ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Ok guys lets focus less on the posters and more on 97 . Anyway, 97 has made some slow progress today but I'm admittedly in the "believe it when I see it" mode, this season has me jaded lol. I expect continued slow progress and maybe formation into a tc towards Weds if it can survive.

[Hurricaneman]

If theres any low its at 62.5W between areas of convection, maybe that area will be the one to take over and develop as its closer to some convergence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If theres any low its at 62.5W between areas of convection, maybe that area will be the one to take over and develop as its closer to some convergence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Definitely not that far west. Radar shows it north of Barbados.

[Hurricaneman]

If theres any low its at 62.5W between areas of convection, maybe that area will be the one to take over and develop as its closer to some convergence

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Definitely not that far west. Radar shows it north of Barbados.

maybe it was a case of me following an eddy, if this is the area then there is no convergence with the center which means this isn't going to develop until it can get some convergence around the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html
~~~~~~~~~~~
I see 97L as stationary

[hurricaneCW]

It's getting better structurally and I see some nice outflow to the north. The combo of D-MIN, its location in the Eastern Caribbean, not to mention its large, broad circulation is what's causing the decrease in convection.

Give it another 48 hrs and we'll see what happens.

[cycloneye]

40%-50%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE
DECREASED THIS EVENING...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER ELONGATED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY.

[HurricaneDREW92]

It's getting better structurally and I see some nice outflow to the north. The combo of D-MIN, its location in the Eastern Caribbean, not to mention its large, broad circulation is what's causing the decrease in convection.

Give it another 48 hrs and we'll see what happens.

I think this board has a DMIN and DMAX in terms of excitement

[USTropics]

low-level vorticity building to the west now:

0 covergence though nothing to keep generating convection. micro-wave imagery reveals this is still poorly organized were it counts.

what ya think?

It definitely has some negatives but the low level vorticity has persisted for quite some time. There is still divergent flow aloft, which is encouraging strong up-welling and building of convection:



However, there's pockets of dry air to the south and north, and you can see the convection waning out to the east currently. The mid level dry air is preventing any mid level vorticity to get started.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

From the 850mb vort you can see the low level center is definitely stretched out, and it may end up being the western side that takes over tonight.

In short, it's doing everything it needs to until it gets to the western Caribbean, then it'll have a better chance.

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html
~~~~~~~~~~~
I see 97L as stationary

Starting to remind me of Ophelia in 2011 which stalled out for two days before (re)organizing.

[Alyono]

It's getting better structurally and I see some nice outflow to the north. The combo of D-MIN, its location in the Eastern Caribbean, not to mention its large, broad circulation is what's causing the decrease in convection.

Give it another 48 hrs and we'll see what happens.

its the lack of low level convergence that caused the convective decrease

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It's getting better structurally and I see some nice outflow to the north. The combo of D-MIN, its location in the Eastern Caribbean, not to mention its large, broad circulation is what's causing the decrease in convection.

Give it another 48 hrs and we'll see what happens.

its the lack of low level convergence that caused the convective decrease

So it's dead again?

[cycloneye]

Alyono,do you see a change of pattern that will cause 97L to move towards Hispanola? I ask because the TWO mentioned that.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Stewart said this was likely to track west over the coming days. Pasch says west-northwest near or into Hispaniola. Not sure why the discrepancy.

[Hurricaneman]

low-level vorticity building to the west now:

0 covergence though nothing to keep generating convection. micro-wave imagery reveals this is still poorly organized were it counts.

what ya think?

It definitely has some negatives but the low level vorticity has persisted for quite some time. There is still divergent flow aloft, which is encouraging strong up-welling and building of convection:

http://i.imgur.com/B7eg5ey.gif

However, there's pockets of dry air to the south and north, and you can see the convection waning out to the east currently. The mid level dry air is preventing any mid level vorticity to get started.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

From the 850mb vort you can see the low level center is definitely stretched out, and it may end up being the western side that takes over tonight.

In short, it's doing everything it needs to until it gets to the western Caribbean, then it'll have a better chance.

I think the area of higher vorticity to the west is the area to watch around 63.5W since there seems to be t-storms seem to be firing there and the convergence seems to be closer to that area

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

Think we'll see 50/80 at 8pm but that may be a bit liberal.

It's very liberal, especially the fact that it's entering a bad spot to be in historically for a developing tropical cyclone. Cyclones don't form quickly all the time, sometimes it takes days for systems to develop. Patience, young grasshopper, patience.

The E Caribbean has been a common area for formation during the last decade. The John Hope rule is bunk. I've counted at least 12 storms that have formed in the EC in recent years

1. 2003 Claudette
2. 2003 Mindy
3. 2005 Dennis
4. 2005 Alpha
5. 2005 Gamma
6. 2006 Ernesto
7. 2007 Noel
8. 2008 Fay
9. 2008 Gustav
10. 2008 Omar
11. 2001 Emily
12. 2012 Rafeal

[Alyono]

Alyono,do you see a change of pattern that will cause 97L to move towards Hispanola? I ask because the TWO mentioned that.

If it develops. However, with development being delayed, I see a track threatening Jamaica, Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula

[jinftl]

Never was enough of a system to call dead - it's an area of investigation being monitored for potential development, which is more likely in a few days. Started the day with a 20%/30% chance of development and ending it at 40%/50%. almost half way to being alive! Potential is higher than it was this morning.

It's getting better structurally and I see some nice outflow to the north. The combo of D-MIN, its location in the Eastern Caribbean, not to mention its large, broad circulation is what's causing the decrease in convection.

Give it another 48 hrs and we'll see what happens.

its the lack of low level convergence that caused the convective decrease

So it's dead again?

[hurricanes1234]

So it's dead again?

No, it's unconscious. Should regain consciousness soon. May be revived by the electric, rejuvenating powers of diurnal maximum.