Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WeatherGuesser]

What is it ... 6 0 and 0 so far?

How unusual is that?


(Less storms is always better)

[euro6208]

Hasn't the WPAC been below normal in terms of ACE this season? I wonder if this could be like 1977. That year was rather inactive in the Atlantic, EPAC, and WPAC. However, the Atlantic did produce a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf. (Hurricane Anita)

Yes we are currently at 59.7

Normal Year to Date: 134

[Ntxw]

Something strange is going on. The MJO is in phase 1 (Kelvin wave actually moving through Africa which may signal something may try to form in the eastern MDR, maybe) but yet there is sinking air returning to the western Atlantic while rising air remains in the EPAC but weakening.

[ninel conde]

Something strange is going on. The MJO is in phase 1 (Kelvin wave actually moving through Africa which may signal something may try to form in the eastern MDR, maybe) but yet there is sinking air returning to the western Atlantic while rising air remains in the EPAC but weakening.

so much for the MJO saving the day.

[hurricanes1234]

Isn't the MJO supposed to make the Pacific favourable? Because with all this information of the MJO making the Pacific favourable because of rising air, I am yet to see something different, actually, the Pacific was more active a month ago.

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[ninel conde]

see my post about the cap at 10,000 feet. maybe the east pac is also capped

[Cyclenall]

What is it ... 6 0 and 0 so far?

How unusual is that?


(Less storms is always better)

For the first part, this is insanely unusual considering the setup of the tropics in the northern hemisphere. Read the last 6 pages of this thread to get the full understanding on this. For the 2nd part, its like having a hobby such as fishing or basketball and hoping you catch no fish (or little as possible) with no rewards and getting no hoops and never joining a team for the latter. Makes sense to me!

Something strange is going on. The MJO is in phase 1 (Kelvin wave actually moving through Africa which may signal something may try to form in the eastern MDR, maybe) but yet there is sinking air returning to the western Atlantic while rising air remains in the EPAC but weakening.

People here had a feeling that might happen but couldn't explain it. The MJO is aware of our little game . BTW, is that product generated from human craft (the drawing of the contours, are they custom?) or is it 100% computer generated?

[tolakram]

It must be an older graph, or drawn on an older sat pic.

Can someone post the source to that image?

Here's the latest phase diagram, also posted in the global models thread.



I get these from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[Ntxw]

It is from the CPC's MJO page. Time stamp has August 31st which is the latest date MJO information is posted so I don't think it's an older image.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

[Alyono]

thoughts are

Based upon some of the things on the T storms list... this season may be well below average. Some talk of strong westerly shear setting up in mid September

[cycloneye]

The record for the latest first hurricane formation is approaching fast.

[ninel conde]

thoughts are

Based upon some of the things on the T storms list... this season may be well below average. Some talk of strong westerly shear setting up in mid September

yep, winterlike pattern will set up.

[ninel conde]

The record for the latest first hurricane formation is approaching fast.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/14v63op.jpg

satellite era is best to go by. 90% chance no cane by sept 11. 25% of no cane at all this year. may as well set some records now.

[Ntxw]

I just updated the latest ACE count in the associated thread, according to it we are nearing the 20%mark and will likely reach it this week if not below (unless 97L gets going and is a large sprawling storm) we will reach the sub 20% threshold as well as possibly the latest a hurricane has formed in a season (satellite) given that there is no consensus model support for anything substantial the next 3-5 days.

To add the MJO/Kelvin couplet is moving through Africa and will soon be in or near the IO (subsidence is moving into the EPAC and far western Atlantic). Remember though there is a connection to IO convection and TC activity in the tropical Atlantic so all is not lost. Will it be able to overcome the greater power that has dominated or not I do not know but if we were to get genesis from the CV system I would think the next week would be the best shot. MJO is at or nearing peak before waning according to most guidance.

[NDG]

thoughts are

Based upon some of the things on the T storms list... this season may be well below average. Some talk of strong westerly shear setting up in mid September

yep, winterlike pattern will set up.

Where you guys get this, NCEP ensemble forecast is still calling for the eastern US/western Atlantic trough pattern to be gone in the 7-14 day range if not longer.

[MetroMike]

If the current lack of activity continues there will most certainly have to be a different approach to preseason predictions come next year. A practice that really came into mainstream after the 2004 and 2005 Hurricane seasons.
It's a shame that so far people that chase hurricanes and do real time research cannot conduct their experiments. How can we really learn anything without test subjects so to speak?

[galaxy401]

Oh my three yellow circles in the Atlantic! So weird to see right now!

[ninel conde]

major news!! joe bastardi will be on fox news between 4-5 pm eastern to let us know how the remainder of the cane season will unfold.

[hurricaneCW]

I still think many people are going to eat crow by the time the season is over. Things are def picking up with 97L, now 98L, and both the gfs and euro showing a storm next week.

And again remember it only takes one storm to do massive damage and I think we are far from finished.

[ninel conde]

2 minutes to JB!! SAYS the newfoundland wheel is coming and this was like the 50's!!