ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

:darrow: Looking at the graphic below I see very little mid-level dry air. Could someone explain where the dry air is that they are seeing?

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/6046/dth0.jpg

What happened to this last night had not much to do with dry air as it had to do with lack of convergence, but now it seems to have that and I do expect an uptick of convection tonight due to this but who knows

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

A vigourous spin going on now north of Barbados. Once the thunderstorms start to pop watch out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

[Alyono]

A vigourous spin going on now north of Barbados. Once the thunderstorms start to pop watch out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

hardly shows up on visible

[northjaxpro]

:darrow: Looking at the graphic below I see very little mid-level dry air. Could someone explain where the dry air is that they are seeing?

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/6046/dth0.jpg

You cannot see mid level dry air on WV. It mainly shows upper level WV

TPW products are a better bet

Exactly. Plus. the soundings taken in and around Barbados show dry air from 10,000 to 15,000 ft above present at the mid levels.

[Fego]

Here is a very long loop of 97L through Martinique's radar.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... inique.gif

[Sanibel]

Looks like a spent vortex that will be vaporized by the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

2pm EST NHC TWO:

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

[Sanibel]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

The EC is not a graveyard. One really needs to stop listening to the disproven John Hope Rule

Earlier in the thread I posted the 12 storms that formed in the last 10 years in the EC. That means we average 1.2 storms there a season

More often than not forming storms 'skip' in this area. It is hard to locate their LLC and west winds as the tropical easterlies push them along. When they get to the west Caribbean this phenomenon moderates and they often rebound with a vengance and form. So the "Zone Of Tropical Death" is kind of a joking reference to this and July hostile conditions. I think it is caused by the Tropical easterlies being enhanced by the islands in a funnel-like effect. Of course no one was saying all storms die there. But this year, especially, such a weak wave would surely be vulnerable.

[NDG]

I am really starting to think even though is not shown on any surface maps that 97L has been attached all along to the ITCZ besides been affected by the dry air, I see nothing but west winds (almost on a straight line south of 12-13N) from the coastal areas of northern S.A. all the way east toward the disturbance east of 97L, so it makes sense that not until gains some latitude that it will not do much, the disturbance/TW approaching from the east might do the trick.

[ninel conde]

:darrow: Looking at the graphic below I see very little mid-level dry air. Could someone explain where the dry air is that they are seeing?

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/6046/dth0.jpg

You cannot see mid level dry air on WV. It mainly shows upper level WV

TPW products are a better bet

Exactly. Plus. the soundings taken in and around Barbados show dry air from 10,000 to 15,000 ft above present at the mid levels.

thats the cap greg postel was mentioning. on a positive note phil882, a metro from another board is more confident 97L will develop.

"Convection is starting to recover over 97L.... definitely still having issues with dry air intrusion, but the low-level vortex is markedly better defined. It also hasn't moved in more than 24 hours, which is giving it time for the mid-level center to remain over the low-level vortex and become a more vertically deep disturbance. I'm growing more confident 97L is going to develop, and could be an interesting player down the road beyond Hispaniola if the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are to be believed."

[Sanibel]

There appears to be a center-like feature north of Barbados.

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 14N59W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PART OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

September 02, 2013; 11:10 AM

We are tracking several features across the Atlantic. However, areas of dry air and shear are preventing development

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

[psyclone]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

The EC is not a graveyard. One really needs to stop listening to the disproven John Hope Rule

Earlier in the thread I posted the 12 storms that formed in the last 10 years in the EC. That means we average 1.2 storms there a season

More often than not forming storms 'skip' in this area. It is hard to locate their LLC and west winds as the tropical easterlies push them along. When they get to the west Caribbean this phenomenon moderates and they often rebound with a vengance and form. So the "Zone Of Tropical Death" is kind of a joking reference to this and July hostile conditions. I think it is caused by the Tropical easterlies being enhanced by the islands in a funnel-like effect. Of course no one was saying all storms die there. But this year, especially, such a weak wave would surely be vulnerable.

that is exactly correct. not many storms form in this area and outside of active seasons (active is certainly not an adjective for this season) true cyclogenesis is quite rare in this region. Just take a look at the formation maps...you see a big cluster to the east and the west and a relative dearth of formation points in the eastern Caribbean.. the storms referenced recently may well represent a fluke. One was from 2001 (more than 10 years ago) and two were from the 2003 season (about to drop off that average) and six came from hyperactive seasons. I think a longer term view largely validates Hope's assertions.

[abajan]

There was just a pretty loud clap of thunder. It's overcast and we recently had very heavy rain with winds gusting strongly from the west. (I suspect that the wind direction may have been just a local effect of the nearby cumulonimbus.)

Anyway, I'm shutting down and unplugging this computer to protect it.

[cycloneye]

There was just a pretty loud clap of thunder. It's overcast and we recently had very heavy rain with winds gusting strongly from the west. (I suspect that the wind direction may have been just a local effect of the nearby cumulonimbus.)

Anyway, I'm shutting down and unplugging this computer to protect it.

Stay safe and when is all over come back to report on how are things there.

[cycloneye]

02/1745 UTC 14.0N 59.7W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

[Hurricaneman]

02/1745 UTC 14.0N 59.7W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

sounds correct, and convection is firing near the center which is a sign that the dry air might be giving up

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave C]

There is a long outflow boundry racing eastward around 57 deg when you loop the visable.

[USTropics]

It still has competing areas of vorticity at the low levels , but the most concentrated vorticity should take over near 60W/14N. The mid-level to upper-level vorticity is also starting to consolidate in this area. Decreasing divergence to the north and south should help lessen the sinking dry air that's been a factor, and as noted earlier, convergence has been on the increase.