ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[ROCK]

Is anyone buying the hurricane going into S Fl?

no...without a true center for models to initialize on these are all just for fun. The invest is moving WNW for now and I suspect it will keep moving that way until it deepens. These models want to take it NW right away.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=

The 12z GFS takes the vorticity over the eastern DR and forms a low over the western DR. Seems that a blocking ridge has formed at that point (120 hrs)

[jlauderdal]

Is anyone buying the hurricane going into S Fl?

no, wilma last hit..been hit many times since then by model storms..no worries until we are inside 72 hours on models and nhc tracks

[Alyono]

GFS has a weaker solution than previously. VERY broad low in the Bahamas

we may need to accept an 8-10 storm season if what is being talked about in some circles happens

[Portastorm]

Is anyone buying the hurricane going into S Fl?

no...without a true center for models to initialize on these are all just for fun. The invest is moving WNW for now and I suspect it will keep moving that way until it deepens. These models want to take it NW right away.

I'm totally on board with this idea. I like some of the thoughts out there that this may end up being a Caribbean Cruiser and potentially develop towards the Western Caribbean. The longer 97L struggles to develop vertically, the more prone its direction will be to lower level wind flow.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS has a weaker solution than previously. VERY broad low in the Bahamas

we may need to accept an 8-10 storm season if what is being talked about in some circles happens

Indeed we may have a no hurricane season which would be the first of the satellite era but looking at the intensity models we just have to give 97L some time as this is like a baby growing into a toddler right now and things are coming together but the 12zGFS does make me do a double take

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[blp]

The 12z CMC closes off the vorticity around 54hrs over Puerto Rico. We need to keep track of this because the 00z had it closing off in 48hrs so the continued delay may change the runs. The 12z does look tighter though so I expect a strong system depicted by the CMC on this run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013090212/gem_z850_vort_atl_12.png

[perk]

Is anyone buying the hurricane going into S Fl?

no...without a true center for models to initialize on these are all just for fun. The invest is moving WNW for now and I suspect it will keep moving that way until it deepens. These models want to take it NW right away.

I'm totally on board with this idea. I like some of the thoughts out there that this may end up being a Caribbean Cruiser and potentially develop towards the Western Caribbean. The longer 97L struggles to develop vertically, the more prone its direction will be to lower level wind flow.

Portastorm even though one of our pro-mets is onboard with that NW turn,i'm not so sure that this might not be a GOM threat.

[supercane4867]

Let's play the "guess when CMC will drop the storm" game

[pgoss11]

Talk about a fantasy storm!

[ROCK]

CMC deepens this too fast....but I do give it credit for sniffing out 97L before the other two big boys...

[Riptide]

Lol, this one is destined to develop in some form; peak of the season and good enough model support. Watch this one take off when it leaves the MDR.

[ROCK]

these models will shift west thru out the day and possible tomorrow,IMO.... at least until it deepens. it is so far south now with ample ridging. Case in point the 12Z NAM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

further south below the islands with plenty of ridging....and not developed as the CMC thinks...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1808 UTC MON SEP 2 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130902 1800 130903 0600 130903 1800 130904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 60.0W 14.6N 61.5W 15.3N 63.3W 16.0N 65.3W
BAMD 14.3N 60.0W 14.7N 61.7W 15.2N 63.5W 16.0N 65.5W
BAMM 14.3N 60.0W 14.6N 61.5W 15.1N 63.1W 15.7N 65.0W
LBAR 14.3N 60.0W 14.5N 61.3W 15.2N 63.0W 16.5N 65.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130904 1800 130905 1800 130906 1800 130907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 67.7W 18.9N 72.3W 20.1N 76.3W 20.8N 79.6W
BAMD 17.0N 67.5W 18.9N 71.2W 20.7N 74.1W 22.1N 75.4W
BAMM 16.6N 67.1W 18.2N 71.0W 19.5N 74.5W 20.5N 77.2W
LBAR 18.2N 67.1W 21.5N 71.3W 24.5N 73.7W 27.7N 73.3W
SHIP 55KTS 70KTS 77KTS 79KTS
DSHP 55KTS 70KTS 57KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 60.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 59.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 58.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SFLcane]

18z models sharp recurve now out to sea.

[Blown Away]

18z...Very sharp recurve for this time of year...Wonder if we will see a loop in future runs...

[NDG]

12z Euro continues with splitting the energy in two, on this run it shows the Caribbean energy a little stronger while the northern energy near] the Bahamas not as strong as last night's run.

[Blown Away]

Bumped...

[TheStormExpert]

The models are all garbage IMO until this mess finally develops, if it ever does.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: The models are all garbage IMO until this mess finally develops, if it ever does.

and that is factually wrong