ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

No. I doubt they will upgrade it until at least tomorrow. The convection needs to persist for at least another 12 hours or so. Looking good though. An upgrade at 5 am/11 am tomorrow is possible IF the convection persists and IF we can confirm via satellite, surface obs, and/or recon that this definitely has a closed low level circulation.

Is a single west wind report enough to initiate advisories though?

Recon will be up on Tuesday afternoon so you can discount that part.

[Fego]

Barbados' radar.

http://i41.tinypic.com/20h68sl.png

['CaneFreak]

We should have enough surface observations to know before tomorrow afternoon.

Recon will be up on Tuesday afternoon so you can discount that part.

[Alyono]

WARNING: TOTAL AMATEUR
6hrs: 30/40
12hrs: 30/50
18hrs: 30/50
24hrs: 40/70
36hrs: 60/80
48hrs: 80/90
60hrs: 40kts
72hrs: 45kts
96hrs: 60kts
120hrs: 70kts

A question I have... why do people insist on only giving intensity forecasts? Why not stick with track where there is a higher level of skill? There is little, if any, skill in intensity forecasting for the pros. Just something to consider

I agree predicting intensity is problematic,but what are your thoughts on 97L's track.

May want to watch this on the Florida Peninsula if this develops

[pgoss11]

It's not that often a system crosses through the Hebert box and doesn't hit any land. A lot will depend on how deep that trough will be. Interesting days ahead for sure.

[caneman]

I agree and this could be a huge score for CMC and NAM.

[gatorcane]

Upper-Level Low over Hispaniola is definitely moving noticeably west so probably won't be as much shear for the invest as originally thought as 97L moves westward into the Eastern Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days. Animated Water Vapor loop GIF below:

[cycloneye]

Tweet from Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits 4m
The wind shear cited as a problem for 97L by many is not an issue. Why? Zonal TUTTs split in the face of heat. Convection was all it needed.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

As far as track goes I predict something similar to Charley in 2004 but strength unknown but if I had a gun against my head I would say minimal hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SeGaBob]

Convection seems to be weakening a little bit on the NW side of the system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

its not close to a TD as many here are saying

we still just have a broad low. Give it time

[Hurricaneman]

Convection seems to be weakening a little bit on the NW side of the system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

D-MIN is a probable cause, convection should come back as strong as before at D-Max

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Fego]

T numbers don't show any progress.

01/1745 UTC 14.0N 60.6W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

[SeGaBob]

Ignore this post I did a quote wrong.

[cycloneye]

T numbers don't show any progress.

01/1745 UTC 14.0N 60.6W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

That is because that position is not the right one. Best Track has it at 146N, 597W.

[SeGaBob]

Convection seems to be weakening a little bit on the NW side of the system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

D-MIN is a probable cause, convection should come back as strong as before at D-Max

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah that's what I figured...I'd guess a 50-50 chance this develops.

[caribsue]

Barbados' radar.
http://i41.tinypic.com/20h68sl.png

Radar is down in Barbados that picis from Aug 27
In the south of the island skies are getting darker and wind seems tobe from NNW

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see any signs of an LLC at the surface on Sat. but you can clearly see an MLC near 61.5w 15N and another one decaying a degree or so east.

['CaneFreak]

Yes. It is very broad. However, intense latent heating in these kinds of conditions can quickly tighten up the circulation. I do know what you are saying though and I agree. It may still be a few more days yet.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

its not close to a TD as many here are saying

we still just have a broad low. Give it time

[Alyono]

T numbers don't show any progress.

01/1745 UTC 14.0N 60.6W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

That is because that position is not the right one. Best Track has it at 146N, 597W.

the BT is also not right. The "center" is closer to 62W now. Shows up very clearly on visible imagery