ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Stewart raises the development chances

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011748
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneDREW92]

Wow did not expect that much of an uptick

[Blown Away]

Low no attached to TAFB 72 hour forecast, but no "Possible Cyclone" attached...I suspect that will change if 97L continues to improve...

[HurricaneDREW92]

Lol well it better pick up in a hurry

It will. 60% by next 2pm TWO. Lean back and watch stormlover2013.

Ugh...off by 10%. Still think a Carolinas storm

[beoumont]

I hate to be an optimist; but it is Labor Day weekend. The rapidly retreating upper low approaching the Windward Passage is a real good sign; should build upper ridge in eastern and central Caribbean.

[SouthDadeFish]

TCFA issued:

[hurricanes1234]

What?! A TCFA at 40%?

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/3397/vr9.gif

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 60.5W
TO 14.9N 67.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 60.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LOWER WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85
DEGREES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 021500Z.//9713083012 145N 485W 20
9713083018 146N 500W 20
9713083100 146N 515W 20
9713083106 146N 530W 20
9713083112 146N 545W 25
9713083118 146N 560W 25
9713090100 146N 575W 25
9713090106 146N 590W 25
9713090112 146N 605W 30

[Hammy]

Westward extension of convection over the Caribbean is weakening so it looks to be trying to consolidate.

[ninel conde]

I hate to be an optimist; but it is Labor Day weekend. The rapidly retreating upper low approaching the Windward Passage is a real good sign; should build upper ridge in eastern and central Caribbean.

http://imageshack.us/a/img542/2008/njq.gif

there is another strong ULL just north of 97. is that aiding the convection? upper air looks pretty chaotic.

[SouthDadeFish]

The TCFA has the center pretty far west... I think it may relocate/get pulled back to the east where there is stronger inflow.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 597W, 30, 1008, LO

[HurricaneDREW92]

Westward extension of convection over the Caribbean is weakening so it looks to be trying to consolidate.

We may have a TC sooner than we thought

[Sanibel]

I think it is organizing. The ULL to the west looks like it is weakening.

[SouthDadeFish]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2013090118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 597W, 30, 1008, LO

Ha, right after I post the TCFA is too far west best track says 59.7, which seems much more reasonable.

[msbee]

I'm concerned about the Caribbean islands South of me.
Heavy rainfall can bring bad flooding and landslides.

[cycloneye]

Moving slow.

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

[ConvergenceZone]

Moving slow.

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

That's a change from previous systems. Seems like lately everything in this area had been moving too fast to get organized.....

[hurricanes1234]

Moving slow.

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

That's a change from previous systems. Seems like lately everything in this area had been moving too fast to get organized.....

Do you think this could help it develop better?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Definitely better than moving at 25kts

Moving slow.

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

That's a change from previous systems. Seems like lately everything in this area had been moving too fast to get organized.....

Do you think this could help it develop better?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.