ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[pgoss11]

Just found this about the so called 'Newfoundland Wheel' -

http://www.examiner.com/article/summer-2010-what-are-ocean-temperatures-indicating

Honestly I had never heard that term before today but it is interesting..

[gatorcane]

New Video about 97L by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -antilles/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

He is leaning more with the UKMET/ECMWF which brings the system towards Cuba in 5 days (graphic below).

Mentions alot of rainfall potential for the Caribbean islands including Leewards, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

No change.20%-50%

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CONDUCIVE...THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE
PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE
BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[SFLcane]

Wxman57, i see you on..latest thoughts on invest 97? Might it miss that trof and head back west near the bahamas.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090300, , BEST, 0, 143N, 605W, 25, 1009, LO

[floridasun78]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013090300, , BEST, 0, 143N, 605W, 25, 1009, LO

not weak low

[cycloneye]

Good radar presentation. It appears Low center is between Martinique and Dominica

[NDG]

Good radar presentation. It appears Low center is between Martinique and Dominica

http://oi44.tinypic.com/2mo9yeo.jpg

Pressure readings coincide with the radar loop image, lowest pressures are found in Martinique and Dominica this evening.

[Hammy]

doesn't seem to have quite the well defined rotation this evening, but despite that it looks like convergence is increasing.

[EastCoastlow]

This invest has the most Interesting model scenarios.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

[ozonepete]

Very odd out there. There are clearly two disturbances going on and obviously they can't share energy forever. I really can't say much else, other than that in a case like this you trust the models to reconcile it since they have a lot of "experience" programmed into them now. So the sooner the lagging disturbance dies out the sooner the leading one will intensify.

[floridasun78]

i see few want go up hurr but look like wont be hurr the way going

[cycloneye]

Late night update from the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1039 PM AST MON SEP 2 2013

.UPDATE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE A LITTLE AND
BOOSTED RAIN ON THU A LITTLE. CHANGES OTHERWISE WERE MINOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THE TREND OF THE 18Z GFS
IN BETTER PROGRESSION OF DRY AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS PR/USVI TONIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY 700-400 MB
MOISTURE WHICH IS ERODING THE LEADING SIDE OF THE CONVECTION OVER
LESSER ANTILLES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 00Z TFFR SOUNDING OF 2.52
INCHES THOUGH THE BALLOON MAY HAVE FLOWN THROUGH A THUNDERSTORM
AND PARTS OF THE TEMP/DEW POINT TRACE IS LIKELY BAD DATA. THE AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THIS SYSTEM IS SO SMALL THAT ENTRAINMENT IS
RETARDING ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIR OVER PR WILL RETREAT
TO THE WEST ON TUE AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO DEEPEN AGAIN IN TIME
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PR/USVI. WE COULD HAVE STRONG SUN
TO BEGIN THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...AT
LEAST INTIALLY.

TROPICAL WAVE ESSENTIALLY HAS A DUAL CENTER NOW. ONE OVER GUADELOUPE
AND THE OTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AT 54W. THE EASTERN PART HAS A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF MOISTURE TO DRAW ON...BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THE
TWO WILL LIKELY MERGE SOMEWHERE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF PR. BELIEVE
THE WAVE CENTER NEAR GUADELOUPE WILL PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
PR BUT REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE BIGGER CONCERN REGARDS A
FLOODING THREAT. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE FIRST WAVE
BEING OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THU MORNING WITH A DEEP SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. GFS SHOWS US IN VICINITY OF A TROPICAL
PLUME FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK AFTERWARD. BUT THE TIMING OF FLOODING
RAINS AND LOCATION OF THIS POTENTIAL MOIST FLOW ARE BOTH A BIG
QUESTION. MODELS ALSO HAVEN/T BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE EITHER.

[ozonepete]

Thanks, Luis. That's exactly what I was getting at in my last post. Whether it's a clearly visible, or clean, merge or not, something looks pretty sure to come out of this over the next few days. And so looks like PR should get a lot of heavy rain imho.

[ozonepete]

Also, it looks like Martinique north to Guadeloupe, and all of the islands north of there such as Antigua and St. Martin are going to get some really intense rain tonight and tomorrow. It would be prudent for our friends there to get ready for some possibly serious flooding - not sure if it will happen but you need to be ready just in case.

[Hammy]

seems to finally be consolidating (though I recall saying the same yesterday) but it is certainly looking much better and more concentrated than 24 hours ago.


http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc13/ATL/97L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20130902.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.97LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-140N-607W.100pc.jpg
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc13/ATL/97L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20130903.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.97LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-143N-605W.100pc.jpg

[floridasun78]

seems to finally be consolidating (though I recall saying the same yesterday) but it is certainly looking much better and more concentrated than 24 hours ago.


http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc13/ATL/97L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20130902.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.97LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-140N-607W.100pc.jpg
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc13/ATL/97L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20130903.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.97LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-143N-605W.100pc.jpg

good catch Hammy that interesting

[MGC]

Nice blow up of convection over the island this evening.....MGC

[LaBreeze]

After giving the Bahamas some pretty good showers, shouldn't it move north and then northeastward out to sea? Wondering.

[Fego]

Finally, a step forward.

03/0545 UTC 14.8N 61.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic