on the models (especially GFS). I have never heard of such a large, intense storm east of 30W (certainly not in the satellite era).

[tolakram]

Latest GFS run has it missing Cape Verde to the west, and deepening fast.

[CrazyC83]

Latest GFS run has it missing Cape Verde to the west, and deepening fast.

With that deep trough, that should be getting the attention of the Azores as well...

[TheStormExpert]

Not buying a strong storm forming after all the recent fails out in E. Atlantic.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest GFS model coming in.

Very large and potentially dangerous hurricane Humberto developing very quickly near the Cape Verde islands in 3 days.

The disturbance responsible for this is actually associated with the current explosion over West Africa based on the model trends. I'll tell you...with this HUGE area of thunderstorms gathering, I can definitely see what the GFS is seeing. Rising clouds = low pressure.



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[Hurricaneman]

This is a potential huge hurricane perhaps major hurricane in the making, as far a intense hurricanes near the Cape Verde Islands the only real fit is Fred in 2009, but this has better conditions farther west and as far as modeled size, this could be a 750mi radius type of storm which is completely ridiculous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

This is a potential huge hurricane perhaps major hurricane in the making, as far a intense hurricanes near the Cape Verde Islands the only real fit is Fred in 2009, but this has better conditions farther west and as far as modeled size, this could be a 750mi radius type of storm which is completely ridiculous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

And I'm assuming the steering pattern like with most quickly forming Cape Verde storms if this forms quickly would suggest a BIG OL' FISH!

[TheStormExpert]

Latest GFS model coming in.

Very large and potentially dangerous hurricane Humberto developing very quickly near the Cape Verde islands in 3 days.

The disturbance responsible for this is actually associated with the current explosion over West Africa based on the model trends. I'll tell you...with this HUGE area of thunderstorms gathering, I can definitely see what the GFS is seeing. Rising clouds = low pressure.



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WOAH! Jut 24-48hrs. ago Africa looked liked a dried up desert with no convection to be found. This IMO seems to be the strongest convection so far this season with any TW over W. Africa.

[TheStormExpert]

Current SAL Map Shows a surge of SAL diving SW into the Central MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

Current Mid-Level Water Vapor shows enough dry air around to cause issues, the question is will it be enough to inhibit development?



Also here is the Current Upper-Level Water Vapor too.

[TheStormExpert]

Now being mentioned on the 8pm TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I won't get excited until I see it. Most invests and storms in the eastern Atlantic this year have poofed for one reason or another.

[CrazyC83]

This is a potential huge hurricane perhaps major hurricane in the making, as far a intense hurricanes near the Cape Verde Islands the only real fit is Fred in 2009, but this has better conditions farther west and as far as modeled size, this could be a 750mi radius type of storm which is completely ridiculous

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

And I'm assuming the steering pattern like with most quickly forming Cape Verde storms if this forms quickly would suggest a BIG OL' FISH!

Fish? There would be land in the way - Cape Verde would see one of their worst storms ever if the worse case models become reality, and don't forget islands like the Azores...

[hurricanes1234]

What strength are these runs showing?

[Hurricaneman]

What strength are these runs showing?

The GFS has been showing a hurricane since its runs this weekend so it may not be out of the realm of possibility that this becomes a hurricane sometime in the next 5 to 7 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products