ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 140N, 606W, 30, 1008, LO

[Gustywind]

8 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
21N56W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15N60W TO 13N60W MOVING W TO W-
NW AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 53W-60W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER ELONGATED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

SSD recap for 97L.

01/2345 UTC 14.7N 61.7W TOO WEAK 97L
01/1745 UTC 14.0N 60.6W TOO WEAK 97L
01/1245 UTC 14.2N 60.8W TOO WEAK 97L
01/0545 UTC 13.5N 58.5W TOO WEAK 97L
31/2345 UTC 15.4N 54.9W TOO WEAK 97L
31/1745 UTC 15.1N 54.4W TOO WEAK 97L

[Gustywind]

Monitoring a Tropical Low Near the Lesser Antilles

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
September 01, 2013; 7:16 PM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 1/17323521

A close eye is being kept on a low near the Lesser Antilles, which will face drenching showers and thunderstorms regardless of any tropical development.

Thunderstorm activity increased around the tropical low Sunday morning, a key factor to any potential development. The low is also tracking through water that is more than warm enough to support strengthening.

However, there are other factors working against development.

The thunderstorm activity actually started to diminish some Sunday afternoon as the low ran into dry air across the eastern Caribbean. Also in place is disruptive wind shear to the north and west of the low.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are closely monitoring the low for the possibility that it overcomes these obstacles and organizes into the next tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The low could do so as it tracks westward through the eastern Caribbean over the next few of days.

Regardless of development, drenching and gusty showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread across the Lesser Antilles through Monday. Localized flash flooding could unfold in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

The storminess also threatens to ruin outdoor and vacation plans.

Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms will stretch across the Leeward Islands through midweek with another tropical wave following on the heels of the low.

The wave will also cause shower and thunderstorm activity to increase across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by midweek, but is not expected to develop due to the mountainous terrain of the Caribbean islands and wind shear in its path.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

97L is still trying

My forecast for 97L:

https://sites.google.com/site/macstropi ... twoissue12

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

97L is still trying

My forecast for 97L:

https://sites.google.com/site/macstropi ... twoissue12

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cool what you're doing there

[HurricaneDREW92]

I think convection should start popping 10-11pm.
8am TWO: 50/60%

[cycloneye]

New video by Levi Cowan about 97L.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... this-week/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AJC3]

Here's the 2311 UTC TRMM M/I pass. Ill defined vort center looked a bit east of 60W here.

[Alyono]

I'd personally go 20/40

development, if it occurs, would be about 3 days down the road... once this consolidates

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

New video by Levi Cowan about 97L.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... this-week/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Convection should start popping in the next 2-3 hours. Think TS before Tuesday...but it probably poofs tonite

[gatorcane]

Animated short-wave GIF which shows good cyclonic turning just ESE of Martinique around where BEST TRACK has the low-level center (14.0N, 60.7W).

Structure looks good with great outflow. Now let's see if convection starts blowing up around there as we head towards DMAX later:

[HurricaneDREW92]

Animated short-wave GIF which shows good cyclonic turning just ESE of Martinique around where BEST TRACK has the low-level center (14.0N, 60.7W).

Structure looks good with great outflow. Now let's see if convection starts blowing up around there as we head towards DMAX later:

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/9225/9ed.gif

Now comes the crucial sleep and wake up period

[HURAKAN]

the battle of the percentages ... even in September, disturbances need their time to develop

[floridasun78]

so weaking tonight what i seen lastest sat pic could percentages go down at 2am?

[SeGaBob]

It could but my guess is they hold the percentage steady for 2am unless convection really starts firing...

[HURAKAN]

so weaking tonight what i seen lastest sat pic could percentages go down at 2am?

no because any development is unlikely to happen tomorrow and weakening of the convection is normal when there is no well-defined low-level circulation ... all disturbances pulsate

[Hammy]

so weaking tonight what i seen lastest sat pic could percentages go down at 2am?

Honestly wouldn't surprise me to see the 48 hour % lowered if convection doesn't refire by then, but would probably have to be a longer term trend before they start lowering the 120 hour %'s.

[jinftl]

since development not expected in short term, probably remain the same. pulsing up and down of a wave is probably the norm since there is no organized LLC. Does this pulsing have implications for development chance say in 3 or 4 days - probably not at this point unless it goes poof!

NHC mentions the dry air and went with the 40/50 split - seems reasonable

so weaking tonight what i seen lastest sat pic could percentages go down at 2am?