(5PM EDT) Another great Stacy Disc...

[Scott_inVA]

snip...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISABEL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON AS EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -75C AND COLDER...WHILE THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AVERAGE OUT TO T6.5...OR 127 KT...WITH A PEAK T-NUMBER OF 7.1...OR 143 KT...AT 1815Z. THE 3-HOUR ODT AVERAGE IS T6.3...OR 122 KT. THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES EASILY JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ISABEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY INDICATES...

Despite Izzy looking a tad squishy this aft, she is a classic Atl mature cane (with a long way to go and not much in the way). Tomorrow, IMO brings the most important RECCO in the Atl since Floyd.

Scott

[Rainband]

WOW!!!! :o

[TampaFl]

Looks like it could reach cat 5 status by Thursday if not sooner. The recon flight can't come soon enough.


Robert

[PTrackerLA]

Those are some cold cloud tops in the IR! Been a long time since I've seen a storm like that.

[wow]

Tomorrow, IMO brings the most important RECCO in the Atl since Floyd.

Scott

Very true. 9/11/03 will be the day we will all remember as the day RECCO first went in to investigate "The Great Isabel"

[Josephine96]

LOL Wow.. That's true.. The question is.. On 1 of our darkest days in history.. will we be also getting ready for another 1 with a potential Cat 5 in the Atlantic.. {gives look of worry}

[Scott_inVA]

WOW!!!! :o

Yep.

I'm also grateful Stewart is in the No-Spin Zone. Several runs I've tracked show little to no vort...amazing for a C 3/C4 TC. Yet the GFS looks like a a vort not worthy of June pulse thunderstorms in Kansas. It's the GFS so we just overlook that :? . Nice to see someone at TPC not on bended knee with every run.

Scott

[ameriwx2003]

Scott . yes important recon indeed. I also noted this tidbit Stacy mentioned about the Models and the GFS 12z run:):)

THE 12Z
GFS MODEL HAS RETURNED TO ITS OLD WAYS AND NOW MAKES A JOG BACK TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N LATITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF ISABEL BY THE MODEL...AND THE
GFS MAINTAINS A PATHETIC LOOKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
CERTAINLY NOTHING REMOTELY RESEMBLING A MAJOR HURRICANE...THROUGH
72 HOURS. THE RESULT IS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF
ISABEL FORCES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL
AND THE UKMET... TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...ALSO HAVE SIMILAR
LOOKING WEAK CIRCULATIONS...THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY THE
12Z NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZES ISABEL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SINCE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
....WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO
THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

[capecodder]

Walt Drag in the Winter from KBOX, and Stacy Stewart at the NHC. Who could ask for anything more?

[capecodder]

Walt Drag in the Winter from KBOX, and Stacy Stewart at the NHC. Who could ask for anything more?